Dane County Climate Adaptation Planning David S. Liebl UW-Cooperative Extension April 18, 2013 WICCI Climate Analysis Chris Kucharik - UW Agronomy Dan Vimont, Steve Vavrus, Michael Notaro, David Lorenz - UW Center for Climatic Research
Dane County Climate Planning The Team Resource and infrastructure managers, public health and safety The Process 1) Understand climate impacts (today) 2) Assess vulnerability 3) Identify adaptation opportunities 4) Plan for adaptation: – Range of strategies – Implementation plan – Public review and input
What about climate concerns us? … and weather can take a human toll! Humans experience climate as weather…
High Water Storms of June 1-15, 2008 DNR 38 River gauges broke records 810 Square miles of land flooded 161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage 2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated $34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM
Your most notable extreme weather event - You were in it - You responded - You will always remember - You worry about June 8, 1953 Cleveland, Ohio F-4 Tornado Path 118 miles Width 100 yards Injuries 379 Dead 17
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts - Understanding ways we can adapt to the consequences of climate change. www.wicci.wisc.edu Scientific consensus on climate change “There is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities.” — US National Research Council, 2010
Historic Temperature Change Wisconsin has warmed by 1°-1.5°F since 1950
Daytime High Temperature Change Winter Spring Nighttime Low Temperature Change Winter Spring
Temperature Extremes Very hot days Sub-zero nights little change much less frequent
Dates of Spring and Fall Freeze Wisconsin growing season lengthened by 1-4 weeks since 1950
Annual Average Precipitation Change Wisconsin rainfall has changed ↑ 7” - ↓4” since 1950
WICCI Climate Assessments and Projections UW-Center for Climatic Research Statistical downscaling of climate projections across the East and Central Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) Objective: To statistically downscale global climate model simulations to scales relevant for decision makers (around 10 km resolution) Downscaling Region
Summary of Wisconsin’s projected climate • More frequent hot days • Significant increase in heat waves • Warmer nighttime and winter temperatures • Increased frequency and intensity of precipitation • Significant increase in rain during winte r Impact on short term variability (weather) Not projected
Selecting Climate Data Co 2 Emission Scenarios 10 ⁰ F 8 ⁰ F 6 ⁰ F Using: A1B as mid-range (not more likely) Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
How far do we need to look ahead? Mid 21 st +6 ⁰ F Planning Horizons Budget 1-2 years Staffing 3-5 years Buildings 25-50 years Roads, Sewers, etc. >50 years Late 21 st +8 ⁰ F Comparing: Late 20 th to mid-21 st Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Mid-21 st Temperature (A1B) T annual T max +6 ⁰ F +6 ⁰ F +20 Days +500 >90 ⁰ F CDD Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Vulnerability to Heat Since 1982, heat waves have caused more deaths (216) than all other natural disasters combined - NWS
Likelihood of the Warmest Day of the Year Madison, WI 1976, 2012 record Projected (A1B)
Increase in Heat Wave Number and Duration 1981-2000 vs. 2046-2065 Six 5-day events One 9-day event More frequent and longer
Mid-21 st Precipitation (A1B) Seasonal shift Latest freeze Spring 2 weeks +1” earlier Suggests: More spring snow storms More icing More groundwater recharge Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Groundwater flooding from increased recharge The community has built a diversion channel to carry water from future flooding. This Spring Green subdivision has been razed, with FEMA reimbursement. Madeline Gotkowitz
Mid-21 st Precipitation (A1B) Seasonal shift Spring Summer +1” +6 ⁰ F Suggests: More spring, less summer rainfall Increased drought Increased irrigation demand Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Mid-21 st Precipitation (A1B) 2” rainfall Annual +4/10yr +2” Climatologist's “extreme rainfall” = 2” in 24 hours (frequency = 1.3/ year) Source: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/
Year 80 Projected Return Period 70 1971-2000 vs. 2041-2070 60 Rainfall Frequency 50 Historical 40 NARCCAP 30 20 10 0 Storm Intensity 1.0" 2.5" 3.0" 3.5" 4.0" 5.0" -Vavrus and Behnke Inch 7 Storm Intensity 6 1971-2000 vs. 2041-2070 5 Storm Intensity 4 Historical 3 NARCCAP 2 1 Both are projected to increase 0 1 year 5 years 10 years 25 years 50 years 100 years Return Period -Vavrus and Behnke
Record 24-hour Rainfalls World-wide: 72 ″ in 24 hours La Reunion, Indian Ocean (1966) Wisconsin : 11.75 ″ in 24 hours Stoddard, Vernon County (August 18, 2007) 4.05” La Crosse (same storm) Record Rainfall (MSN) 4.5″ 1996 4.1″ 2008 3.9″ 1995 3.7″ 1993 3.6″ 2004, 2009 3.5″ 2010 NOAA 100- year(1%) rainfall = 7″
Adapting to Extreme Rainfall Resiliency Today’s extreme events are consistent with projected precipitation trends If a system is prepared for current variability, it’s likely to be prepared for future trends We can learn from the experience of communities around us 11.75” Liebl and Schuster
Vulnerability assessment “Build upon the experiences of communities that have experienced recent extreme rainfalls to guide a state-wide evaluation of vulnerabilities…..” - WICCI Stormwater Working Group Rainfall: • Floodplains and surface flooding • At-risk road-crossings • Stormwater BMPs • Hazardous materials storage • Emergency response capacity • Wells and septic systems • Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration
Extreme Storm Transposition Study “What would happen if the 2008 rainfall was centered over the Yahara Lakes?” Reedsburg, WI Lake Mendota Sewage Treatment Plant Rainfall Rise Stage* Outflow 2008 10.7″ 2.3 ′ 852 ′ 632 cfs storm Transposed 13.6″ 2.9 ′ 853 ′ 752 cfs storm 100yr 852 ′ flood *from 850.1 - Doug Brugger -NOAA Milwaukee Regional Climate Center Impact downstream under analysis NOAA CSI-SARP NA12OAR4310098
Challenges of Climate Adaptation Long planning horizon - Climate change occurs over decades, what planning and management strategies are on the same time scale? Predictive uncertainty - Are management strategies flexible enough to respond to the range of climate impacts and uncertainty ? Sustainable alternatives – More of the same may not be the best long term solution? Win-Win strategies both protect society and reduce carbon
Climate Ready Communities Climate Awareness Vulnerability Assessment : Extreme heat Drought Heavy rainfall Warm winters Windstorms Adaptation Capacity: Planning Resiliency Communities should be prepared for today’s rare weather extremes, they will become more common - WICCI
Dane County Next Steps Identifying climate vulnerabilities How will projected changes in climate affect your work? e.g. More de-icing - MSN Prolonged heat waves – County Health High water – Lakes and Watershed Next steps: 1) Identify climate vulnerabilities in the systems you manage 2) Assess the feasibility of adaptation strategies 3) Look for commonalities 4) Prioritize 5) Draft a plan of public review and input 6) Implement adaptation strategies
Vulnerability Worksheet MSN Changing Climate Conditions+A1:O17 Area of Responsibility or Activity Anticipated Impact Scope of Impact Time Frame of Change Consequence of Impact Vulnerability of Systems Use the following (WICCI A1B) scenarios Name of department or other What exactly do you think How widely will it Immediate or deferred Why is the impact a How will you recognize for mid-21st century will happen affect your problem failure of the system operations Temperature Annual Average Temperature + 6⁰F Average Maximum Temperature + 6⁰F Annual Peak Temperature 110-112⁰F Twenty more Days over 90⁰F Five hundred more cooling degree days More frequent-longer heat waves Precipitation Annual Precipitation +2" Rainfall frequency and intensity increasing Extreme rainfall event (6" in 24hrs) Increased rainfall in winter and spring Dane County Regional Airport Increasing amount of Planes, runways, Immediate Safety of passengers; Inability of existing de-icing winter rainfall sidewalks, parking ability to operate systems to cope with Increased groundwater recharge
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