Decision on the ISO 2016-2017 Transmission Plan Neil Millar Executive Director, Infrastructure Development Board of Governors Meeting General Session March 15-16, 2017 ISO Confidential
Approving the plan means approving determinations and recommendations contained in the plan. • Two transmission projects: – Both are new reliability projects each of which is less than $50 million – no policy driven projects – no economically driven projects • Canceling 13 - primarily local – previously approved projects in PG&E’s service area • Identifying 16 transmission projects requiring further evaluation in the 2017-2018 planning cycle No regional transmission solutions found to be needed are eligible for competitive solicitation Page 2 ISO Confidential
The 2016-2017 Transmission Planning Process Four Consultation Windows April 2016 March 2017 October 2017 ISO Board Approval of Transmission Plan Coordination of Conceptual Statewide Plan Phase 3 • Request for bids, receive Phase 1 proposals, evaluate, and award to successful Development of ISO unified applicant to build identified planning assumptions and Phase 2 reliability, policy and study plan Technical Studies and Board Approval economic transmission projects. • State and Federal policy • Reliability analysis requirements and directives • Renewable delivery (policy) analysis • Demand forecasts, energy • Economic analysis efficiency, demand response • Consider Transmission Alternatives, e.g. preferred resources and energy storage. • Renewable and conventional generation • Publish comprehensive transmission plan additions and retirements • Input from stakeholders Continued regional and sub-regional coordination Slide 3 ISO Confidential
Transmission approvals over the last 6 years – over 30 projects a year until 2014-2015: $2,500 Delaney-Colorado River and Harry Allen-Eldorado $2,000 Capital Cost in $ millions $1,500 Economic $1,000 Policy Reliability $500 $0 Transmission Plan Page 4 ISO Confidential
The ISO’s reliability analysis led to the following: • Two reliability projects are recommended in SCE’s service territory: – Lugo-Victorville 500 kV Upgrade - coordinated with LADWP ($18 million – SCE portion) – Big Creek Rating Increase Project ($6 million) • In the PG&E service territory: – 13 previously approved projects are recommended to be cancelled – 15 have been identified as needing further review and scoping - 5 will proceed with concluding siting activities • One project in the SDG&E area needs further review Page 5 ISO Confidential
13 projects are no longer required based on reliability and local capacity requirements and deliverability assessments: • Pease-Marysville #2 60 kV Line • Almaden 60 kV Shunt Capacitor • Monta Vista – Los Gatos – Evergreen 60 kV Project • Lockheed No. 1 115 kV Tap Reconductor • Mountain View/Whisman-Monta Vista 115 kV Reconductoring • Stone 115 kV Back-tie Reconductor • Kearney - Kerman 70 kV Line Reconductor • Cressey - North Merced 115 kV Line Addition • Taft-Maricopa 70 kV Line Reconductor • Natividad Substation Interconnection • Soledad 115/60 kV Transformer Capacity • Tesla-Newark 230 kV Path Upgrade • Vaca Dixon-Lakeville 230 kV Reconductoring Slide 6 ISO Confidential
Projects on hold and completing engineering activities • Management has identified that further review of the need and scope for the following PG&E-area projects is required in the 2017-2018 planning cycle. – Midway-Andrew 230 kV Project – Spring Substation – Wheeler Ridge Junction Substation – Lockeford-Lodi Area 230 kV Development – Vaca-Davis Voltage Conversion Project – • Management is recommending that the project sponsors do not proceed with filings for permitting and certificates of public convenience and necessity until the ISO completes the reviews. • Completing the design and siting permitting activities (but not filing for permits) will assist in the reviews. Slide 7 ISO Confidential
Projects on hold with all development suspended • For the following PG&E area projects, all development activities are recommended to be put on hold until a review is complete. – Gates-Gregg 230 kV Line – Watsonville Voltage Conversion – Atlantic-Placer 115 kV Line – Northern Fresno 115 kV Area Reinforcement – South of San Mateo Capacity Increase – Evergreen-Mabury Conversion to 115 kV – New Bridgeville Garberville No. 2 115 kV Line – Cottonwood-Red Bluff No. 2 60 kV Line Project and Red Bluff Area 230 kV Substation Project – Kern PP 115 kV Area Reinforcement – Wheeler Ridge-Weedpatch 70 kV Line Reconductor • In the SDG&E area, the Mission-Penasquitos project requires further review. Slide 8 ISO Confidential
Oakland Area – reviewing potential alternatives for existing fossil-fueled Oakland Power Plant • The ISO is working with Dynegy to assess the expected life of the plant, to aid in developing alternatives to address the reliability needs currently met by the plant. • • The alternatives that the ISO considered in the 2015-2016 transmission planning process remain valid to address the reliability needs. • The leading alternative at this time is a combination of transmission upgrades and preferred resources - a portfolio of demand response, energy efficiency, distributed generation and storage. • • The ISO will continue to work with the Dynegy and PG&E and reassess the situation in the 2017-2018 transmission planning process. Slide 9 ISO Confidential
The ISO’s policy-driven analysis focused on the 33% Renewables Portfolio Standard: For assessing policy-driven transmission, the CPUC and CEC provided direction on June 13, 2016 to re-use the same 33% RPS portfolios as in 2015-2016 cycle and avoid triggering new transmission for a 50% RPS at this time. For the policy driven analysis with 33% RPS portfolios, the ISO studied only on the Imperial, Baja and Arizona areas due to changes in transmission plans in the Imperial Irrigation District from the 2015-2016 Transmission Plan. No policy- driven requirements were identified. Note that the portfolios used in the ISO’s informational 50% RPS special studies were provided by CPUC staff through a collaborative effort, but not as the basis for policy-driven transmission Page 10 ISO Confidential
Regional high voltage transmission access charge projection trended from January 1, 2017 values: $16 $15 $14.11 $14 $13.91 $13 Regional $12 High Voltage TAC $11 2017 Projection with $/MWh recommended approvals $10 January 1 2017 HV TAC very close to January 1 2016 level $9 due to significantly larger 2016 Projection with negative TRBAA and other recommended $8 revenue requirement approvals offsetting adjustments. $7 $6 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 * Existing returns are maintained for existing PTO rate base, and 11% return on equity is assumed for new transmission capital. Slide 11 ISO Confidential
Incremental impact of post-2016 capital expenditures related to all ISO-approved transmission projects $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 Shift primarily due to increased forecast cost $2.50 of previously approved Incremental projects and, to a lesser Regional $2.00 degree, new capital High Voltage projects and other corrections $1.50 TAC $/MWh $1.00 Shift due to deferral of previously approved projects $0.50 $0.00 -$0.50 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2015-16 Plan - relative to 2016 2016-17 Plan - ISO Approved Expenditures * Existing returns are maintained for existing PTO rate base, and 11% return on equity is assumed for new transmission capital. Slide 12 ISO Confidential
Six special studies on emerging issues were undertaken in this cycle: Continuation of frequency response efforts through improved generator modeling Risks of early economic retirement of gas fleet 50% renewable generation (in-state analysis, out of state analysis and Interregional Transmission Project evaluation) Large scale storage benefits Gas/electric reliability coordination Slow response resources in local capacity areas Page 13 ISO Confidential
Stakeholder feedback provided a wide range of views: • Concerns about specific projects, and the ISO’s basis for moving forward – Projects driven by high voltage concerns – Previously approved projects – Projects not recommended for approval • Deliverability of CPUC-provided 33% renewable generation portfolios for policy-driven transmission • Support for continuation of special studies Page 14 ISO Confidential
Management recommends the Board approve the 2016-2017 ISO Transmission Plan. • Continues to pursue low emissions strategies in addressing reliability needs of the ISO controlled grid • Enables the state’s 33% RPS goals and sets a foundation for higher renewable energy goals • Provides for prudent and economic development of the transmission system Slide 15 ISO Confidential
Recommend
More recommend
