CURRENT & CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF FUTURE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CURRENT & CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF SARASO SARASOTA COUNTY COUNTY, FL, T , FL, TO HURRIC HURRICANE ST NE STORM ORM SUR SURGE & E & SEA LEVEL RISE SEA LEVEL RISE Dr. Tim Frazier, Penn State University –The University of Idaho Dr. Brent Yarnal, Penn State University Dr. Nathan Wood, U.S. Geological Survey

Introduction Goal Develop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework that integrates geospatial analysis and stakeholder input to facilitate enhanced community resilience through planning. Vulnerability assessment including SLR – Decision-support methodology incorporating scientific – understanding with value-based human dynamics Inject SLR scenarios into long-range planning activities – Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Prior Research SLOSH Model = Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes Model Wu et al. (2002) Kleinosky et al. (2007) Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Prior Research Wood, Church, Frazier, & Yarnal (2007) Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Study Area Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 1 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 2 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 3 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Category 4-5 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

All Categories with SLR Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Percent of Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 1 Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota SLOSH Osprey Plantation Plus 30 Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Plus 60 Sarasota Springs Plus 90 Siesta Key South Gate Ridge Plus 120 South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 2 Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota SLOSH Osprey Plantation Plus 30 Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Plus 60 Sarasota Springs Plus 90 Siesta Key South Gate Ridge Plus 120 South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 3 Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota SLOSH Osprey Plantation Plus 30 Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Plus 60 Sarasota Springs Plus 90 Siesta Key South Gate Ridge Plus 120 South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 4/5 Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota SLOSH Osprey Plantation Plus 30 Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Plus 60 Sarasota Springs Plus 90 Siesta Key South Gate Ridge Plus 120 South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Percent Population Over 65 in Surge Zone ‐ Category 3 Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota SLOSH Osprey Plantation Plus 30 Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Plus 60 Sarasota Springs Plus 90 Siesta Key South Gate Ridge Plus 120 South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Percent Female Head of Households in Surge Zone ‐ Category 3 Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota SLOSH Osprey Plantation Plus 30 Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Plus 60 Sarasota Springs Plus 90 Siesta Key South Gate Ridge Plus 120 South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 1 Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota SLOSH Osprey Plantation Plus 30 Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Plus 60 Sarasota Springs Plus 90 Siesta Key South Gate Ridge Plus 120 South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions

Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 2 Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota SLOSH Osprey Plantation Plus 30 Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Plus 60 Sarasota Springs Plus 90 Siesta Key South Gate Ridge Plus 120 South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions