Controlling climate change after Copenhagen Dr. Bert Metz Former Co-chairman IPCC Working Group III Fellow, European Climate Foundation Pardee Center Seminar, Boston University, February 2, 2010
Copenhagen • Inability to conclude 2 year negotiation process • Acrimoneous process • Political declaration (not unanimous) >> Copenhagen Accord • Decisions to continue negotiations, aiming at completion at COP 16/ Mexico (Nov/Dec 2010) Controlling Climate Change 2
Copenhagen Accord(1/3) In But Consequence Recognising 2 degree limit •No reduction We are on track to 3-4 commitments to get there; degrees; chances of staying • Targets/actions likely to below 2 degrees virtually get in far below top end zero Review in 2015 with option No strengthening of 2020 This is lip service to to tighten global limit to 1.5 reduction commitments vulnerable countries; has no degrees practical impact; does not increase chance to stay below 2 degrees Annex I countries to list •Terms “developed” and •Including “new developed their 2020 targets and “developing”(as in Bali countries” impossible; non-Annex-I PART of their Action Plan) disappeared; •Big loopholes on value of actions by Feb 1, 2010 •Accounting rules NOT targets; uniform; nothing about •No pressure on maximizing surplus AAU; reductions •No benchmark on how much they do 3 Controlling Climate Change
Copenhagen Accord (2/3) In But Consequence Stressing importance of Money likely to be at Vulnerable countries are adaptation and provide least partly relabelled getting financial support, about half of $30 billion ODA while climate change in support 2010-2012 impacts are getting much worse “we support the goal to •No commitment to Unclear if there ever will mobilise $100 billion by deliver this money; be significant money 2020 “; public and private •No mechanisms to money generate funding; •No governance structure to manage effective disbursement Copenhagen Climate •Nothing how to fill the Unclear if fund will ever be Fund established fund operational •Nothing on governance (only Panel to study resources) 4
Copenhagen Accord (3/3) In But Consequence Establish a REDD + Nothing established and Fast start money will partly mechanism” no process to establish it; flow to countries to avoid no rules deforestation; rest unclear Establish a technology No details No effective mechanism to mechanism Negotiations aiming at promote technology administrative approach transfer Develop market Nothing about reforming No agreement on CDM approaches carbon market reform No hard caps> no International carbon market market? uncertain “provide incentives to Nothing about Low No impact on producing developing countries to Carbon Growth Plans low carbon development continue on a low plans emissions path” 5
CopenhagenDecisions In But Consequence Decision to continue No statement on legally Totally unclear if there will AWG-LCA and request binding outcome; no be serious negotiating to deliver outcome by process decisions; process (also in light of COP16 vague paragapah on acrymoneous debates in Mexico mandate CPH) Decision to continue Demands of EU, Japan, Kyoto Annex B countries AWG-KP and request to Russia , Australia to may never agree with KP deliver outcome at have legally binding amendment or never COP16 outcome (=Protocol) ratify from LCA ignored; vague paragapah on Mexico mandate Controlling Climate Change 6
WHY TAKING ACTION TO CONTROL CLIMATE CHANGE IS VERY URGENT Controlling Climate Change 7
Climate change risks now seen as more serious From Schneider, S., Nature, vol 458, April 30 2009, p 1104-1105 Controlling Climate Change 8
Climate change risks now seen as more serious Large scale In- permafrost creased melt Crop productivity risk of in temperate Widespread forest regions reduced water scarcity fires Greenland (millions Crop productivity Ice Sheet in tropics reduced Increased melts flooding/ droughts (millions) From Schneider, S., Nature, vol 458, April 30 2009, p 1104-1105 Controlling Climate Change 9
Where to draw the line and what that implies for GHG emissions? Post-SRES (max) Post-SRES (max) 35 35 Stabilization targets: Stabilization targets: E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq Equilibrium global mean temperature Equilibrium global mean temperature 30 30 D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq increase over preindustrial (°C) increase over preindustrial (°C) C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq 25 25 Wold CO2 Emissions (GtC) Wold CO2 Emissions (GtC) A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq 20 20 15 15 Copenhagen 10 10 Accord limit 5 5 Post-SRES (min) Post-SRES (min) 0 0 00 00 -5 -5 GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq) GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels Global Mean Year global Reduction in 2050 Stababilization temperature Year global CO 2 global CO 2 level increase CO 2 needs emissions emissions (ppm CO 2 -eq) at equilibrium to peak back at compared to (ºC) 2000 level 2000 445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50 490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30 535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5 590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60 710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85 855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140
Pre-Copenhagen proposals get us within 5 Gt of a 450 ppm pathway if nations deliver upper range of proposals Global GHG emissions Gt CO 2 e per year 65 Reference path-way 61 "Business as Usual" 60 Low case of current 54 proposals* 55 High case of current 49 50 proposals* 45 450 ppm pathway 44 (with overshoot) 40 10 * E.g., 20% vs. 30% below 1990 emissions in the EU – taking into account the effect of the recession and lower expected emissions from deforestation and peat 12 Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis
But are putting us on a track to 3 degrees or more…… Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG stability Gt CO 2 e, 2020 Peak at 550 ppm, long-term stabilization 550 ppm Peak at 510 ppm, long-term stabilization 450 ppm Low range Peak at 480 ppm, long-term stabilization 400 ppm of proposals Probability of High range temperature Expected of proposals increase temperature under 2 ˚C increase 3.0 ˚C 15-30% 2.0 ˚C 40-60% 1.8 ˚C 70-85% 13 Source: IPCC WG3 AR4; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Meinshausen; McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Project Catalyst analysis
Implications for contributions by countries Scenario Region 2020 2050 category A-450 ppm Annex I -25% to -40% -80% to -95% CO 2 –eq 2) Non-Annex I 15-30% deviation from Substantial deviation from baseline in baseline in Latin all regions America, Middle East, East Asia B-550 ppm Annex I -10% to -30% -40% to -90% CO 2 -eq Non-Annex I Deviation from baseline Deviation from baseline in most in Latin America and regions, especially in Latin America Middle East, East Asia and Middle East C-650 ppm Annex I 0% to -25% -30% to -80% CO 2 -eq Non-Annex I Baseline Deviation from baseline in Latin America and Middle East, East Asia Controlling Climate Change 14 IPCC, AR4, den Elzen and Hoehne, 2008
DEVELOPMENT FIRST: WHY MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO DEVELOPMENT POLICY IS ESSENTIAL Controlling Climate Change 15
Development and climate change Controlling Climate Change 16
Development Projected climate change path with HIGH base emissions 2 degrees above pre-ind Development path with LOW emissions Controlling Climate Change 17
The response to climate change must be rooted in development Development Climate- resilient development • Development is essential Climate- for eradicating poverty compatible development • Climate change can undermine development Adaptation Mitigation • Low carbon and climate resilient development (“climate compatible development”) as the answer Controlling Climate Change 18 Source: Project Catalyst
Low carbon development is economically attractive Controlling Climate Change 19
Mainstreaming climate change in development policies • Modernising industry to become competitive • Improving energy security and reducing oil imports • Providing clean and efficient transport to people • Improving air quality to protect health • Ensuring a strong and sustainable agricluture and forestry sector • Greening macro-economic policy • Providing electricity to the poor • Developing coastal regions sustainably • Building a good public health system • Protect nature and biodiversity Controlling Climate Change 20
How to change development paths? • Develop capacity for change • Start at the top • Coordinate actions • Climate proofing • Prepare long term low carbon, climate resilient development plan (= green growth plan) Controlling Climate Change 21
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