CRAFTON HILLS COLLEGE 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CRAFTON HILLS COLLEGE 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS WORKSHOP TWO > ORGANIZE, SHARE, + LEARN DECEMBER 11, 2015

WORKSHOP TWO 02 > EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN GOAL >Provide Regional and Community Context for Planning • REGION: San Bernardino County & Riverside County • Community: College Service Area Cities/Zip Codes EMSI Analyst Platform > Primary Data Source • Historic information compiled from 90+ data sources, updated quarterly • Link historical trends with future projections • Improve connections between programs and labor market 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Crafton Hills Service Area Primary Cities: Beaumont, Calimesa, Mentone, Redlands, Yucaipa zip codes below represent 90% of unduplicated enrollment Zip Code City Zip Code City 92220 Banning 92382 Running Springs 92223 Beaumont 92399 Yucaipa 92313 Grand Terrace 92404 San Bernardino 92314 Big Bear 92404 San Bernardino 92320 Calimesa 92405 San Bernardino 92324 Colton 92407 San Bernardino 92325 Crestline 92408 San Bernardino 92335 Fontana 92410 San Bernardino 92336 Fontana 92411 San Bernardino 92346 Highland 92503 Riverside 92352 Lake Arrowhead 92508 Riverside 92354 Loma Linda 92509 Riverside 92359 Mentone 92553 Moreno Valley 92373 Redlands 92555 Moreno Valley 92374 Redlands 92557 Moreno Valley 92376 Rialto 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Historical Population Service Area Regional Area 5,000,000 4,545,323 4,481,004 4,416,590 4,350,609 4,302,146 4,243,556 4,500,000 4,160,575 4,113,339 4,067,241 3,986,424 3,875,627 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Population 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 987,862 967,154 976,089 931,224 943,457 952,304 904,261 911,872 918,789 892,135 874,176 1,000,000 500,000 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year  Regional Growth 2005-2015 = 17.3% (669,696 persons)  Service Area Growth 2005-2015 = 13% (113,686 persons)  State-wide Growth 2005-2015 = 9.1% (3,262,423 persons)  Service Area was 21.7% of Regional population in 2015 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Population Projection Service Area Regional Area 6,000,000 4,836,132 4,863,981 4,808,452 4,779,217 4,796,289 4,755,883 4,725,453 4,686,665 4,645,931 4,600,071 5,000,000 4,000,000 Population 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,042,329 1,046,942 1,015,081 1,022,408 1,028,052 1,032,399 1,035,498 1,037,736 999,564 1,008,004 1,000,000 - 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Year  Regional Growth 2016-2025 = 5.7% (263,910 persons)  Service Area Growth 2016-2025 = 4.7% (47,378 persons)  State-wide Growth 2016-2025 = 3.7% (1,472,522 persons) 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Regional Population by Age Group 19 and Under 20-24 25-29 30-49 50 and Over 2023 1,428,872 320,413 332,531 1,252,281 1,474,357 2020 1,420,472 308,507 377,768 1,218,673 1,430,464 2015 1,353,226 376,421 334,567 1,170,721 1,310,388 2014 1,356,049 358,227 322,936 1,163,265 1,280,527 Year 2013 1,348,107 353,178 311,589 1,155,586 1,248,128 2012 1,346,063 344,452 300,642 1,146,601 1,212,849 2011 1,353,619 333,119 296,762 1,143,657 1,174,989 2010 1,361,383 316,595 291,308 1,139,174 1,135,093 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010-2015 2015-2023 20-24 Age Group grew by 18.9% (59,826 persons) 20-24 Age Group declines by 14.9% (-56,008 persons) 50 + Age Group grew by 15.4% (175,295 persons) 50 + Age Group grows by 12.5% (163,969 persons) 20-29 Age Group grew by 17% (103,085 persons) 20-29 Age Group declines by 8.2% (-58,044 persons) 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Service Area Population by Age Group 19 & Under 20-24 25-29 30-49 50 & Over 2023 316,306 71,282 75,374 267,286 307,487 2020 314,913 69,455 85,644 260,194 297,847 2015 303,262 85,783 76,762 250,591 273,113 2014 305,474 81,665 74,269 249,367 267,067 Year 2013 304,475 81,003 71,821 248,202 260,513 2012 305,031 79,512 69,450 246,900 253,395 2011 307,770 76,836 68,516 246,882 245,568 2010 309,737 73,299 67,246 246,018 237,128 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010-2015 2015-2023 20-24 Age Group grew by 17.03% (12,484 persons) 20-24 Age Group declines by 16.9% (-14,501 persons) 50 + Age Group grew by 15.18% (35,985 persons) 50 + Age Group grows by 12..59% (34,374 persons) 20-29 Age Group grew by 15.65% (22,000 persons) 20-29 Age Group declines by 9.78% (--15,889 persons) 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Regional Population by Race/Ethnicity White Black/African American Asian Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander Hispanic/Latino American Indian/Alaskan Native Other/2 or More 1,488,254 337,833 332,705 14,265 2,552,583 19,038 114,324 2025 1,499,778 333,029 319,529 13,879 2,460,850 109,620 19,200 2020 1,521,020 321,815 292,858 2,276,693 19,477 100,375 13,084 2015 1,525,363 318,175 284,969 19,533 97,663 12,845 2,222,458 2014 Year 276,576 1,532,396 314,671 12,593 2,165,866 19,622 94,866 2013 1,541,297 2,105,956 311,176 268,137 12,334 19,770 91,938 2012 2,060,240 308,583 262,464 12,173 19,766 89,455 1,549,465 2011 12,055 2,008,976 1,555,750 305,278 254,886 19,737 86,874 2010 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010-2015 2015-2025 Hispanics increased to 50.1% of population (2,276,693 persons) Hispanics increase by 275,890 persons (52.5% of pop.) Whites decreased to 33.5% of population (1,521,020 persons) Whites decrease by 32,766 persons (30.6% of pop.) African Americans steady at 7.1% of population (321,815 persons) Asians increase by 39,847 persons (6.8% of pop.) 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Service Area Population by Race/Ethnicity White Black/African American Asian Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander Hispanic/Latino American Indian/Alaskan Native Other/2 or More 95,580 261,875 64,526 1,474 600,679 20,528 2,472 2025 265,876 62,042 1,438 581,498 2,490 19,813 94,895 2020 1,363 92,937 57,064 273,803 543,442 2,523 18,378 2015 1,341 55,622 275,847 92,253 532,287 17,961 2,530 2014 278,424 91,628 54,071 1,318 520,507 2,542 17,524 2013 1,293 91,053 52,532 508,239 281,541 2,560 17,070 2012 284,241 90,699 51,531 1,274 498,567 2,564 16,694 2011 16,266 286,544 89,892 50,012 1,264 486,892 2,558 2010 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010-2015 2015-2025 Hispanics increased to 54.92% of population (543,442 persons) Hispanics increase by 57,237 persons (57.36% of pop.) Whites decreased to 27.67% of population (273,803 persons) Whites decrease by 11,928 persons (25.01% of pop.) African Americans increased to 9.39% of population (92,937 persons) Asians increase by 7,462 persons (6.16% of pop.) 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Regional Population by Gender Male Female 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 Population 2,440,546 2,200,000 2,417,566 2,389,130 2,366,753 2,282,737 2,262,587 2,249,791 2,100,000 2,231,213 2,217,392 2,199,197 2,184,042 2,166,567 2,161,725 2,140,422 2,133,013 2,110,543 2,000,000 1,900,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Year  Male : Female proportion steady thru 2025 (49.8% : 50.2%) 2010-2015 2015-2025 Males increase by 7.2% (152,044 persons) Males increase by 6.8% (154,979 persons) Females increase by 7.0% (149,724 persons) Females increase by 6.9% (157,806 persons) 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Service Area Population by Gender Male Female 540,000 520,000 500,000 532,670 480,000 523,101 514,272 504,951 503,546 497,456 491,392 460,000 485,963 485,324 481,377 480,386 475,321 474,623 468,963 464,194 458,108 440,000 420,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025  Male : Female proportion steady thru 2025 (49.12% : 50.88%) 2010-2015 2015-2025 Males increase by 6.8% (27,855 persons) Males increase by 5.83% (28,309 persons) Females increase by 5.94% (28,225 persons) Females increase by 5.78% (29,124 persons) 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Demographics by Race/Ethnicity Contextualized Service Area  543,442 residents are Hispanic – roughly 55% of population  Over 3x as many Hispanics as national percentage  Percentage of Whites slightly below national average Regional  2,276,693 residents are Hispanic – roughly 50% of population  Nearly 3x as many Hispanics as national percentage  Percentage population of Whites below national percentage 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS

WORKSHOP TWO Educational Attainment 2010-2015 (5-Yr. Average) No HS HS Diploma or Equivalent Some College AA/AS BA/BS Graduate or Professor 39,525 179,284 136,796 66,416 7% 588,769 335,765 24% 7% 11% 22% 12% 45,396 208,313 8% 8% 150,901 696,893 140,492 680,773 26% 26% 24% 25% Service Area Regional 2,728,740 4,809,889 11% 19% 4,792,812 19% 5,215,991 21% 1,923,096 8% 5,459,780 22% California 2016 EDUCATIONAL AND FACILITIES MASTER PLANS