Coping with Residential Electricity Demand in India’s Future – How Much Can Efficiency Achieve? Virginie E. Letschert Michael A. McNeil 1 1
India Residential Electricity Consumption 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Residential Electricity Consumption GDP in Constant $ Electricity consumption x3 between 1990-2004 Grows faster than GDP (8% growth for electricity demand vs 6% growth for GDP) What will electricity demand be like in 5, 10, 20 years? What can energy efficiency policy achieve? 2
Background Part of Global Energy Demand Collaborative – LBNL initiative towards a enduse level forecast of energy related emissions from all sectors in all regions. Modular Analysis Framework allows for focused analysis, such as Country/Sector Studies ( Letschert 2007 ) Enduse Studies (McNeil 2007, McNeil 2006) Detailed (Enduse and Region) Efficiency Scenarios 3
Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) Appliance Ownership Forecast Appliance Ownership Forecast Var 1 Var 1 Var 1 Var 1 Var 2 Var 2 Var 2 Var 2 Var n Var n Var n Var n National Macroeconomic Variables National Macroeconomic Variables (Urban and Rural) (Urban and Rural) 1 1 Diffusion Model Diffusion Model Per-Unit Saving Scenario Per-Unit Saving Scenario Baseline UEC Baseline UEC UEC Savings UEC Savings UEC Savings Diffusion Rate for appliances Diffusion Rate for appliances Diff 1 Diff 1 Diff 1 Diff 1 Diff 2 Diff 2 Diff 2 Diff 2 Diff n Diff n Diff n Diff n 2 2 3 3 Stock Accounting Stock Accounting Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency Scenario Scenario Scenario Shipments and Stock Shipments and Stock X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 X n X n X n X n Calculation of Savings Potential Calculation of Savings Potential 4 4 National Savings National Savings National Savings 4
Residential End Uses 1 Cover all residential electricity end uses (in different levels of detail) Model Rural and Urban Diffusion separately Lighting – According to electrification. Number of lamps modeled by income (household expenditure) Appliance Ownership: TV, Fans, Refrigerator, AC, Washing Machine and Electric Water Heaters (Geysers). Diffusion ( I ) = Electrification ( I ) x Diffusion E ( I ) 5
1 Electrification Model Follows S-shaped curve with rapid uptake (Gompertz) Elec exp( (exp( Inc ))) = � � � � 100% 90% R 2 =0.96 80% 70% Urban Data 60% R 2 =0.95 Rural Data 50% Urban Model 40% Rural Model 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 MPCE Rs Monthly Per Capita Expenditure MPCE is Proxy for Income Data from National Sample Survey Organization 1999/2000 6
Modeling Lighting Consumption 1 2 Electric Lighting Saturation = Electrification Rate Lighting Consumption Determined by Breakdown between Incandescent and Fluorescent Number of Bulbs per household as a function of Income Consumption Given by Number of Bulbs/Household x Power x Hours of Operation Source: A.Kulkarni, G.Sant, Urbanization in search of energy in three Indian Cities* , Energy Vol. 19, No. 5, pp.549-560, 1994 *Pune, Ahmednagar and Talegaon 7
Modeling Appliance Ownership 3.5 1.8 1.6 3 Rural Urban 1.4 2.5 1.2 2 1 0.8 1.5 0.6 1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 MPCE (Rs) MPCE (Rs) R u r a l 0 0 Fan Data 2 0 0 4 0 0 TV Data 6 0 0 Ref Data 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 AC Data 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 WH Data WM Data MPCE (Rs) Fan Model TV Model Ref Model AC Model WH Model WM Model Others 8
Projecting Appliance Ownership •1990-2004: Historical Per Capita Growth Rate (3.7% on average) •2004-2030: SRES B2 4.7% per year •all income categories scale with growth rate 120% 120% Rural Households Urban Households 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electrification TV Refrigerator Electrification TV Refrigerator WH WM AC 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 1 0 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 WH WM AC 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 Others Others * Other category modeled according to Karnataka Survey (Murthy) 9
Baseline UECs 2 Constant except: Refrigerators (Share of frost-free, 2 door- fridge increases vs Single door) Air Conditioners (Function of income) Water Heaters (Household Size decreasing) UEC (kWh) Reference/Assumption 2000 2030 2000 2030 Refrigerators 494 657 LBNL Estimates LBNL Estimates Air Conditioners 2,160 4,620 LBNL, based on RAMA estimates Hong Kong in 1996 (Lam,2000) Washing Machines 190 190 Euromonitor, 2003 and Sanchez, 2006 Euromonitor, 2003 and Sanchez, 2006 Fans 145 145 Karnataka Survey Karnataka Survey TV 150 150 Karnataka Survey Karnataka Survey Water Heaters 617 591 Reddy, 1995 Reddy, 1995 Fluorescent Tube 40W 58 58 4 hrs a day 4 hrs a day Incandescent Lamp 60W 88 88 4 hrs a day 4 hrs a day Others 298 298 Karnataka Survey Karnataka Survey 10
Household Consumption 2000-2030 3,500 3,000 Others Lighting 2,500 WH kWh/year/household TV 2,000 Fan WM 1,500 AC Refrigerator 1,000 500 - 2000 2030 Urban: 2000 kWh 4000 kWh Rural: 250 kWh 2500 kWh 11
Modeled India Residential Electricity Consumption 1000 Others 900 TV 800 Water Heater Fan 700 Washing Machine 600 Air Conditioner TWh 500 Refrigerator Lighting 400 TERI Coal Industry Study 300 200 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 12
Efficiency Scenarios 3 Base case UEC High Efficiency Efficiency Product Reference 2010 Case UEC 2010 Improvement 528 237 Refrigerators 55% TERI Air Conditioners 2980 2473 17% RAMA Ballasts 10 W per 4 W per fixture 6 W Voice fixture CFLs 40W 15W 75% per replacement Water Heaters 607 455 25% Voice Fans 145 100 30% USDOE Washing Machines Semi-Automatic 125 46 63% Mexico Data Automatic 452 325 28% EU 1400 Example: Lighting UEC with 1200 CFL introduction of 1 CFL per IL 1000 FL -75% Household every 5 years and 800 kWh efficient ballasts 600 400 -15% 200 0 2000 2030 2030 Eff Case 13
Total Electricity Consumption, Base 4 Case and High Efficiency Case 1200 Others TV 1000 Water Heater Fan Washing Machine 800 Air Conditioner Refrigerator TWh 600 Lighting Base Case 400 Introduction of ‘Standards’ 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 14
Base Case Consumption, Efficiency Case Consumption, Savings High Efficiency Base Case Case Consumption Consumption Savings Savings TWh TWh TWh % Year 2030 Lighting 338 241 97 41% Refrigerator 77 35 42 18% Air Conditioner 208 173 35 15% Fan 116 81 35 15% Water Heater 78 58 19 8% Washing Machine 19 10 9 4% TV 37 37 0 0% Others 97 97 0 0% Total 970 733 237 1 Cumulative High Efficiency Primary Cumulative Base Case Case Energy CO2 Consumption Consumption Savings Mitigation Year Savings Savings TWh TWh TWh % Mtoe Mt (CO2) 146 146 0 0% 0 0 2005 226 212 15 6% 14 54 2010 342 287 54 16% 78 298 2015 503 395 108 21% 224 853 2020 710 539 171 24% 473 1,802 2025 970 733 237 24% 834 3,176 2030 15
Conclusion Electricity consumption x10 between 2000 and 2030 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential Electricity Consumption GDP in Constant $ Efficiency Scenario About 1/3 of savings from Lighting – ½ from REF+AC+FAN 25% of Electricity Saved in 2030 – about 5 years of growth Further reductions require fresh ideas. 16
Thank you! VELetschert@lbl.gov MAMcNeil@lbl.gov 17
Extra Slides 18
Residential Consumption in A1 scenario (5.5% per cap) Others 1000 TV Water Heater Fan 800 Washing Machine Air Conditioner Refrigerator 600 Lighting TWh B2 Scenario 400 200 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 19
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