District of Columbia Office of Planning POPULATION TRENDS April 26, 2016 presentation
Renewed Population Growth Between 2000 and 2015 the District added 100,000 people. Total Population as of 2015 was 672,228 900,000 Highest District Population People Living in the District 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 Forecasted Growth 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2 Source: US Census Bureau and MWCOG Cooperative Forecast
Between 2000 and 2015 households increased citywide with the highest levels of growth in: d c f Mount Vernon Triangle a e g a Capital Riverfront b U Street c b Columbia Heights d NoMa e Logan Circle f Foggy Botuom g Source: MWCOG Cooperative Forecast 3
Births and Deaths in the District 10,000 9,264 8,000 Annual Births Annual Deaths 6,000 4,698 4,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: DC Department of Health 4
Migration to the District 10,000 Net International Migration 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Migration -10,000 Net Domestic Migration Source: US Census Bureau 5
Median Income in the District $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Source: US Census Bureau 2015 Dollars 6
Racial Composition of the District Decennial data Annual data 70% 60% Black Population 50% 40% White Population 30% 20% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: DC State Data Center 7
Educational Attainment 18 to 24 year olds 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 25 and up 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Less than HS High School Some College Bachelors and Above Source: US Census Bureau 2014 1 year ACS 8
Race and Ethnicity in the District 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8 Source: US Census Bureau 2014 5 year ACS Other Population White Population Latino Population Asian Population Black Population 9
Poverty in the District 2005-2009 2010-2014 Percent of People in Poverty Percent of People in Poverty 42% - 95% 42% - 95% 27% - 41% 27% - 41% 12% - 26% 12% - 26% 2% - 11% 2% - 11% Source: US Census Bureau 5 year ACS 10
Median Income in the District 2005-2009 2010-2014 $136,000 - $210,000 $95,000 - $231,000 $62,000 - $135,000 $68,000 - $94,000 $32,000 - $61,000 $39,000 - $67,000 $0 - $31,000 $0 - $38,000 11 Source: US Census Bureau 5 year ACS
Educational Attainment Percent of Population with a Bachelors Degree or Higher Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 67% - 95% 30%- 66% 2% - 30% Source: US Census Bureau 2014 5 year ACS 12
Population that Speaks English Less than “Very Well” Population that Speaks English Less than “Very Well” Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0% 12%-27% 7%-11% 2%-7% Source: US Census Bureau 2014 5 year ACS 0%-2% 13
Y outh Population (Ages 0-17) Declines in the District’s youth population between 2000 and 2010 have been reversed. 115,000 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 90,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year 14 Source: US Census Bureau Census and Estimates
Y outh Population Composition 120,000 100,000 14-17 Years 80,000 11-13 Years 60,000 5-10 Years 40,000 3-4 Years 20,000 0-2 Years 0 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 15 Source: DC State Data Center
Y outh Population Composition 120,000 Between 2000 and 2010 a 36% decline in 5-10 year olds accounted 100,000 14-17 Years for most of the youth population loss 80,000 11-13 Years 60,000 5-10 Years 40,000 3-4 Years 20,000 0-2 Years 0 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: DC State Data Center 16
Y outh Population Composition 120,000 Between 2010 and 2014 the 5-10 year old youth population has 100,000 14-17 Years grown by 16% 80,000 11-13 Years 60,000 5-10 Years 40,000 3-4 Years 20,000 0-2 Years 0 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: DC State Data Center 17
Y outh Population Trends Latino Youth 25,000 Under 5 10 to 14 years 20,000 15,000 10,000 5 to 9 years 15 to 19 years 5,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 White Youth Black Youth 25,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 18 Source: US Census Bureau
Y outh Population 2015 Currently the youth population is largest in mid-city neighborhoods and far south east. 26,579-51,558 9,199-26,579 2,529-9,199 Source: DC State Data Center 19
Continued Growth is Likely Over the next 15 years the District is likely to reach a new peak population above 800,000 residents. 900,000 Highest District Population People Living in the District 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 Forecasted Growth 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20 Year Source: US Census Bureau and MWCOG Cooperative Forecast
Between 2015 and 2030 households are expected to continue d to grow city wide with the highest levels in: h f g c NoMa a a Capitol Riverfront b e Florida Avenue Market g c b Fort Totuen d Hill East e Lower Georgia Ave f Waterfront g Edgewood h Brentwood Source: MWCOG Cooperative Forecast g 21
Y outh Population 2015-2022 Areas of Signifjcant Forecasted Growth Brightwood, Crestwood a a Petworth b Columbia Heights, Mt. b Pleasant, Pleasant Plains, Park View Congress Heights, c c Bellvue, Washington 3,279-5,281 Heights 1,772-3,278 575-1,771 22
forecast assumptions • By Age 5 • 1/3 of children are anticipated to move out of the District. • 1/2 of Children in Central Washington are anticipated to move to single family neighborhoods. • 1/5 are anticipated to stay in Central Washington, in single family neighborhoods with house prices between $500,000 and $800,000. • The positive trends regarding the aturaction and retention of households with children will continue. 23
Forecast limitations • OP’s Youth Population Model Limitations • Over sensitive to higher income households • Uses a previous long range forecast of population that underestimated growth. • Young professionals are likely under estimated for the next 10 years. 24
Key Takeawa ys • The District as a whole is growing, and our latest forecast suggests we will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. • The citywide median income is increasing, but these income gains remain unevenly distributed among the Wards. • Our youth population has been on a growth trend since 2010. • Since 2010, the population of 0-10 year olds has grown signifjcantly while the 11-17 age cohort has remained static. • There maybe opportunity to maximize the aging-up of elementary age children to try to capture them at middle and high school. 25
For More Information Contact Rogelio Flores Joy Phillips, PhD Facilities Planner Associate Director, DC State Data Center e: joy.phillips@dc.gov e: rogelio.fmores@dc.gov p: 202.442.7630 p: 202.741.0815
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