Discussion of Addendum to The Retrospective Analysis Lin Xu, Ph.D. Sr. Market Development Engineer Market Analysis and Development
Topics • Characterize LMPM methods, the new and the current • Characterize non-radial constraints and the mitigation reference bus • Mitigate based on individual constraint or all non- competitive constraints? • The competitive LMP vs the competitive constraints (CC) run LMP Page 2
The new vs the current: marginal sensitivity vs large change sensitivity System side Local side Import Non-competitive Competitive S L I 100 MW 100 MW Reference bus Bids: I2: 160MW at $300/MWh G0: 180MW at $40/MWh G1: 200MW at $500/MWh L1: 150MW Schedules: CC run: 150MW at $40 CC run: 0MW at $40 CC run: 0MW at $40 AC run: 100MW at $40 AC run: 0MW at $300 AC run: 50MW at $300 Large change sensitivity cannot be observed when Marginal sensitivity there is a more economic way to relieve congestion observed
Reference bus and non-radial constraints r ( = SF_from – SF_to) measures how radial a constraint is: 1 radial, <1 not radial ds (= SF_from / r) measures the distance between the ‘from’ bus and the reference bus: 0 reference bus at ‘from’ bus, 1 reference bus at ‘to’ bus Ref. bus Constraint Type Description r ds location Flow on Imperial Valley SLIC 1417897_IV_CB_7022_OUT_NG Nomogram 0.90 0.71 ‘to’ side bank into SDGE Moccasin generation 36957_MCSN Gen pocket Flowgate 1.00 1.00 ‘to’ side into Newark TP1_230_36961_MOCCASIN_230_BR_1 _1 ds > 0.5 32228_PLACER _115_32238_BELL Drum, Higgins, and etc PGE_115_BR_1 _1 Flowgate flow from Bell to Placer 0.98 0.75 ‘to’ side North Geysers flow on Eagle Rock-Silverado- SLIC 1446790 EGL_SLV_FLTN SOL-1 Nomogram 0.67 0.96 ‘to’ side Fulton Flow on Imperial Valley SLIC 1368530_SDGE_IV_CB_7022 Nomogram bank into SDGE 0.90 0.75 ‘to’ side ‘from’ SDGE_PCT_UF_IMP_BG Flowgate Flow into SDGE Load pocket 0.98 0.00 side ds < 0.5 Path 44 from Songs to ‘from’ SSONGS_BG Flowgate 0.88 0.07 SDGE side The smaller ds is, the Flow from Pardee into ‘from’ SLIC 1434491_Moorpark_Pardee_NG Nomogram 0.65 0.10 better the reference Santa Clara side 22716_SANLUSRY_230_24131_S.ONOFRE_ ‘from’ bus is 230_BR_3 _1 Flowgate Part of path 44 into SDGE 0.81 0.05 side Page 4
Mitigate based on individual constraint or all non- competitive constraints? NC1 and NC2 are non-competitive constraints System side Local side Gen pocket NC1 NC2 S L G $100/MWh $110/MWh Reference bus LMP NC = $0 LMP NC = $100 LMP NC = −$10 SF_L_NC1 = −1 SF_G_NC1 = −1 SF_S_NC1 = 0 Mitigation based on individual All constraints (ISO proposal): will constraint may cause over- not mitigate G mitigation Individual constraint: will mitigate G Page 5
The competitive LMP vs the CC run LMP The competitive LMP is LMP CMP = LMP EC +LMP LC +LMP CC , and will replace the CC run LMP as the mitigation protection floor System side Local side 100 MW Reference bus S L Non-competitive Bids: G0: 120MW at $40/MWh G1: 100MW at $500/MWh L1: 150MW Schedules: G0 CC run: 120MW at $500 G1 CC run: 30MW at $500 G0 AC run: 100MW at $40 G1 AC run: 50MW at $500 CC run price may not be competitive If the CC run is solved with fixed unit commitments (from the AC run), the competitive LMP is expected to be lower than the CC run LMP for units with positive LMP non-competitive component. Page 6
The competitive LMP vs the CC run LMP 85% 79% 21% Day-ahead market results from January 2011 to February 2011 Page 7
Summary • The new LMPM method is more sensitive and targeted than the current LMPM method • A good mitigation reference bus should have small ds • Mitigation based on individual constraints may cause over-mitigation • The CC run LMP may not be as competitive as the ISO proposed competitive LMP Page 8
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