Novel food technologies at scale – disruptive implications EAT Forum 2019, Stockholm Jon Freeman, Research Group Director, RAND Europe 12 June 2019 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
For starters… • With your neighbour, please discuss: • What is your interest in the field of novel foods? • What challenges and/or opportunities do you think novel foods might pose to sustainable food systems? • What are some barriers to the introduction of novel foods at scale? How might that change? 2 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
monsitj - Fotolia We propose to use futures and foresight methods to assess how novel foods may be brought to scale 3 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
A macro-level systems map can help understand where disruptions may occur Sustainability -Health -Wealth -Environment Water Plant Animal Land Lab 4 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
The core assumption of the study …could lead to improved Changes in technology in sustainability outcomes inside the production base… and outside of the food system But it is quite hard to make direct link from a technology to sustainability impacts beyond the food system. We propose to break these topics apart to facilitate the analysis. 5 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Overarching concept of analysis Implications for sustainability: - Health - Wealth - Environment Literature Review Reporting System Tech Publicatio Food system scenario analysis Descriptio Horizon n Activity n Scan Which technology clusters are most likely to be taken forward? Identify Technology Clusters What are the wider technology convergences and food system Core Tech : a novel food itself e.g. lab STREA outcomes? cultured meat M Enabling Tech : supports the production Working with experts on food systems system e.g. LED lights for algal culture and technology from business, academia and government 6 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Example: extended map for cultured meat Water Expanded Plant Land Animal Lab systems maps can Milk/ Plant dairy help identify Meat Fish applications Cultured 3D printing of core and or In Cellular Vitro agricultur enabling Meat Fermentatio e n technologies Animal cell Biofabricatio Bioreactor Stem cells (biopsy, n genetic mod) Stem cell Scaffolding Genetically technology Biopsy modified cells 7 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Example: expanded system map for algae production INPUTS OUTPUTS PROCESSES Filtration (screens) Photobioreactors Strain selection Drying (solar, freeze, Floatation Vertical spray, drum, Genetic mod or Flat-plate column cooking) editing (.e.g. CRISPR) Centrifugation Tubular Internally- Coating (prevent illuminated Lighting (e.g. optical Grinding adhesion to PBR) Precipitation fibres, diodes) Water Heating/cooling Ion exchange system Make-up media (e.g. nitrate, urea) Aeration technique Ultrasonic vibration Closed system Macro- Micro- Hybrid algae algae/ Natural still water system (seaweed) cyanoba (e.g. pond) cteria Water PBR Open- air system Plant Animal Aquatic Land Polybags Lab 8 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Cultured meat Horizon scanning ‘Pro - methods Stem cell De- sumption ’: technology cellularised help identify plant scaffolds growing meat Fermentation at home emerging Bio-farms at Animal cell commercial Bio-farms run novel food biopsy scale by individuals technology, trends and future Known Emerging Emerging technologie technologie concepts concepts s s (?) 9 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Example: publication activity for cultured meat in the past five years Analysis of publication activity indicates how emergent a topic is 10 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Example: publication activity for algae technologies and food in the past five years 11 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Novel meat technologies are relatively nascent in the context of the underpinning technology Cultured meat examples – general publications 3D printing and Stem cell and cultured meat cultured meat 12 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Novel meat technologies are relatively nascent in the context of the underpinning technology Cultured meat examples – academic publications 3D printing and Stem cell and cultured meat cultured meat 13 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
CRISPR is a relatively emergent technology with respect to algae and food Algae examples – general publications Algae and Algae and bioreactors and CRISPR and food food 14 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Combining this analysis enables clusters of technology to be identified Core Technologies : a novel food itself e.g. lab cultured meat Enabling Technologies : support the production system e.g. LED lights for algal culture 15 15 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Technologies of interest can be analysed for impact and likely uptake Uptake 16 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Scenario analysis explores the scale and implications of novel food uptake • Futures scenarios allow the exploration of different ways in which technologies could be scaled, and what the beneficial or challenging implications of those technologies might be • Workshop discussions with experts on food systems and technologies would , for example, discuss: – How could diverse technologies converge to support the food system? – What are the likely timescales and conditions for change? – What might sustainability impacts be? – What might the unintended consequences be? 17 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
Enabling a rigorous analysis of how novel food systems could be scaled, and what the implications might be Sustainability -Health -Wealth -Environment Water Plant Animal Land Lab 18 RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL
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