DRAFT have flocked to the city. Additionally, lower birth rates have - PDF document

Executive Summary Recent changes in the city of Denver have influenced the landscape of Denver Public Schools (DPS). The population boom has led to a more affluent population and greater housing demand, resulting in rapidly rising housing costs throughout the city. The population has also gotten younger, as young adults, who are less likely to have children, DRAFT have flocked to the city. Additionally, lower birth rates have impacted city demographics, following the trend of the United States overall. For DPS, the implications are numerous. This year’s Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) explores these implications at the district and regional levels through the lenses of enrollment, capacity, performance, and equity. It also uses current and historical trends to forecast where these dynamics may take DPS over the next 5 years. The data throughout the report this year tells a story of a district on the cusp of change, and the details are vital for strategic planning. Of these stories, the following are the most prevalent: • Conti tinued elementary ry enro rollment t declines in the Southw thwest, t, North thwes west, and Centr tral regions of the city ty will p put t incre reased pressure re on schools, and may impact t the ability ty of schools to provide programs ms, specials, , and support t servi rvices. . • Conti tinued enro rollme ment t growth wth in t the Near r Northea theast t and Far r Nort rtheast regions will n necessitate tate str trategies tegies for r managing capacity ty. • Students of color and FRL students ts att ttend high-performi forming schools at a lower r rate te than White te and non-FRL students. Our communities, schools, and district leaders have the ability to determine how these stories will unfold over the coming years. The details in this report can help inform policies that will ensure the stories develop in a way that is beneficial for every student.

Geographic Organization The SRA provides a district-wide overview followed by an in-depth analysis of the 6 planning regions shown on the map below. These regions correspond with the Regional Networks created in 2019. Denver Public Schools Planning Regions and Regional Networks DRAFT Far Northeast = FNE Near Northeast = NNE Central = CEN Northwest = NW Southwest = SW Southeast = SE Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019 2

Geographic Organization Denver Public Schools Board Districts and Planning Regions DRAFT 1. Scott Baldermann 2. Angela Cobian 3. Carrie Olson 4. Jennifer Bacon 5. Brad Laurvick Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019 3

Geographic Organization Denver Neighborhoods DRAFT Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019 4

Historical Enrollment Overall DPS enrollment increased marginally from 2018 to 2019, primarily due to new growth in ECE. However, elementary declines and slowing middle school growth are likely to lead to overall enrollment declines in the next few years. Total DPS ECE-12 Enrollment 93,815 100,000 93,356 92,984 92,331 91,429 90,150 87,398 84,424 90,000 81,870 79,423 23,500 24,600 25,221 25,920 80,000 22,641 DRAFT 21,530 20,670 20,077 19,430 70,000 18,889 60,000 18,557 18,887 19,341 19,677 17,640 19,978 20,263 17,049 16,343 15,662 50,000 40,000 30,000 43,851 43,721 42,768 43,329 42,619 41,729 40,766 41,448 40,470 39,296 20,000 10,000 6,866 5,850 6,320 6,212 6,180 6,161 6,088 6,428 5,576 5,627 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ECE Elementary Middle High DPS has nearly 1,000 0 fewer er elemen enta tary ry • students dents in 2019 than it did in 2018 DPS ECE-12 Enrollment Percent Growth • The rate of elementary decline has 3.5 doubled in the past few years. 3.1 • Middle and high school are still growing, 1.4 but the rate of growth has halved in the 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 past 5 years. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Much of the growth this year comes • from ECE growth (driven by additional community partner seats). Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019 5

Forecast Enrollment Change District enrollment is forecast to decline by 3% overall by 2024, but some areas of the city will still experience substantial growth. 5 Year Reside Forecast by Ed Level • District wide 93,815 93,675 93,636 93,149 92,062 90,938 enrollment is forecast 25,920 26,367 26,966 27,461 27,316 to decline by 3% by 27,087 DRAFT 2024. 20,263 20,237 19,866 19,357 18,802 18,413 • Elementary enrollment is 47,632 47,071 46,804 46,331 45,944 45,438 forecast to decline ine by 2,194 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 students dents (5%) . ES MS HS • Middle school enrollment is 2024 Foreca recast: st: Change in Number of forecast to Students from 2019 decline ine by 1,850 50 students dents (9%). • High school enrollment is forecast to increa ease se by 1,167 7 stude dents nts (5%). Note: 2024 forecast holds the number of ECE students and students living outside Denver, but attending a DPS school, as a constant number (i.e. 2018 = 2024). Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019 6

Regional Growth by Education Level Enrollment growth at all education levels is forecast to be primarily in Stapleton, Gateway, and DIA. 2024 Forecast: ELEMENTARY DRAFT • Stapleton, DIA, and Gateway are forecast to 2024 Forecast: have the most growth at MIDDLE all ed levels through 2024. • The Southwest and Central regions and the Montbello neighborhood are forecast to have the most significant 2024 Forecast: declines. HIGH Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019 7

Demographics Over Time The percentage of FRL students in DPS has decreased by 9 percentage points since 2010, and this trend is likely to continue going forward as Denver continues to change. Race & FRL Status as a Percent of Total DPS Student Population 100% 73% 69% 64% 59% 56% 80% 53% 60% 26% 23% 20% DRAFT 40% 14% 14% 13% 8% 8% 7% 20% 0% FRL* African American Hispanic White Other 2010 2015 2019 • 9 percentage point drop in FRL, 5 percentage points since 2015 • 6 percentage point drop in Hispanic balanced by White increase of same amount Percent of Total DPS Student Population by Grade and Demographic Group 69% 67% 100% 59% 58% 54% 46% 80% 32% 25% 20% 60% 14% 13% 13% 40% 8% 8% 8% 20% 0% FRL* African American Hispanic White Other K 06 09 • Kindergarten class has 10 percentage points fewer FRL students than 6 th and 9 th grade cohort • The share of Hispanic kindergarten students is 12 percentage points lower than the 9 th grade share • Inversely, the share or White kindergarten is students 12 percentage points higher than 9 th grade *FRL is made up of students receiving free lunch and reduced price lunch. In addition to the overall FRL declines, the proportion of students receiving free lunch is declining, while the proportion receiving reduced price lunch is increasing. 8 Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019

Demographics & Performance Demographic discrepancies in the percentage of students by race that attend a high- performing school highlight inequities across the district. District Utilization of ECE-12 Seats Based on SPF Rating and Demographics District Demographic Distribution 53% 26% 13% 8% Distinguished (18 schools) 26% 54% 10% 10% DRAFT (63) Meets Expectations 53% 27% 12% 8% (80) Accredited on Watch 53% 24% 14% 8% Accredited on Priority Watch 62% 15% 15% 8% (29) Accredited on Probation 69% 12% 14% 6% (31) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Hispanic White African American Other • Hispanic students attend red and orange schools at a considerably higher rate than their expected share • White students attend blue schools at more than double what would be expected in equal distribution • African American and other minority groups, however, are closer to equal distribution at the district level. District rict Wide Utilizat ization ion of ECE-12 12 Seat ats s Based sed on SPF Rating ing and d FRL Overall FRL Distribution 64% 36% (18 schools) Distinguished 32% 68% (63) Meets Expectations 62% 38% (80) Accredited on Watch 67% 33% (29) Accredited on Priority Watch 73% 27% Accredited on Probation 80% 20% (31) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% FRL Non-FRL • FRL students make up 64% of the student population, only 32% attend a high- performing school Note: Blue and green schools are classified as high-performing. Yellow, orange, and red schools are classified as low performing. 9 Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019