Cornwall’s Carbon Neutral Action Plan – Progress to date Update 31 st May - Neighbourhoods Overview and Scrutiny Committee
Meeting structure • Introduction – Drivers for change • Known risks to Cornwall from Climate Change • What we have already done & where are we now? • Evidence base on progress • Scale and visions of change • Building the ‘Action Plan’ – Approach & Themes – Areas of influence – Grand challenges – Early action & implementation • Next Steps
Cornwall’s Carbon Neutral Challenge – drivers for change
Young, old and iconic are realising the gravity of the ‘Climate Emergency’ to our civilisation The future looks very alarming indeed, but it is not too late to act. We still have time if we act now with determination and urgency. Sir David Attenborough, Climate Change – The Facts (April, 2019) We all have a choice. We can create transformational action that will safeguard the living conditions for future generations. Or we can continue with our business as usual and fail. Greta Thunberg, Davos Address (Jan 2019)
Science is building consensus on need for action To avoid exceeding the 1.5°C target, global net anthropogenic . CO2 emissions must decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Special Report 15 (Oct, 2018) https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ ‘Towards Net Zero by 2050’ / low-carbon electricity (must quadruple its supply by 2050) Efficient buildings and low-carbon heating carbon capture and storage diversion of biodegradable waste from landfill phase-out of fluorinated gases Fifth of the UK’s agricultural land must shift to alternative use to support emissions reduction Accelerate afforestation, biomass production and peatland restoration
Opinion is divided on urgency of action required – it is a political issue - Government at all levels is facing direct action from climate activists Extinction Rebellion (XR) are demanding that the UK and local Governments: • Tell the truth – declaring a climate and ecological emergency • Act now – reducing emissions to net zero by 2025 • Go beyond politics - Creating and ceding leadership of UK climate decisions to a Citizens’ Assembly on climate and ecological justice - replacing representative democracy with a people led participatory climate governance system. . There are still deniers however! /
Is carbon neutral possible by … …? 2025 2030/35 2045/50 • Called for by XR • Impossible • ‘Agreed’ IPCC and without Govt Govt positions • Theoretically policy support possible -Zero • Less politically Carbon Britain • Shows genuine disruptive ambition • Would require • Unlikely to catalyse unprecedented • Significant change necessary radical Govt leadership at a local level change and action. could be made • Could prove to be • Necessary complacent given according to some science scientists.
The Motion RESOLVED that the Council: 1. Declare a ‘climate emergency’. 2. Call on Westminster to provide the powers and resources necessary to achieve the target for Cornwall to become carbon neutral by 2030 and commit to work with other Councils with similar ambitions. 3. Provide adequate staff time and leadership to prepare a report within six months to establish how Cornwall can sufficiently reduce carbon emissions through energy efficiency, low-carbon fuels and investment in renewable energy and other Council strategies, plans and contracts within a timescale which is consistent with an ambition to restrain Global Warming to 1.5⁰C. This will draw together the actions Cornwall Council is already and will continue to take; and where possible, outline partners’ commitments to move towards a carbon neutral Cornwall by 2030.
Councils and Parish Councils • Circa 113 Councils & Parish Councils have declared a climate emergency to date • Circa 63% have set a target of Carbon Neutrality by 2030 • UK Parliament have declared climate change emergency and net zero carbon by 2030 . • London & Manchester both declared climate emergencies prior to close of 2018 • London committed to net zero carbon by 2050 , using existing 2018 plan • Manchester , produced an intern plan by Feb 19 . Final plan expected before 2020
What does climate change mean for Cornwall? Known risks, i mpacts and vulnerabilities
Visible impacts of climate change Increased wind, rain and storm intensity
Vulnerability is a function of pressures and zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA releases – our planning and decisions matter Dynamic Pressures Root Causes Unsafe Conditions Hazards Risk • Lack of • Limited Access • Fragile Physical • Rapid Response Emergency Plans to: Environment e.g. Catchments Finance flood defence • Sense of Development condition • Pluvial Flooding Responsibility or Space Intense Importance • Fragile Local Support for Sustained Economy e.g. Communities • Holiday Home reliant on limited • Storm Surge & Tide Ownership transport • Landscape, infrastructure Locking Flood Flood Topography & • Small or Aging Geology • Vulnerable • Coastal Erosion Populations Society e.g. 20% • Asset deprivation zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA • Drainage System Failure • Large Tourist Ownership Population • Fragile • Flood Defence Failure Environment e.g. • Poverty • Land Use agricultural runoff • Watercourse • Trust in System Erosion/Siltation • Property impacts for Protection The Progression of Vulnerability
Less visible / Invisible impacts • Seasonal timing changes impacting food chains for all species • Seasonal disruption to energy demand and tourism economies • Increased risk of drought & fire risks • Biosecurity – increase risk of diseases and invasive species on native ecosystems • Vulnerable UK and international supply chains.
What have we already done and where are we now?
Previous and Existing Programmes 2008 2012 2011 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cornwall’s Carbon Dioxide emissions – by source • Cornwall has seen a c32% (1,303 ktCO 2 ) reduction in CO 2 emissions in the 11 years from 2005 (4,124 ktCO 2 ) to 2016 (2,821 ktCO 2 ) • At least two thirds of the emission reductions having been achieved by decarbonising electricity . • The CO2 data shows Cornwall is making reasonable progress towards meeting the Green Cornwall 2020 target of 2.99 MtCO2e (nb. CO2e target) Thousand Tonnes Carbon Dioxide 2.8 million 4,500 4,000 tonnes CO2 3,500 saved 3,000 2,500 Electricity 2,000 Natural Gas 1,500 Oil/Coal 1,000 Petrol/Diesel 500 CO2 Removal - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -500
Cornwall’s Carbon Dioxide emissions – by sector • Beyond decarbonisation of electricity the remaining reductions came the reduced energy used for heating homes and businesses • Transport is now Cornwall’s largest emitting sector making up 36% (1,037 ktCO2) with a minimal reduction having occurred since 2005. Thousand Tonnes Carbon Dioxide 4,500 Residential 4,000 Commercial 3,500 Agriculture - Energy 3,000 Large Industrial 2,500 Road Transport 2,000 Rail Transport 1,500 CO2 Removal 1,000 500 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -500
inventory CDC 2011 Greenhouse gas Going beyond CO2: Understanding importance of non-CO2 gases Cornwall GHG inventory last produced 2008 data year (c14% were non-CO2 GHGs) 4.7 million tonnes CO2
Cornwall GHG Inventory updates & Scenarios University of Exeter commissioned to produce: • GHG Inventory for 2009-2017 data years using WRI Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GPC) • Modelling different scenarios for achieving carbon neutral Findings expected June WRI (2014). GPC
Scenarios to achieve carbon neutrality - What will the analysis tell us? Stage One: Using a standard model to provide: • Cornwall baseline: Business as Usual (BAU) • Scenario 1: Change required to achieve carbon neutral by 2030 (CC motion) • Scenario 2: Change required to achieve carbon neutral by 2050 (Govt – CCC report) Stage two: Models for achieving the Scenarios • Different options (mixes of interventions) of how the selected scenario can be achieved
The scale and visions of change
Carbon Neutral Means… Getting to carbon neutral will require significant changes to the way we do things, from the energy we use, to the products and food that we buy. If guided well this can bring many additional benefits.
Unprecedented Changes – To EVERYTHING! Leadership Paradox WAR FOOTING URGENCY + COMPLEXITY + COLABORATION = HARD CHOICES CLIMATE CHANGE
Carbon Neutral Means… ….that all the electricity we will use must come from clean production technologies, with the benefits from that energy, ideally staying in Cornwall. … our cars, homes and businesses must run on zero carbon energy sources, providing a cleaner local and global environment
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