Land Land-Us Use e Sce Scenarios narios Impact Impact on on Eco Economic nomic Ev Evalua aluation tion of of Pr Projects ojects If you’re going to skate on thin ice, you may as well dance. Cr Craig aig Cas Casper per Der Derek ek Cutler Cutler Nao Naomi mi Stein Stein Cha Chandler ndler Dun Duncan can October 2016
C ONTEXT #1
P OPULATION C OMPARISON –
Planworks Process 13 Goals in a Performance Based Plan Economic Goal: Improve economic vitality and freight movement by improving the transportation system. https://fhwaapps.fhwa.dot.gov/planworks
F ACILITATED C OLLABORATION Technical Advisory Committee Community Advisory Committee Other Groups Invited City of Colorado Springs City of Colorado Springs Convention & Visitors Bureau Mountain Metro Transit City of Fountain Housing & Building Association of CS City of Fountain City of Manitou Springs Downtown Partnership of CS City of Manitou Springs City of Woodland Park City of CS Economic Development Dept City of Woodland Park Regional Business Alliance Colorado Springs Airport Colorado DOT HQ Council of Neighborhood Organizations Manitou Springs EDC / BID Colorado DOT Region 2 El Paso County City of Fountain Economic Develop Dept El Paso County League of Women Voters Greater Woodland Park Chamber Bicycle Colorado Teller County City of Cripple Creek Teller County Town of Green Mountain Falls CS Black Chamber Town of Green Mountain Falls Town of Monument Hispanic Chamber of CS Town of Monument Town of Palmer Lake Southern Colorado Women’s Chamber Town of Palmer Lake 6 Citizens-At-Large Colorado Springs Utilities Colorado Air Quality Control Pikes Peak Assoc. Of Realtors Colorado Springs Utilities Tri-Lakes Chamber FHWA Pikes Peak Community College FTA Army Corps of Engineers Ft Carson US EPA Peterson Air Force Base US Fish and Wildlife Service Mountain Metro Transit Colorado Dept of Wildlife US Air Force Academy Colorado Dept of Health El Paso County Parks Colorado Springs Parks Council of Neighbors and Organizations Involve every group that impacts or is impacted by transportation investment decisions.
E CONOMIC R ELATED G ROUPS Regional Business Alliance Convention & Visitors Bureau Housing & Building Association of CS Downtown Partnership of CS City of CS Economic Development Dept Colorado Springs Airport Manitou Springs EDC / BID City of Fountain Economic Develop Dept Greater Woodland Park Chamber CS Black Chamber Hispanic Chamber of CS Southern Colorado Women’s Chamber Tri-Lakes Chamber
F ACILITATED C OLLABORATION
S CENARIO D EVELOPMENT IN C OMMUNITYVIZ Create land use scenarios Use indicators to measure impacts (economic, social, environmental) Analyze using models Adopt official plan Score projects based on future impacts Experiment interactively and see changes
T OOLS U SED ArcGIS Compatible Stand-Alone CommunityViz HERS-ST Vista TREDIS N-Spect MOVES TELUM TNM VISUM
S CENARIO D EVELOPMENT W ORKSHOPS 2010 2040 Scenario planning: Infill/ Cluster • Educational, “what - if” analysis • Intentionally extreme Baseline Current Trend • Not necessarily desired outcomes • Indicators help Accelerated quantify effects Trend
D IFFERENT F UTURE L AND -U SES The only thing we know for sure about our land-use forecasts is that they are wrong.
P LAN A SSUMPTIONS
P LAN A SSUMPTIONS
P LAN A SSUMPTIONS
2040 S CENARIOS –”A DVISORS ” WITH A VESTED INTEREST
2040 S CENARIOS –”A DVISORS ” WITH A VESTED INTEREST
2040 S CENARIOS –”A DVISORS ” WITH A VESTED INTEREST
2040 S CENARIOS –”A DVISORS ” WITH A VESTED INTEREST
20 2012 12 Ex Existing isting
20 2040 40 For orec ecast ast
2040 S CENARIOS – M ORE INFORMED A DVISORS WITH A VESTED INTEREST
2040 S CENARIOS – M ORE INFORMED A DVISORS WITH A VESTED INTEREST
C ONSERVATION 2035 – R ESIDENTIAL D ENSITY
E CONOMIC A NALYSIS = PRESENT VALUE OF DIRECT / INDIRECT
E CONOMIC A NALYSIS
E CONOMIC A NALYSIS • Monetized present value from project benefits • Scoring from 0 to 9 • Due to project magnitude distortion, normalized using 3 rd best project. Benefits over Maintenance Only Accelerated Trend Scenario Vehicle Operating Cost Savings +136.6 Million Dollars Time & Reliability Cost Savings +91.8 Million Dollars Value of Personal Time Savings +1,215.8 Million Dollars Shipper/Logistics Cost Savings +9.0 Million Dollars Total Economic Benefits +1,459.8 Million Dollars
K EY F INDINGS Total Value of Projects Analyzed 5,180,000,000 4,680,000,000 4,180,000,000 3,680,000,000 3,180,000,000 2,680,000,000 2,180,000,000 1,680,000,000 INFILL ADOPTED ACCELERATED
K EY F INDINGS Socioeconomic and land use scenarios help identify: • Projects whose utility changes under different growth patterns • Projects with benefits that remain stable under all scenarios. This allowed the MPO to consider the risk inherent in socio-economic assumptions in projecting project benefits, as well as considering the degree to which anticipated socio-economic future conditions may affect project prioritization and selection. With a total of $1.8 Billion in project construction costs the forecast direct economic benefit was:
K EY F INDINGS – A CCELERATED T REND ID Project Benefit Score I-25 HOV Lanes 72 $ 1,199,484,943 9.000 Briargate Pkwy/ Stapleton Rd Connection 27 $ 352,721,855 8.000 Transit-current operations 172 $ 280,574,203 7.000 Powers Blvd. Intersection Improvements from North Carefree 114 to Constitution $ 263,201,499 6.567 Academy over Sand Creek Bridge Rehabilitation 14 $ 108,014,273 3.465 Cimarron over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation 34 $ 105,286,255 3.377 Academy over Platte Ave Deck Replacement 13 $ 88,880,223 2.851 Union Blvd over Cottonwood Creek Bridge Replacement 198 $ 86,702,486 2.781 Dublin Road Widening:Peterson Road to Marksheffel Road 40 $ 74,887,076 2.402 Garrett Road 62 $ 72,196,536 2.316 8th St. over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation 5 $ 70,512,226 2.262 Fillmore Street over Monument Creek Bridge Rehabilitation 50 $ 60,577,009 1.943 Fillmore Street over UPRR Bridge Rehabilitation 51 $ 60,400,373 1.937 Fontanero over Camp Creek Bridge Replacement 53 $ 56,015,998 1.797 Transit BRT Citadel to Downtown 160 $ 53,995,186 1.732 Garden of the Gods over S Douglas Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 53,631,295 61 1.720 Powers Blvd: SH 83 to I-25 (at Northgate Rd) 115 $ 51,725,375 1.659 Transit IT Improvements 195 $ 47,783,124 1.533
K EY F INDINGS – E XISTING T REND A DOPTED S CENARIO ID Project Benefit Score I-25 HOV Lanes 72 $ 1,235,991,867 9.000 Powers Blvd. Intersection Improvements from North Carefree 114 $ 792,548,999 8.000 to Constitution Transit-current operations 172 $ 308,997,967 7.000 Briargate Pkwy/ Stapleton Rd Connection 27 $ 163,140,134 4.752 Academy over Sand Creek Bridge Rehabilitation 14 $ 108,014,273 3.146 Cimarron over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation 34 $ 105,286,255 3.067 Academy over Platte Ave Deck Replacement 13 $ 88,880,223 2.589 Union Blvd over Cottonwood Creek Bridge Replacement 198 $ 86,702,486 2.525 Powers Blvd: SH 83 to I-25 (at Northgate Rd) 115 $ 74,172,144 2.160 8th St. over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation 5 $ 70,512,226 2.054 Fillmore Street over Monument Creek Bridge Rehabilitation 50 $ 60,577,009 1.764 Fillmore Street over UPRR Bridge Rehabilitation 51 $ 60,400,373 1.759 Transit BRT Citadel to Downtown 160 $ 60,388,829 1.759 Transit-Nevada Streetcar 161 $ 60,388,829 1.759 Fontanero over Camp Creek Bridge Replacement 53 $ 56,015,998 1.632 Garden of the Gods over S Douglas Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 53,631,295 61 1.562 Transit-Colorado Avenue BRT 159 $ 53,335,008 1.553 US 24 East Widening 205 $ 43,497,430 1.267
Recommend
More recommend
