Presentation at the 37th Annual Conference of the International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA17), 4-7 April 2017, Le Centre Sheraton Montréal Hôtel Montréal, Canada Cost and GHG impacts of new oil sands technologies Experience Nduagu*, Alpha Sow, Evar Emeozor, Dinara Millington IAIA17, Montreal, QC April 7 2017 Relevant • Independent • Objective www.ceri.ca
About Canadian Energy Research Institute Overview Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non-profit research Institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. Relevant • Independent • Objective 2 www.ceri.ca
Current Sponsors Supporters include: In-kind support is also provided: Relevant • Independent • Objective 3 www.ceri.ca
Table of Content Oil Sands: Opportunities Vs. Challenges Why This Study? Closing The Gaps Methodology Results Concluding Remarks Relevant • Independent • Objective 4 www.ceri.ca
Oil Sands Opportunities: Economy To add $200 billion/year to Canada’s GDP in 20 Opportunities years 700,000+ Jobs Challenges However, significant challenges exist Relevant • Independent • Objective 5 www.ceri.ca
Oil Sands Challenges: Costs and GHGs 140 High Costs and GHG Emissions Crude Production Emissions Canada SCO 120 (kgCO 2 e/bbl) California Heavy 100 US Non Shale 80 Nigeria Bonny Canada Dilbit Iran Light Venezuela Iraq Basrah Light UK Norway 60 US Shale Russian ESPO 40 Saudi Arabia Brazil Marlim 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 Total production costs ($US/bbl) Relevant • Independent • Objective 6 www.ceri.ca
Why This Study? - Closing The Gaps Significant R&D efforts towards oil sands development Potential outcomes of these efforts not well-understood Need to quantify cost and emissions reduction opportunities from emerging technologies Relevant • Independent • Objective 7 www.ceri.ca
Methodology Assessed potential GHG emissions and cost reductions by new technologies in oil sands in-situ extraction SAGD process divided into 7 segments Focus on technologies near commercialization phase (5 – 7 years) Data gathered from innovators, interviews, surveys, expert elicitation and secondary sources Relevant • Independent • Objective 8 www.ceri.ca
Methodology Wells & Reservoir Wellpads Water & ( RES ) ( WWP ) Waste Teatment Costs & GHG ( WWT ) Pipeline & emissions Transport reductions ( PPT ) Steam Gen ( SG ) Business Upgrading Mgt ( UPG ) ( BM ) Relevant • Independent • Objective 9 www.ceri.ca
Methodology Relevant • Independent • Objective 10 www.ceri.ca
Results: Fuel Emissions of Bitumen Production Impact of new technologies on direct fuel emissions 60.4 60.4 60.4 60.4 56.7 52.9 60.4 57.4 54.2 SAGD 48.2 Base 16.4 15.1 Relevant • Independent • Objective 11 www.ceri.ca
Results: Supply Costs of Bitumen Production Impact of new technologies on supply cost 64.1 43.3 43.3 42.9 42.5 42.3 43.3 42.2 42 41.7 38.6 SAGD Base 29.6 Relevant • Independent • Objective 12 www.ceri.ca
Results: Technology Configurations Compatible processes and technologies BM WWP RES WWT SG Brownfield development Magox Steam flood Steam precipitation Steam solvent OTSG management Solvent and CO 2 conversion Greenfield development Steam/CO 2 Steam with CO 2 DCSG co- co-injection injection Evaporator Steam with Steam SOFC CoGen Steam flood Digitalization Well pad RT- management of EPC standardization Steam-solvent Chemical OTSG Steam water Solvent Steam-solvent treatment SOFC Cogen Pure Pure Solvent Solvent Relevant • Independent • Objective 13 www.ceri.ca
Results: Technology Configurations Supply cost and GHG emissions 70 SAGD Base GHG emissions (kgCO 2 /bbl) 60 50 Steam with CoGen 40 Brown 30 Steam/CO 2 field Steam Solvent Steam Solvent co-injection 20 CoGen Pure Solvent 10 0 20 25 30 35 40 45 Supply Cost (C$/bbl) Relevant • Independent • Objective 14 www.ceri.ca
Results: Oil Sands Emissions & 100 MtCO 2 Cap 140 GHG Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq./Yr) 120 100 MtCO 2 eq. Cap 100 80 60 40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Steam-solvent Cogen (SOFC) Scenario Pure Solvent Scenario Steam DCSG Based Scenario Steam SOFC Based Scenario Steam-Solvent (FTB w/o DCSG) Scenario 100 MtCO2 Cap Total Direct Emissions with CH4 Policy Relevant • Independent • Objective 15 www.ceri.ca
Results: Upgrading Technologies EJS Fractal Systems IYQ ETX Systems Hi-Q MEG Energy HTL Invanhoe (now Fluid Oil) DSU Field Upgrading CCC Bayshore Petroleum Relevant • Independent • Objective 16 www.ceri.ca
Results: Upgrading Technologies 100% 35 90% 30 80% Volumetric yield (%) 25 70% API Gravity 60% 20 50% 15 40% 30% 10 20% 5 10% 0% 0 EJS IYQ Hi-Q HTL Delayed Bitumen Dilbit coking (WCS) Resid Gas oil Diesel Kerosene Distillate Naphtha API Relevant • Independent • Objective 17 www.ceri.ca
Results: Upgrading Technologies 140 Delayed HTL GHG emissions (kgCO 2 eq./bbl) Coking 130 API 19 API 31 120 IYQ Hi-Q API 22.9 110 API 20.4 DSU API 18 100 CCC 90 API 21 80 EJS SAGD Dilbit 70 API 19 API 20 60 50 50 55 60 65 70 WCS-eq. Supply Cost (C$/bbl) Relevant • Independent • Objective 18 www.ceri.ca
Concluding Remarks Clear pathways for significant costs and emissions reduction identified in this study Costs reductions of 12% to 46% GHG emissions reduction of 44% to 80% A significant room for oil sands production growth without reaching 100 MtCO 2 eq/year However, de-risking promising technologies through further development (piloting and demonstrations) is imperative Relevant • Independent • Objective 19 www.ceri.ca
Canadian Energy Research Institute Questions? Experience Nduagu, Ph.D. Email: enduagu@ceri.ca Please visit us at www.ceri.ca Relevant • Independent • Objective 20 www.ceri.ca
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