PM2.5 in London and the UK Concentrations and sources Gary Fuller, King’s College London
Contents • The Public Health Framework PM2.5 health indicator • What is PM2.5? • PM2.5 health impacts • How does PM2.5 vary spatially? • How does PM2.5 vary in time? • PM2.5 sources to be controlled. • Public air quality information.
Contents 3.1 The mortality effect of anthropogenic particulate air pollution (measured as fine particulate matter, PM2.5*) per 100,000 population. Mortality Burden: To be expressed as attributable deaths and associated years of life lost. (a) Attributable deaths are obtained by multiplying local PM2.5 data (population-weighted modelled background anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations, to be supplied by Defra – see below) by annual deaths (age 30+)** and the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP)-recommended relative risk of 6% increase in mortality per 10 μg /m3 PM2.5. (b) Years of life lost associated with these attributable deaths are then calculated (eg by summing age-specific life expectancies for each attributable death). Data on the resident population can be used to express the burden per 100,000 people. * PM2.5 means the mass (in micrograms) per cubic metre of air of individual particles with an aerodynamic diameter generally less than 2.5 micrometers. PM2.5 is also known as fine particulate matter. ** The national estimates (COMEAP, 2010) have been calculated using data on deaths at ages 30+, as this reflects the study in which the relative risk was reported. COMEAP considers that it might be appropriate to calculate local estimates using data on total deaths. DoH, 2012
Particulate matter associated with health effects is invisible PM 2.5 Ultrafine PM (2.5 mm) (0.1 mm) PM 10 PM 2.5 (10 (2.5 mm) mm) PM 10 (10 mm) Relative size of particles Human Hair (60 m m diameter )
PM 2.5 associations with life expectancy ( Pope et al, NEJM, 2009, 360: 376-386)
Across the UK PM2.5...... • equivalent of 29,000 premature deaths due to breathing tiny particles released into the air (in 2008 data) • the average loss of life was 6 months, (although the actual amount varies between individuals, from a few days to many years) • Economic cost of the order of £8-20 billion per year (from IGCB) Published December 2010 6
Across London PM2.5.... • an impact on mortality equivalent to 4,267 deaths in London in 2008, within a range of 756 to 7,965. • A permanent reduction in PM2.5 concentrations of 1μg/m3 would gain 400,000 years of life for the current population (2008) in London and a further 200,000 years for those born during that period. • followed for the lifetime of the current population, a 1 μg /m3 decrease would yield a life gain equivalent to an average 3 weeks per member of the 2008 population. 7
Background PM2.5 across the UK 2008 Brookes et al 2012 for Defra
PM2.5 across London 2008 King’s College London
(After Lenshcow et al 2001) Annual mean PM2.5 across London 2009 Annual mean ug m-3 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 200010 199310 198610 197910 197210 196510 195810 North 195110 194410 193710 193010 192310 191610 190910 190210 189510 188810 188110 187410 186710 186010 185310 184610 183910 183210 182510 181810 181110 180410 179710 179010 South east background PM2.5 Primary PM2.5 from London 178310 177610 176910 176210 175510 174810 174110 173410 172710 172010 171310 170610 169910 Modelling-King's College London 169210 168510 South 167810 167110 166410 165710 165010 164310 163610 162910 162210 161510 160810
PM2.5 variation in time North Kensington Jan – Apr 2012 100 80 10 60 PM 3 ) Concentration (g m 40 20 80 60 2.5 PM 40 20 0 Jan 01 Jan 15 Feb 01 Feb 15 Mar 01 Mar 15 date PM 10 PM 2.5
Episode 1 – 14 th -18 th January Species 50 Chloride Elemental Carbon 40 Nitrate Concentration Organic Aerosol (Cooking) 30 Organic Aerosol (Hydrocarbon-like) Organic Aerosol (Oxidised 1) 20 Organic Aerosol (Oxidised 2) Organic Aerosol (Solid Fuel) 10 Sulphate Water 0 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan 19-Jan date
Episode 1 – 14 th -18 th January Water 3% Sulphate 7% Chloride 17% Elemental Carbon 15% Nitrate 32% COA 5% HOA 3% SFOA 8% OOA2 7% OOA 1 3%
PM2.5 variation in time North Kensington Jan – Apr 2012 100 80 10 60 PM 3 ) Concentration (g m 40 20 80 60 2.5 PM 40 20 0 Jan 01 Jan 15 Feb 01 Feb 15 Mar 01 Mar 15 date PM 10 PM 2.5
Episode 2 – 10 th -14 th February Low temperature Long Range transport
Episode 2 – 10 th -14 th February Species 80 Chloride Elemental Carbon Nitrate 60 Concentration Organic Aerosol (Cooking) Organic Aerosol (Hydrocarbon-like) 40 Organic Aerosol (Oxidised 1) Organic Aerosol (Oxidised 2) Organic Aerosol (Solid Fuel) 20 Sulphate Water 0 10-Feb 11-Feb 12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb date
Episode 2 – 10 th -14 th February Water 5% Chloride 6% Sulphate 9% Elemental Carbon 9% COA 3% HOA 2% SFOA 3% OOA 1 3% OOA2 7% Nitrate 53%
North Kensington Jan – Apr 2012 100 80 • Long range transport • Low temperature 10 60 PM 3 ) • Low temperature • Poor dispersion Concentration (g m 40 • Approx 15% • Mean 30% urban 20 urban sources sources • Plus possible local • Hourly peak 60% nitrate formation urban sources 80 • 5% sea salt • Plus possible local 60 nitrate formation • 80% from outside 2.5 London PM • 17% sea salt 40 • Hourly peak >90% • 50% from outside 20 from outside London London 0 Jan 01 Jan 15 Feb 01 Feb 15 Mar 01 Mar 15 date PM 10 PM 2.5
Air pollution this morning
Daily variation in PM2.5 across the UK Daily mean concentrations close to roads and industry Laxon et al 2012, AQEG 2012 (draft). Roadside Industrial
Daily variation in PM2.5 across the UK Daily mean concentrations in urban background areas Laxon et al 2012, AQEG 2012 (draft). Winter Summer
PM from wood burning 4 Wales - big city England - towns England - big cities England - rural Scotland - big cities 3.5 Mean PM concentration ug m-3 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
Controlling PM2.5 Controlling the regional background Heavy industry, shipping, diesel road transport (ammonia from agriculture!) But are secondary inorganic pollutants the most toxic? Controlling urban sources Diesel road transport , solid fuel heating (wood, coal in N Ireland). (Catering???) Some evidence points to urban sources as having proportionally greater toxicity Minimising exposure Increased public awareness to reduce emissions and change travel patterns in highly polluted areas. Could be part of an active travel agenda.
Air quality information UK-Air
Air quality information LondonAir
Air quality information LondonAir
Acknowledgements • Funders • Defra, Natural Environment Research Council & the London boroughs who support the LAQN • Colleagues at King’s • David Dajnak and Sean Beevers. • David Green, Anja Tremper, Max Priestman, Anna Font, Ana Beckett, Andrew Grieve, Ellie Norris • National Physical Laboratory • David Butterfield, Sonya Beccaceci • University of Manchester • James Allan, Nicky Young
Controlling PM2.5 Controlling the regional background Heavy industry, shipping, diesel road transport (ammonia from agriculture!) But are secondary inorganic pollutants the most toxic? Controlling urban sources Diesel road transport , solid fuel heating (wood, coal in N Ireland). (Catering???) Some evidence points to urban sources as having proportionally greater toxicity Minimising exposure Increased public awareness to reduce emissions and change travel patterns in highly polluted areas. Could be part of an active travel agenda.
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