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Deal Activity - - 2006 2006 7,000 $80,000 Deal Activity $70,000 - PDF document

2007 Multifamily Market: Review and Assessment Aubrey L. Layne, Jr. President Great Atlantic Management GREAT ATLANTIC Deal Activity and Headlines Economic and Operating Environment Outlook HR Apartment Deal Volume and Price


  1. 2007 Multifamily Market: Review and Assessment Aubrey L. Layne, Jr. President Great Atlantic Management GREAT ATLANTIC • Deal Activity and Headlines • Economic and Operating Environment • Outlook HR Apartment Deal Volume and Price Deal Activity - - 2006 2006 7,000 $80,000 Deal Activity $70,000 6,000 $60,000 5,000 volume in units $50,000 price in $ 4,000 $40,000 3,000 $30,000 • Unit Volume Down • Unit Volume Down 2,000 $20,000 1,000 $10,000 • Core Pricing Flat • Core Pricing Flat 0 $0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Sources: Great Atlantic, volume price Real Data 1

  2. Biggest Deal in 2006 • Alta Cove Now Empirian Chesapeake • $63 Million and $168,000 Per Unit Bonaventure Group Enters HR • 702 Units in 2006 • 540 Units in 2005 Economic and Operating Environment 2

  3. Apartment Cap Rates, Interest Rates and Spreads Renter's Monthly Cash Flow Advantage 9% 450 $1,800 $800 8% 400 $1,600 $700 $1,400 7% 350 cap rates $600 Hom e P&I and Rent Renter's Advantage $1,200 6% 300 $500 spread (bps) $1,000 $400 5% 250 $800 interest rates $300 4% 200 $600 $200 3% 150 $400 spread $100 $200 2% 100 Sources: Capital Analytics, Federal Reserve $0 $0 1% 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sources: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ODU, Real Data home P&I avg rent renter savings 10-Year Treasury avg cap rate spread (bps) Home Owner Vacancy In Dwellings With 2 or More Units 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Source: US Census Dept. 2% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HR Apartments Under Construction and Starts Employment 3000 2500 Apartm ent Units 2000 1500 1000 500 • Ford Plant Closing 0 • BRAC – 2008, Mostly on Peninsula 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 • 2007 Unemployment 3.7% Source: Real Data Under Construction Starts 3

  4. HR Rent Growth and Core Inflation HR Vacancy Rates and Rent Growth 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% vacancy 4.0% 4.0% rent growth 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Sources: US Dept. of Labor, Real Data 0.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: Real Data 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 HR Rent Growth Core Inflation Outlook - 2007 • Buyers : Competitive Market • Sellers : Relatively High Prices • Owners : Positive Operating Environment • Renters : More Choice and Modestly Higher Rents 4

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