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Decision Making in American Football : Evidence from 7 Years of NFL - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Decision Making in American Football : Evidence from 7 Years of NFL Data Konstantinos Pelechrinis Presented by Ke Zhang ECML/PKDD Machine Learning & Data Mining for Sports Analytics Riva del Garda, Italy 2016 COACHING DECISIONS ARE

  1. Decision Making in American Football : Evidence from 7 Years of NFL Data Konstantinos Pelechrinis Presented by Ke Zhang ECML/PKDD Machine Learning & Data Mining for Sports Analytics Riva del Garda, Italy 2016

  2. COACHING DECISIONS

  3. ARE COACHING DECISIONS RATIONAL?

  4. WHAT IS A RATIONAL DECISION? A decision that maximizes the probability of winning

  5. WHAT IS A RATIONAL DECISION? A decision that maximizes the probability of winning In the vast majority of the cases this is equivalent to maximizing the points scored

  6. WHAT IS A RATIONAL DECISION? A decision that maximizes the probability of winning In the vast majority of the cases this is equivalent to maximizing the points scored The closer to the end of the game the less good the above approximation

  7. TWO CASE STUDIES PAT decision 4th down decision

  8. DATA NFL API • 7 years play-by-play data • 1,792 regular season games • 42,371 drives • 316,630 snaps • 9,021 touchdowns

  9. PAT DECISION OR

  10. PAT DECISIONS

  11. PAT DECISIONS E[p]= 2*

  12. PAT DECISIONS - 1* E[p]= 2*

  13. PAT DECISIONS - 1* E[p]= 2* 6 10 5 22 24 0.50 14 14 10 13 9 Expected Point Gain 0.25 15 12 14 18 12 12 12 0.00 15 11 16 16 21 14 24 17 -0.25 22 14 14 9 13 21 11 -0.50 ARI ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

  14. PAT DECISIONS - 1* E[p]= 2* 6 10 5 22 24 0.50 14 14 10 13 9 Expected Point Gain 0.25 15 12 14 18 12 12 12 0.00 15 11 16 16 21 14 24 17 -0.25 22 14 14 9 13 21 11 -0.50 ARI ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

  15. 4TH DOWN DECISION

  16. 4TH DOWN DECISIONS

  17. 4TH DOWN DECISIONS 1.2 4th down converstion success rate 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 0 10 20 30 Yards to go

  18. 4TH DOWN DECISIONS 1.2 4th down converstion success rate 0.8 0.8 Probability of FG Success 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0 10 20 30 20 30 40 50 60 70 Distance (yards) Yards to go

  19. 4TH DOWN DECISIONS 1.2 4th down converstion success rate 0.8 0.8 Probability of FG Success 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 Touchback line 1.00 -0.4 0 10 20 30 20 30 40 50 60 70 Distance (yards) Yards to go Probability of Success 0.75 type TD 0.50 FG Fail 0.25 0.00 0 25 50 75 100 Distance to Goal Line at the Beginning of the Drive

  20. 4TH DOWN DECISIONS

  21. 4TH DOWN DECISIONS Touchback 4 Expected Points Gained 2 0 -2 0 25 50 75 100 Distance to the Goal Line when 4th down

  22. CONCLUSIONS & LIMITATIONS • Coaching decisions seem to follow the status quo rather than being rational • Coaches of course might not want to maximize the points score but rather minimize the variance for the points scored • Current analysis is only focused on offensive unit decisions • Objective: maximize the point differential • The estimates of the fourth down conversion rate can be biased as alluded to above

  23. Every snap is a data point! http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-high-school-football-coach- who-never-punts/ Questions can be directed to kpele@pitt.edu @kpelechrinis 13

  24. 4TH DOWN DECISIONS

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