Rubric DSTA OUTLOOK EVENT 2017 DSTA OUTLOOK 2017 EVENT 1 www.ecb.europa.eu
Welcome ABN Amro Bank Barclays Capital Citibank Commerzbank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC France ING Bank Jefferies Natixis NatWest Markets Nordea Nomura Rabobank Santander GB&M Société Générale 16 Primary Dealers, Single Market Specialists and CP Dealers DSTA Presentation 2 Outlook 2017
Today’s programme 15.00 hrs Welcome Key note speaker: Stephen Cohen (BlackRock) Presentation Outlook 2017 by Niek Nahuis (Agent DSTA) Panel discussion, led by Peter Nijsse (BNG) DSTA Awards by Regine Doornbos (Head dealingroom, DSTA) 17.15 hrs Drinks & Bites DSTA Presentation 3 Outlook 2017
Rubric Niek Nahuis 2017 The Hague, 15 December 2016 4 www.ecb.europa.eu
Economic and budgetary outlook
Economic performance: strong Contribution to growth (% GDP) 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Household consumption Capital formation Government consumption Net exports GDP growth DSTA Presentation 6 Outlook 2017
Results structural reforms underpinning growth Labour market Housing market (% labour force, seasonally adjusted) (% y-o-y) 9 2 60 10 1,8 8 8 40 1,6 6 1,4 4 7 20 1,2 2 0 0 6 1 -2 0,8 -20 5 -4 0,6 -6 0,4 -40 4 -8 0,2 -60 -10 3 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 Unemployment rate (LHS) Job vacancies (RHS) Transactions (LHS) Prices (RHS) DSTA Presentation 7 Outlook 2017
Deficit and debt 70% 1% 68% 0% 66% -1% 64% -2% 62% -3% 60% -4% 58% -5% 56% -6% 54% -7% 52% 50% -8% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EMU-debt (% GDP; LHS) EMU-balance (% GDP; RHS) DSTA Presentation 8 Outlook 2017
Deficit and debt 70% 1% 68% 0% 66% -1% 64% -2% 62% -3% 60% -4% 58% -5% 56% -6% 54% -7% 52% 50% -8% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EMU-debt (% GDP; LHS) EMU-balance (% GDP; RHS) DSTA Presentation 9 Outlook 2017
Deficit and debt 70% 1% 68% 0% 66% -1% 64% -2% 62% -3% 60% -4% 58% -5% 56% -6% 54% -7% 52% 50% -8% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EMU-debt (% GDP; LHS) EMU-balance (% GDP; RHS) DSTA Presentation 10 Outlook 2017
Budgetary comparison Euro area (% GDP) 180 EMU debt Greece 160 140 Portugal Italy 120 Belgium Spain France 100 Euro area Slovenia 80 Ireland Germany Finland Austria Netherlands 60 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 Budget deficit 1 Lithuania Slovakia 40 Latvia Luxembourg 20 Estonia 0 DSTA Presentation 11 Outlook 2017
Looking back on funding 2016 12
Looking back: lower than expected funding 35 28-33 30 25-30 25 26.6 20 18.9 15 10 5 0 capital market range money market range DSTA Presentation 13 Outlook 2017
Money market changes explained 35 ---- 30 ---- 25 ---- 20 DSL ---- buy 15 backs ---- 10 5 0 Outlook 2016 Cash effects Cash effects Sale of State Change cash Latest update 2015 2016 owned enterprises collateral DSTA Presentation 14 Outlook 2017
Suppose over the next five years … … the budget improves further; … debt levels keep declining; … rates gradually increase; … we keep the MM at 25 bn. How will this effect our the funding need? How to fill in our CM? Major challenges may lie ahead … DSTA Presentation 15 Outlook 2017
Funding returns to pre-crisis levels ? 100 70 90 65 80 60 70 55 60 50 50 40 45 30 40 20 35 10 0 30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Money market volume ultimo year ( € bn; LHS) Capital market issuance ( € bn; LHS) EMU debt (% GDP; RHS) DSTA Presentation 16 Outlook 2017
Funding plan 2017
Funding need 2017 ( € bn) Funding need Capital market redemptions 2017 42.5 Money market ultimo 2016 18.9 Cash collateral ultimo 2016 17.3 2.0 Cash surplus 76.8 Total funding need 2017 DSTA Presentation 19 19 Outlook 2017
Funding need 2017 ( € bn) Funding need Capital market redemptions 2017 42.5 Money market ultimo 2016 18.9 Cash collateral ultimo 2016 17.3 2.0 Cash surplus 76.8 Total funding need 2017 DSTA Presentation 20 20 Outlook 2017
Funding need 2017 ( € bn) Funding need Capital market redemptions 2017 42.5 Money market ultimo 2016 18.9 Cash collateral change in 2017 0 2.0 Cash surplus 59.4 Total funding need 2017 DSTA Presentation 21 21 Outlook 2017
Funding plan 2017: split CM and MM Funding ( € bn) Capital market 30 - 35 Money market 24.4 – 29.4 Total funding requirement 2017 59.4 DSTA Presentation 22 Outlook 2017
Funding plan 2017: redemption profile ( € bn) 45 40 35 On-the-run 5-year 30 25 New 7-year 3 - 5.5 in longer dated off-the-runs 20 New 10-year 15 10 5 -00 10-year DSL 5-year DSL 3-year DSL USD DSL 20-year DSL 30-year DSL 7-year DSL DSTA Presentation 23 Outlook 2017
Capital market issuance in 2017 Indicative amount DSL ( € bn) New DSL 2027 (DDA) 15 Reopening existing on-the-run DSL 2022 7 New DSL 2024 (DDA)* 5.0 – 7.5 Reopening longer dated off-the-run DSLs 3.0 – 5.5 Total DSL funding 30 - 35 * Will be reopened again in 2018 to reach at least € 15 bn DSL auctions: 2 nd and 4 th Tuesday of the month DTC auctions: 1 st and 3 rd Monday of the month DSTA Presentation 24 Outlook 2017
Issuance calendars Q1 2017 Month Date Details Target volume ( € bn) Re-opening DSL January 10 0.75 -1.25 15 January 2047 Re-opening DSL January 24 2 – 3 15 January 2022 DDA date to be New 10-year DSL DDA volume to be February announced in due time 15 July 2027 announced in due time Re-opening DSL March 14 2 - 3 15 January 2022 Issuing date Settlement date 3-month programme 6-month programme 2-1-2017 4-1-2017 31-3-2017 30-6-2017 16-1-2017 18-1-2017 31-3-2017 30-6-2017 6-2-2017 8-2-2017 31-7-2017 20-2-2017 22-2-2017 28-4-2017 31-7-2017 6-3-2017 8-3-2017 31-8-2017 20-3-2017 22-3-2017 31-5-2017 31-8-2017 25
Q & A plaatje Panel discussion
Q & A plaatje DSTA Awards
DSTA Awards (I) Top 3 CP-dealers 1 Rabobank 2 RBS 3 Citibank DSTA Presentation 28 Outlook 2017
DSTA Awards (II) Top 3 DTCs 1 ABN Amro Bank 2 ING Bank 3 Nordea DSTA Presentation 29 Outlook 2017
DSTA Awards (III) Top 3 DSLs 1 RBS 2 Jefferies 3 HSBC France DSTA Presentation 30 Outlook 2017
Please join us for drinks & bites DSTA Outlook Event 2016 11 December 2015
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