Disruption: Tip of the Spear or Tail of the Dog Scott Townsley - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Disruption: Tip of the Spear or Tail of the Dog Scott Townsley scott@trilogyconnect.com ♦ 610.805.6303 Trilogy Consulting, LLC

CCaH Providers Forum 1 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

2014 2014 Nas ashvil ille le 2017 2017 New O w Orlea eans CCaH Providers Forum 2

US US O Older er Adult P Pop opulation on G Growth 90,000 83,675 82,835 80,827 77,997 80,000 73,138 65,226 70,000 60,000 56,052 49,244 50,000 39,147 40,000 30,000 18,561 16,953 14,430 20,000 11,793 9,074 7,450 6,701 6,380 5,493 10,000 0 2010 2016 2020 2026 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Age 65+ Age 85+ CCaH Providers Forum 3 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

US Market Share, C CCaH Market Share 0.036% Householders Age 65, $50k+ CCaH Members 99.964% Note: market share differs in individual markets CCaH Providers Forum 4 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

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Older Adults Not Very Conc ncerne ned . . . (Fi Five S Sur urveys, , 1,600 R Respo pond ndents, Age & & Inc ncome Q Qua ualified) Very Concerned 9% 7.8% 8% 7% 5.8% 6% 5% 4.5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Future LTC/Health Care Needs Future financial resources Alzheimer's/Dementia CCaH Providers Forum 6 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

High Hi gher er I Inter eres est in ‘ ‘Stay a at Ho Home’ e’ P Prog ogram (Fi Five s sur urveys, 1 1,600 Respo ponde dents, A Age & & Inc ncome Q Qua ualified) d) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 36.0% 25% 20% 25.6% 15% 10% 11.4% 5% 6.4% 0% Generic 'Stay at Home' Program Generic Retirement Community Very Interested Somewhat Interested CCaH Providers Forum 7 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

Ne Negative e Reaction on to ‘Nu Nursing g Ho Home’ e’ (Fi Five S Sur urveys, , 1,600 R Respo pond ndents, Age & & Income me Qualif ifie ied) Nursing Home Home Care 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% Very/Somewhat Negative Very/Somewhat Positive CCaH Providers Forum 8 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

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Disru rupti tion “A disruption displaces an existing market, industry or technology and produces something new and more efficient and worthwhile. It is at once destructive and creative ” Clayton Christensen CCaH Providers Forum 11 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

Slow w Motion Disruption “The Web site Zillow, which tracks property values, still attaches some value to lots that have been inundated by the Gulf of Mexico, but local residents say these lots are not so easy to sell.” CCaH Providers Forum 12 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

Nearly 9 of ev ever ery 10 F 0 Fortune 5 e 500 c companies es i in 1 n 195 955 a are e go gone, merged o or c contracted CCaH Providers Forum 13 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

“You know who should have invented Airbnb? Marriott Hotels. But they didn’t, because they’re so far up their own (anatomy) in the micro of running hotels that they could never, ever see outside of where they are. So, change instead comes from some eggheads down in Silicon Valley.” “Disruption never comes from within. Every disruption is caused from the outside because everybody on the inside buys into the BS” Robin Black, Canadian Mixed Martial Arts Analyst CCaH Providers Forum 14 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

“Stability, not change, is the state that is most dangerous in highly dynamic competitive environments.” Rita Gunther McGrath, 2013 “Their biggest problem is complacency. . . In fact, they are actually complacent about their attitude toward complacency” “Nokia watcher and industry expert” in The End of Competitive Advantage (2013) 15

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Signs ns of D Disrup uption Market forces – new options replacing out of • date/out of touch offerings. Attractive to broader markets. Waning influence/appeal of NFP (in decision-making) Capital – from segments that are outside of aging, • at least by traditional definitions. Coming at a time when nonprofits struggle to keep up Technology & analytics – enabling people to age • where they choose, and increasingly, how they choose Payment – multidimensional change intended to • maximize shrinking (per capita) resources Significant innovation – largely (but not • exclusively) from serial innovators not traditional providers CCaH Providers Forum 22 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

Mos ost strateg egie ies s are e a ‘spit t shine’ of the sta tatus quo CCaH Providers Forum 23 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

It’s difficult to escape t the ‘pull’ of the status quo CCaH Providers Forum 24 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

Who’s i investing in t the a aging ‘arena’ CCaH Providers Forum 25 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

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How can w we d drive o or direct d disru ruption? CCaH Providers Forum 27 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

Four fundamentals 28

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6½ CCaH Providers Forum 31 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

1. Be driven by vision 32

2. Get out of the bubble CCaH Providers Forum 33

3. Mission first, You do you - last 34

4. To be a disruptor, one needs to be disruptive 35

5. Think like Google 36

6. Break conventions 37

6 ½. Break the mindset 38

Successful CCaH in 2025 Succe uccessful Continuing Car are at Home in n 2025 2025 1. Will have created scale 2. In part through increased market share 3. Will be adept at creating/seizing opportunities CCaH Providers Forum 39 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

How? w? From To • Assumption that existing advantages will • Assumption that existing advantages will come under pressure persist • Conversations that reinforce existing • Conversations that candidly question the status perspectives quo • Relatively few and homogeneous people • Broader constituencies involved in strategy involved in strategy process process with diverse inputs • Precise but slow • Fast and roughly right • Discovery driven • Prediction oriented • Options oriented • NPV oriented • Seeking disconfirmation • Seeking confirmation • Talent directed to identifying and seizing • Talent directed to solving problems opportunities • Extending a trajectory • Promoting continual shifts CCaH Providers Forum 40 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

Ne Negative e Reaction on to ‘Nu Nursing g Ho Home’ e’ (Fi Five S Sur urveys, , 1,600 R Respo pond ndents, Age & & Income me Qualif ifie ied) Nursing Home Home Care 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% Very/Somewhat Negative Very/Somewhat Positive CCaH Providers Forum 41 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

Positi tive i impact t of c care/wellness c coordinati tion SNF and Assisted Living Utilization 35% 30% 25% 20% CCaH 15% US 10% CCRC 5% 0% CCaH Providers Forum 42 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

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Resou ources es 1. The Ambidextrous Organization, O’Reilly and Tushman, Harvard Business Review (2004) 2. Autonomy: The Question to Build the Driverless Car and How It Will Transform Our World, Burns, Harper Collins (2018) 3. Business Model Generation, Osterwalder & Pigneur, John Wiley & Sons (2010) 4. Competing on Analytics, The New Science of Winning, Davenport & Harris, Harvard Business Review Press (2017) 5. The End of Competitive Advantage, Rita Gunther McGrath (2013) 6. Free: The Future of A Radical Price, Andeson, Hyperion Press (2010) 7. The Innovator’s DNA, Dyer, Gregersen and Christensen, Harvard Business Review (December 2009) or Harvard Business Review Press (2011) 8. The Innovator’s Method, Bringing The Lean Startup Into Your Organization, Furr and Dyer, Harvard Business Review Press (2014) 9. The Little Black Book of Innovation, Anthony, Harvard Business Review Press (2017) 10. The New Work of the Nonprofit Board, Holland, Chait and Taylor, Harvard Business Review (September/October 1996) 11. CCRCs and Life Plan Communities: A Heretic’s Perspective, Townsley, University of Maryland Baltimore County (2017) 12. Creating an Innovation Platform, Townsley, Trilogy Consulting, LLC (2019) CCaH Providers Forum 44 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG

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