Decarbonising UK energy: A view of energy security Professor John Loughhead OBE FREng FTSE Chief Scientific Adviser Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day Transport fuels = Aviation Fuels + DERV (Diesel) + Motor Spirit (Petrol) Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day Electricity from nuclear generation Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day Electricity from weather dependent renewable sources (solar+wind+non_PS_hydro) Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day Electricity from coal generation Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day Total natural gas including exports Exports of natural gas Decarbonising UK energy
Natural gas flow chart 2016 Twh Decarbonising UK energy
Peak electricity demand scenarios – National Grid Source: National Grid, Future Energy Scenarios, July 2016 (http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ )
Offshore Wind • Offshore wind is already a major part of our energy supply, and key to our future • UK market is the largest in the world - and will remain so to 2020 and beyond • We have a strong framework to drive investment in offshore wind – delivered through Electricity Market Reform • We are already securing the economic benefits – and the potential is huge • The UK is at the forefront of delivering cost reductions in offshore wind – reflected in reduced “strike prices” over the decade • Some rationalisation of the “pipeline” of projects is to be expected – a sign of the sector maturing
Figure 1 BEIS Energy and Emissions Projections (EEP) 2016 Reference Case Gas Demand and Other Projections Decarbonising UK energy
Table 1 UK Gas Demand Projections Demand (bcm) Source Coverage/Scenario Key Assumptions 2020 2030 2035 Cost optimal pathway to meet the UK’s 2050 Two Degrees 77 62 55 carbon emissions reduction target. Low economic growth and affordability. With National Grid Future Slow Progression 74 67 59 limited money, the focus is on cost efficient Energy Scenarios longer-term environmental policies. (2017) Business as usual prevails and the focus is on Steady State 77 88 81 ensuring security of supply at a low cost for consumers. The least green scenario. High affordability, with no new targets Consumer Power 80 89 81 introduced, focus on consumer’s desires. Based on central assumptions of growth and fossil fuel prices. Contains all agreed policies Reference Scenario 74 68 65 where decisions on policy design are sufficiently advanced to allow robust estimates of impact. Assumptions similar to reference scenario but Low Prices 87 101 110 using low fossil fuel price assumptions BEIS EEP (2016) [1] Assumptions similar to reference scenario but High Prices 69 66 62 using high fossil fuel price assumptions Assumptions similar to reference scenario but Low Growth 74 67 64 using low economic growth assumptions Assumptions similar to reference scenario but High Growth 74 68 65 using high economic growth assumptions Based on central estimates of price and Existing Policies 75 77 78 economic growth, but not planned policies. Based on central price and growth assumptions, but excludes the impact of Climate Change Baseline Policies 87 101 110 policies brought in since the 2007 Low Carbon Transition Plan. Wood Mackenzie Central 72 63 59 (H1 2017) IHS (2017) Central 72 69 69 Decarbonising UK energy
Figure 2 – UK gas demand range and production projections Decarbonising UK energy
Table 1 UK Gas Demand Projections Decarbonising UK energy
Final Energy Consumption (including international aviation) 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 Electricity Natural gas 100,000 Petroleum products Renewables 80,000 Solid / manufactured fuels3 Total energy consumption4 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Years from 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Decarbonising UK energy
Changes over time in gas production and demand Decarbonising UK energy
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