CREDIT CLUSTER AND CONTAGION RISK RELATED TO DISTRESSED MUNICIPALITIES BY RICHARD A. CICCARONE MERRITT RESEARCH SERVICES, LLC DISCUSSANT -- SHARON N. KIOKO UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
Chicago� Public Other� Public� Public� Schools Higher� School Ed Districts Moral� Cook� Obligation� County Econ� Dev Illinois McPier� &� Other� Exposition Counties RTA Chicago Medicaid� Other� Providers Cities
STATE COUNTY? METRO AREA? METRO AREA CITY TOWN SPECIAL SCHOOL CITY TOWN FIRE DISTRICT DISTRICT DISTRICT SPECIAL SCHOOL FIRE DISTRICT COUNTY DISTRICT DISTRICT SPECIAL SCHOOL DISTRICT DISTRICT
TOWN B TOWN A CITY B METRO AREA CITY C CITY A
Focus Cluster and contagion risk Interdependencies (e.g., economic base, intergovernmental fiscal relationships) Contribution Substantial improvement over our current understanding of financial condition analysis Model can be used by local governments to identify interdependencies and manage contagion risk States could manage risk exposure (e.g., state guaranteed tax-supported debt, pension liabilities) Limitation(s) Defining the relevant economic base and fiscal interdependencies Model specification particularly on the fiscal interdependencies Access to good data Broader application may be limited (non-regional governments, small rural communities)
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