Contents Road safety in an uncertain technological future AVs and - PDF document

Contents Road safety in an uncertain technological future AVs and Expectations of positive impacts on 1. road safety 2. Six Dimensions for AVs and Road Safety Ana Martins – Ph. D. Student (CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa) anarmrmartins@tecnico.ulisboa.pt � A proposal for a Framework of Reference Filipe Moura (presenting author) – Associate Professor (CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa) 3. fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt Summary and Conclusions Carlos Azevedo – Associate Professor (Technical University of Denmark) climaz@dtu.dk . October 25, 2018 “who does what, when” Expected advantages… (USDOT/ NHTSA, 2016) representative but certainly not comprehensive Human driver monitors the Automated driving “system” driving environment monitors the driving environment • User perspective – Greater mobility freedom No automation Conditional automation 0 3 Human driver executes all Monitoring of driving environment by – From disutility to utility of tasks of driving the system but human driver should travel time respond to a request to intervene Driver assistance High assistance – Another mode of shared 1 4 Driver assistance system on Fallback performance of dynamic mobility (more flexibility) steering or driving task by the system acceleration/deceleration – Possibly, no or less car ownership costs Partial automation Full automation 2 5 – Fewer traffic collisions (elimination or minimization of One or more driver assistance Full-time performance by an systems on both steering and automated driving system (all modes) human errors) acceleration/deceleration

Expected advantages … Expected advantages … representative but certainly not comprehensive representative but certainly not comprehensive • Society perspective • Operation perspective – Better mobility for impaired – Reduced congestion and senior citizens – More effective navigation – Reduced externalities (if (less time losses and costs) electric and shared AVs) – More effective use of – Reduced accident rates vehicles (Shared AVs) and less societal losses – Reduced number of on-road vehicles (Shared AVs) – Increasingly feasible transportation services of – More efficient infrastructure (e.g., platooning) enhanced safety, reliability, security, and productivity – Less infrastructure repair and maintenance costs (incl. those related to accidents) Problems … Problems … representative but certainly not comprehensive representative but certainly not comprehensive • Operation perspective • User perspective – Upgrade for connected – Costs infrastructures and vehicles – Privacy loss – Different patterns of pavement deformation – Computer malfunctioning – Hacking of the system – Hacking of AV – Weather (heavy rain) – Technology not fully mature – Liability in case of – Relies heavily on satellite accidents systems

Problems … representative but certainly not comprehensive • Society perspective – Loss of jobs – Equity – Potential pollution The automation of driving task takes the human error out increase (if not of the safety equation and it promisses to reduce the electric) number of accidents and victims. – Terrorist attacks (Fagnant & Kockelman, 2015; Hayes, 2011) The human error is blamed for 90 % of road accidents. – If just another technological change, more vkm (Maddox, 2012) potentially Total of victims ( per year) Possible cause of accident reported 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Opening door 11 16 12 14 7 No lights (when mandatory) 10 7 11 6 9 Driving away from road side 46 29 30 46 51 accidents classified 15%-17% of total accidents 87%-90% of total No respect for traffic lights 103 77 106 86 85 No respect for vertical signs 484 447 537 557 530 No respect for safety distances 317 311 382 447 458 No respect for horizontal signs 85 66 74 74 79 Blinded by lights 118 94 107 139 186 Unlawful movements 505 483 490 599 641 Movements without previous warning 31 26 20 47 36 Excessive speed 1 795 1 786 1 550 1 726 1 731 Mechanical failure of the vehicle 71 68 78 68 68 Unforeseen obstacle 383 351 310 323 330 Falling objects 10 9 10 4 3 Tire bore 79 71 67 62 54 Non-classified 19 477 20 239 21 829 21 566 23 744 N.A. 335 218 218 278 201 Total 23 860 24 298 25 831 26 042 28 213 ANSR, 2014-2018: Road safety reports for Portugal WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff (2016): Making better places: Autonomous vehicles and future opportunities

Contents Human Human behavior behavior AVs and Expectations of positive impacts on 1. Software road safety Travel develop- behavior ment Road 2. Six Dimensions for AVs and Road Safety safety Innovation & AV � A proposal for a Framework of Reference and Technology develop- maturity ment Technology 3. Summary and Conclusions deploymen t . Offsetting behavior Ethics New realities New realiities Human Rebound behavior effect Travel behavior Road Road New safety safety scenarios & AV & AV Less control by humans => less human-related mistakes • – Ethics: non-ethical human behavior towards AV (e.g., imagine an AV in a circle; bullying?) • More flexibility & comfort => more VKM? – Offsetting behavior: higher perceived safety => more careless behavior (e.g., belts) – New realities : Travel time becomes a positive utility => More urban sprawling – New realities: – Rebound effect: More flexible and easy-to-use (no parking issues) => More trips • automation reduces driving experience => reduce capacity of reaction – New scenarios: Empty trips in passenger transportation; new congestion patterns with • Transition period when drivers will share the road with driverless cars or with pedestrians and 2-wheelers fierce taxiing competition and private AV

• Better hardware, sensors and software capacity for new problems – New development: New technological solutions solve problems at a fast pace • Proof and validation of new – Diffusion: Challenges (such as safety) depend on rapid diffusion of new technologies (bad experiences can slow down the pace of diffusion – Tesla accident) technologies – Segregation: Diffusion of innovation must not depend on standard technological – New scenarios : AV’s software penetration of the automotive industry, i.e. new technology with new cars (software capabilities might change with new traffic updating and hardware standardization) patterns in the future – Time: New technologies must prove they Road Road are reliable, especially in these safety New safety scenarios & AV & AV circumstances where safety is a cornerstone issue Technology maturity – New development: Technological Technology deployment development is fast and new Time technological solutions must be tested New New Segregation development constantly (new validation methodologies development are required) Diffusion • Integration of innovation into • The decision-maker society – Data: Software must be robust to resist Ethics hacks; It must be interoperable between – Segregation: Vehicles with drivers and Liability makes and across countries driverless vehicle will coexist (at least at intersections). In the beginning, segregate – Liability: Liability in AV is from the car Software AV. In the future, segregate old (current) development producer; seller; software developer; Road Road technologies software distributor? Implication for Data Data safety safety insurance companies? & AV & AV – Points of conflicts: Intersections are Innovation always a major problem, also with AV (in – Ethics: Moral decisions can’t be learned. and development potential conflict with all other modes) They must be programmed according to Points of idiosyncrasies. These vary from country to – Data: Standard protocols have to be conflit country and culture to culture. defined in a connected road environment Segregation (V2V or V2I) for the consistency of the system.

Contents Offsetting behavior Ethics New calls AVs and Expectations of positive impacts on Human 1. Rebound Liability behavior effect road safety Software Travel development behavior Road New 2. Data safety Six Dimensions for AVs and Road Safety scenarios & AV Innovation Technology and � A proposal for a Framework of Reference maturity development Points of Technology conflit deployment Time 3. Summary and Conclusions New Segregation development Diffusion . Conclusion Policies Legislation The future is being built now: Human Human behavior Regulation behavior • To prepare the society for the diffusion of the AV Software And before that: Travel develop- behavior ment • To define regulation for AV Road safety & Do not forget that the human being is in the center of development AV Innovation and Technology develop- maturity ment Technology deployment