DOI NG MORE WI T H L E SS: I MPROVE D CONF I DE NCE L E - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DOI NG MORE WI T H L E SS: I MPROVE D CONF I DE NCE L E VE L S VI A RE DE SI GNE D AMMUNI T I ON QUAL I F I CAT I ON T E ST I NG A me tho d to impro ve sma ll a rms a mmunitio n q ua lific a tio n fo r use in e xisting ADF sma ll a rms we a po nry using sta tistic a l te st te c hniq ue s a pplie d within the US De fe nse De pa rtme nt Mr Ro y He nry / Dr K e ith Jo ine r CSC

SCOPE • Why T his • Ba c kg ro und • Curre nt T e st - DMSP • Pro b le m • Histo ry – 6000 ro unds • Pro po sa l • Old vs Ne w – Ro und / T e st De sig n • Summa ry • Re c o mme nda tio ns

WHY T HI S • ADF de sire to I I S ne w a mmunitio n • I wa nte d to unde rsta nd the te st re g ime • T e sts a ppe a re d unne c e ssa rily re pe titive • Oppo rtunity to study it – a nd a pply so und princ iple s to re de sig n the te st • Dr K e ith Jo ine r’ s Adva nc e d T e st a nd E va lua tio n Co urse

BACK GROUND • Po lic y : ADFDMSP-1QMS (E NG) 12-8-031 Safe ty and suitab ility fo r Australian se rvic e (S3) asse ssme nt fo r small arms we apo n syste ms • Pre do mina te ly b a se d o ff two sta nda rds: ANAG 4608 Ammunitio n b e lo w 12.7mm Cal De sig n Safe ty Re q uire me nts • NAT O ST and Safe ty and Suitab ly fo r Se rvic e O AC / 225 D/ 14 E valuatio n Pro c e dure s fo r F uture NAT O Small Arms We apo ns • NAT Syste ms , 6 Jul 01 • E ndsta te • “ Ob tain Suffic ie nt OQE to suppo rt T e c hnic al Ce rtific atio n o f syste m (we apo n and ammunitio n) ” • T he syste m is the re fo re sa fe to c o nduc t ma nne d firing , use r tria ls o r intro duc e ne w a mmunitio n or we a po ns into se rvic e .

CURRE NT T E ST : DMSP • Outline s the fo ur diffe re nt te sts: • Ma nne d firing c le a ra nc e • Use r T ria l • Pro visio na l De sig n Autho rity / T C with Co nc ) • F ull De sig n Autho rity / T e c h Ce rt) • Amb ig uo us a nd c o ntra dic to ry in pa rts • 6000 ro und “e ndura nc e ” re q uire me nt *T a ke n fro m DSMP, T a b le 2

CURRE NT T E ST : ROUND COUNT A m o unt o f ro und s re q uire d IA W DMSP fo r e a c h sta g e • One Ammunitio n T ype 20000 • Minimum 18 260 r ounds 18000 re q uire d (3 we a po ns) 18000 16000 • With Suppre ssor – ne w 14000 Ste yr ROUNDS 12000 • 36000 ro unds R OF 10000 NUMBE • 1200 ma g a zine s 8000 • ~5h to lo a d (2 ro unds / 6000 6000 se c o nd) 3960 4000 • 12000 r ounds pe r 2000 1320 we a po n – inc re dib le 240 20 use a g e 0 T e c hnic a l Ma nne d F iring Use r T ria l Ma nne d F iring Ad vic e S3 fo r Pro visio na l De sig n S3 fo r full De sig n Ac c e p ta nc e (One T e mpe ra ture ) Ac c e p ta nc e One we a po n T hre e We a po ns

Bre a kd o wn o f the 6000 Ro und s 7000 PROBL E M 6000 • T e st Pa ra me te rs: 1050 • E xte rna l Ba llistic s 5000 • E ndura nc e • T e mpe ra ture a sse ssme nt • F unc tio n a nd Ca sua lty 1800 4000 • 6000 ro unds fire d o ve r fo ur disc re te te mpe ra ture ra ng e s • -46 O C 3000 • -6 O C 1050 • +21 O C • +71 O C 2000 1050 • T e st Outputs: • Muzzle Ve lo c ity 1000 • Ac c ura c y (Gro up) • MPI shift 1050 • E je c tio n Pa tte rn 0 • We a po n / Ammunitio n fa ilure s T e mp .-46 oC T e mp .-6 oC T e mp 21 oC T e mp 21 oC T e mp 71 oC

HI ST ORY - 6000 ROUNDS Quirk o f histo ry whic h ha s b e e n a pplie d to a mmunitio n q ua lific a tio n te sting Pro duc tio n T e sting , L o t a c c e pta nc e , Se rvic e a b ility Re g ime s T e sts a re We a pon F oc use d 2007 US T OP 3- 2- 045 1995 Ar my(AUST ) 6443 1987 M4A1 Mil Spe c 2001 NAT O D/ 14 Small Ar ms – Hand and Austr alian Ste yr F 88 MIL - C- 70599 Shoulde r We apons “ de te rmine the func tio nal life o f the we apo n and Pro duc tio n L o t Pro duc tio n L o t “ de te rmine the func tio ning and Ac c e ptanc e its c o mpo ne nt parts. …data he lps e stab lish Ac c e ptanc e e nduranc e pe rfo rmanc e o f the 5 in e ve ry 500 lo g istic al re q uire me nts fo r parts sto c kag e and 1 in e ve ry 7500 we apo n b e havio ur and we apo ns QA pro g ram re plac e me nt sc he dule s… ” se rvic e ab ility o f all parts ”

ANAL OGY F ue l is the ‘ a mmunitio n’ fo r the c a r (We a po n) Ca r ne e ds to drive lo ng dista nc e (6000km) witho ut fa lling a pa rt Qua lity o f c a r b e ing te ste d, no t fue l Yo u do n’ t drive lo ng dista nc e a s a te st e a c h time yo u c ha ng e fue l pro vide rs…

PROPOSAL : AMMUNI T I ON S3 RE I MAGI NE D DOE inspire d mo de l o f the a mmunitio n q ua lific a tio n syste m • Assumptio ns: • OE M ha s q ua lifie d ro und • Ro und ha s unde rg o ne c e rtific a tio n/ c o mplia nc e a c tivitie s • I n pro duc tio n / use with o the r use rs Y4 – E je c tio n pa tte rn re duc e d in sc o pe a s de e me d q ua lita tive me a sure

PROPOSAL : I MPROVI NG ST AT I ST I CAL CONF I DE NCE • Use d Pro je c tile Ve lo c ity a s the b a sis • Ve lo c ity is dire c tly re la te d to g ro up size , a nd the re fo re MPI shift. Slo we r ve lo c itie s me a n the pro je c tile dro ps q uic ke r (a nd vic e ve rsa ) • Sta nda rd De via tio n o f 6m/ s wa s use d a s re pre se nta tive o f ma ss pro duc e d fa c to ry a mmunitio n • One sa mple e q ua te s to five ro unds

PROPOSAL : DOE I NSPI RE D RE SUL T

OL D VS NE W ROUND COUNT COMPARI SON Curre nt vs Propose d Ammunition Usa g e 20000 • 92% re duc tion in 18000 ro unds / te sting 18000 16000 • Re duc e d 14000 • L a b o ur 12000 • L a b o ra to ry time 10000 • F unding 8000 • Wa ste 6000 3960 • Sa ving s c a n b e 4000 re inve ste d in o the r 1380 1140 2000 240 220 20 20 a re a s 0 T e c hnic a l Ma nne d F iring Use r T ria l Ma nne d F iring S3 fo r Pro visio na l De sig n S3 fo r full De sig n Advic e (One Ac c e pta nc e Ac c e pta nc e T e mpe ra ture ) Curre nt DMSP Pro po se d DOE Mo d e l

OL D VE RSE S NE W T E ST COMPARI SON • Gre e n = simila r • Ora ng e = mo difie d • Re d = re mo ve d • Mo re stre a mline d • 18260 vs 1400 Ro unds

SUMMARY • Pro po se d T e st re g ime de mo nstra te s tha t te st da ta q ua lity is no t c o mpro mise d a nd a mo re info rme d a ppro a c h c a n b e ta ke n fo r full te c hnic a l c e rtific a tio n • T he re se a rc h fo und the 6000-ro und pe r we a po n re q uire me nt pro b a b ly de rive d fro m we a po n q ua lific a tio n sta nda rds ra the r tha n a mmunitio n q ua lific a tio n sta nda rds. • T he re se a rc h ha s pro po se s a first-princ iple d a nd sta tistic a lly rig o ro us ra tio na le fo r suc h S3 te sting b a se d o n wha t the S3 o utput re spo nse s sho uld b e a nd the use o f U.S. Do D de sig n-o f-e xpe rime nt te c hniq ue s. • T he histo ric a l c o nte xt c o mb ine d with the a na lysis a tte mpts to sho w tha t e ndura nc e te sting sho uld b e b y e xc e ptio n o nly.

RE COMME NDAT I ONS • ADF ha s a n o ppo rtunity to re visit the c urre nt sma ll a rms a mmunitio n S3 te sting pro c e dure (DMSP, 2015) to : • re mo ve the ide ntifie d a mb ig uitie s a nd inc o nsiste nc ie s • impro ve its a pplic a b ility, • re mo ve the de fa ult e ndura nc e re q uire me nt • spe c ify sta tistic a lly g uide d te sting within re q uire d c o nfide nc e limits to pro vide a mo re info rme d o utc o me so a s to a c hie ve a signific ant r e duc tion in te st time and r e sour c e s • se e k US AT E C DOE disc ussio n to c o nfirm o ur a ppro a c h

DOI NG MORE WI T H L E SS: I MPROVE D CONF I DE NCE L E VE L S VI A RE DE SI GNE D AMMUNI T I ON QUAL I F I CAT I ON T E ST I NG Mr Ro y He nry / Dr K e ith Jo ine r CSC Ba c kg ro und Pro po sa l Curre nt T e st - DMSP Old vs Ne w T e st Pro b le m Summa ry Histo ry – 6000 ro unds Re c o mme nda tio ns