DANDE NONG OPPORT UNIT Y Brian Haratsis Chairman, MacroPlan US - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DANDE NONG OPPORT UNIT Y Brian Haratsis Chairman, MacroPlan

US ABOUT

ABOUT US 30 years experience; • HQ in Sydney; • Average 1000+ projects per year; • National Footprint; • Offices in Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Brisbane and the • Gold Coast; 80+ economists, planners and advisors; and • Strategic approach. • Br isbane Pe r th Sydne y Me lbour ne

Y UNIT OPPORT HE T

T HE OPPORT UNIT Y: SOME OBSE RVAT IONS F ROM T HE OUT SE T Infrastructure rich – transport. • Did you know… Position and surrounding activity. There are over 100 solicitors in the • • Price differential to leverage. area; • Unmet submarkets emerging. Most in low quality buildings (e.g. 41 • • Amenity (retail). Robinson Street, etc.). • Scale has critical mass. •

ACE & PL WAL NE OR URBAN RE S ST E T HE MAKING: T DNA F

WORK RAME CONOMIC F E

E CONOMIC F RAME WORK 1. High Population Growth- (1.6% or 400,000 + p.a.) 2. Increasing Household Formation – ( ↑ 15 – 64 years) 3. Retirement Explosion- ( ↑ X 250% 2007/2011) 4. Employment Churn (20%), then Growth (1-2% p.a.) 5. GDP at Trend Rate- (3% - 3.5% p.a.) 6. Gearshift from Resources → Construction → Services 7. Fast Growth in Tourism, Health, Education 8. Post GFC Economy- ↑ Wealth ↓ Savings ↑ Retail ↑ Asset Investment

S IE CIT AL IAN CAPIT RAL AUST

POPUL AT ION: E AST E RN SE ABORARD ME GAL OPOL IS Brisbane Pop 2014: 2,293,400  Pop 2061: 4,788,000  Sydney Pop 2014: 4,823,700 Melbourne  Pop 2061: 8,493,700 Pop 2014: 4,422,700   Canberra Pop 2061: 8,580,600  Pop 2014: 390,080  Pop 2061: 740,900  Eastern Seaboard Major Cities Total Pop 2014: 11.9 million  Pop 2031: 17.2 million  Pop 2061: 22.6 million 

POPUL AT ION & E MPL OYME NT GROWT H By Greater Metropolitan Region (2001-2011) • City Population Population Gr owth (% ) Jobs Jobs Gr owth (% ) Melbourne 601,512 17.6% 173,081 20.3% Sydney 431,713 10.8% 106,209 10.7% Brisbane 391,911 23.2% 116,747 22.1% Perth 329,161 24.0% 112,445 33.2%

INF RAST RUCT URE : PROPE RT Y ‘GAME CHANGE RS’ Intensification of the Eastern seaboard. • Sydney’s 2nd airport. • Melbourne’s 3rd Airport. • Inland Rail. • And… • Brisbane Airport second runway. • Melbourne Airport third runway. • Major freight and logistics projects in Melbourne, Sydney & Brisbane. •

XT E NONG CONT DANDE

ABOUT DANDE NONG 30kms from the CBD. • Largest corridor – SE historically fast growth (Casey, Cardinia) – primarily • residential. Dandenong transition period: • 3rd economic phase. • agriculture hub -> suburban car-based - > regional city. • Surrounded by dominant retail centres. • Chadstone; • Fountain Gate; • Frankston; and • Knox City. • Lonsdale Street upgrades & new Council Office. • Initial private sector high density residential project. •

XT E OGRAPHIC CONT 32 kms GE

NAT URAL CAT CHME NT South E ast Airport Population 1.03 million at 2016 Add 310,000 dwe llings ove r 2016- 51

E CONOMIC DIVE RSIT Y Long established Employment Cluster. • Manufacturing; • Health – Hospital; • Education – Chisholm; • Transport/Logistics; and • Warehousing. • Net importer of workers. • Monash Freeway, Princes Freeway, • Eastlink. Affordable. • Rail connection & continued upgrades. • Renter market, apartments popular. •

ME L BOURNE E CONOMIC T RIANGL E Strength maintained but may change and evolve… 2050: Fully integrated Today: Building Blocks

JOBS GROWT H IN T HE SOUT H E AST Top 15 employment growth regions, 2013-2018 Victoria, Projected employment growth ('000) - five years to November 2018 Melbourne - West 351.1 Health Care and Social… 42.5 309.6 Retail Trade Melbourne -… 34.8 281.7 Manufacturing Perth - North… 34.1 Professional, Scientific and… 253.2 Gold Coast 32.9 Construction 247.1 Melbourne - Inner 229.0 Education and Training 32.9 183.0 Accommodation and Food… Perth - South East 31.4 142.1 Public Administration and… Sydney - City… 29.4 Transport, Postal and… 141.0 Sunshine Coast 18.9 Wholesale Trade 118.6 Sydney - Inner… 117.4 Financial and Insurance… 18.9 110.1 Other Services Brisbane Inner… 18.6 Administrative and Support… 98.8 Brisbane - South 18.1 Agriculture, Forestry and… 80.7 Ipswich 16.5 58.7 Arts and Recreation Services Fitzroy 58.0 Information Media and… 16.2 43.2 Rental, Hiring and Real… Sydney -… 16.1 Electricity, Gas, Water and… 37.1 Sydney -… 15.4 13.5 Mining 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 Employed Persons ('000s) Employed Persons ('000)

OVE RSE AS MIGRAT ION- VIC 2nd wave of change… majority of in-migrants from last 5 years from overseas employment and affordability drivers • changing housing requirement • 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -10,000 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+

NT OYME MPL NDS RS & E RE T DRIVE

E MPL OYME NT & PART ICIPAT ION RAT E S De c line labour for c e E mployme nt is gr owing par tic ipation sinc e mor e slowly afte r 30 ye ar s 2011 Population Gr owth, E mployme nt Gr owth (Million), Vic tor ia, Histor ic , L abour F or c e Par tic ipation (% ), Vic tor ia ABS, VIF 2016

E MPL OYME NT & PART ICIPAT ION RAT E S 65+ c ohor t will inc r e ase par tic ipation r ate s L abour F or c e Par tic ipation (% ), 65+, Vic tor ia

UNE MPL OYME NT & HOURS WORKE D Une mployme nt r ising but Youth une mployme nt still lowe r than for most of inc r e asing signific antly the last 30 ye ar s Australian, Vic torian Une mployme nt Rate (% ) Vic torian Une mployme nt Rate (% ), by Age Cohort No te : 1 Ave rag e o f ye ar up to F e b ruary. S o urc e : ABS Catalo g ue No . 6291.0.55.001 - L ab o ur F o rc e , Australia, De taile d - E le c tro nic De live ry, F e b 2015 Data Cub e L M8. S o urc e : ABS Catalo g ue No 6202.0 - L ab o ur F o rc e , Australia, F e b 2015

UNE MPL OYME NT & HOURS WORKE D High une mployme nt F alling hour s wor ke d pe r r ate ac r oss Gr e ate r wor ke r Me lbour ne Ave rage hour s worke d pe r month (No.), Vic toria Unde re mploye d pe rsons (No.), Vic toria

INDUST RY ST RUCT URE IMPL ICAT IONS F aste st gr owth Rapid gr owth 24.5% 11.4% 15% Health care, retail Most service industries Manufacturing is Construction is the Manufacturing is trade, education the largest second largest the largest and training and contributor of contributor of employing sector De c lining professional services economic input economic output Manufacturing share of output and employment “CBD” Implic ations for Me tr opolitan Me lbour ne owth in manufacturing, agriculture, wholesale trade and L owe r or ne gative e mployme nt gr construction is likely to affect those wor s with limite d qualific ations , particularly older males, ke r particularly in Gr e ate r Dande nong and City of Kingston.

INDUST RY ST RUCT URE IMPL ICAT IONS Ne t E mployme nt Change by Se c tor , Histor ic , F or e c ast, VIC Manufac tur ing Shar e of T otal E mploye d Pe r sons, VIC 15.5% 10.8% 12.8% 2001 2011 2011 S o urc e : ABS Ce nsus; E c o no mic .id; RE MPL AN S o urc e : NI E I R data, F e de ral De partme nt o f E mplo yme nt pro je c tio ns to No v 2018

INDUST RY ST RUCT URE IMPL ICAT IONS F aste r gr owth Slowe r gr owth Se r vic e jobs inc lude He avy industr ie s se c tor s and jobs se c tor s and jobs Health, education and public Will be automate d or se nt service, retail, food services and ie s : offshor e aged care services vic e jobs: Higher shares He avy industr Se r Manufacturing , traditional of female workers, white blue collar industries, lower collar professional jobs skilled jobs and manual jobs. Implic ations for Me tr opolitan Me lbour ne Inve stme nts in the public se c tor , particularly he alth and e duc ation is typically publicly funded and growth in these sectors may not c ontinue at the same rate into the future, putting e on some cohorts particularly e duc ate d wor pr e ssur ke r s and fe male wor ke r s.

S NGE E L CHAL

CHAL L E NGE S OF T RANSIT ION L OW T O HIGH DE NSIT Y CARS T O T RAINS

CHAL L E NGE S OF T RANSIT ION INDUST RIAL T O COMME RCIAL SHOPPING CE NT RE S T O MAIN ST RE E T

UNDE RST ANDING T HE BE NE F IT S A: How Dandenong accommodates the needs of a growing residential population? B: Unlike Paramatta, where Westmead and Moorebank 15km away. Dandenong is consolidated. C: How to change the wider population’s impression of the name “Dandenong”?

S UDIE ST CASE