California Independent System Operator Corporation Competitive Path Assessment for MRTU Competitive Path Assessment for MRTU Preliminary Results for Spring and Summer Preliminary Results for Spring and Summer Seasons Seasons Richard Wu Richard Wu Department of Mark Department of Market Monitoring et Monitoring California In California Independent System Oper dependent System Operator ator October 24, 2007
California Independent System Operator Corporation Meeting Agenda Meeting Agenda Overview Overview The Feasibility Index Approach The Feasibility Index Approach The Simulation Model The Simulation Model Candidate Path Selection Candidate Path Selection Supporting Data Supporting Data Scenarios and Supplier Combinations Scenarios and Supplier Combinations Preliminary Results and Discussion. Preliminary Results and Discussion. 2 CAISO DMM/RW-JDMc 10/24/2007
California Independent System Operator Corporation Overview of CPA Overview of CPA Use a three piv Use a three pivotal supplier fr otal supplier framework to as amework to assess sess competitiveness. competitiveness. – Test whether transmission constraints are competitive when up to three potentially pivotal suppliers’ capacity is removed from the market. Process for com Process for competitive path de petitive path determination: termination: – Existing branch groups are ‘grandfathered’ competitive. – Non-candidate, non ‘grandfathered’ paths are not competitive by default. – Candidate paths tested for competitiveness using FI method. – Test across four seasons, load & hydro scenarios, potentially pivotal supplier combinations. – Physical infeasibility (FI < 0 on candidate path) in any hour results in failure of competitive test for candidate path. 3 CAISO DMM/RW-JDMc 10/24/2007
California Independent System Operator Corporation Review of General Methodology Review of General Methodology The Feasibility Index Approach The Feasibility Index Approach Feasibility Index (FI) – Feasibility Index (FI) – tests whether load can be tests whether load can be served without flow violations served without flow violations on candidate paths on candidate paths when supplier’s capacity is withheld when supplier’s capacity is withheld. – Soft constraints on all non-grandfathered paths. – Run simulation to meet CAISO load with 1, 2, or 3 potentially pivotal suppliers’ capacity removed. – Measure Feasibility Index of candidate paths: FI = (Path Limit – Path Flow) / Path Limit. – FI < 0 means congestion could not be relieved on that path when capacity was withheld => path is not competitive. 4 CAISO DMM/RW-JDMc 10/24/2007
California Independent System Operator Corporation Review of General Methodology Review of General Methodology Simulation Setup Simulation Setup Simulation Features Simulation Features: – 24 hour Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch based on DC-OPF algorithm – Co-optimization of energy market and upward AS market – Load curtailment with a penalty price of $1MM/MWh. – Transmission constraints violated with penalty price of $50k/MW. – No transmission contingency or unit outages considered. Simulation Scenario Simulation Scenarios: s: – Various system conditions for one day in each season – High, Medium, and Low load & hydro scenarios for each day – 44 withdrawn supplier combinations considered 5 CAISO DMM/RW-JDMc 10/24/2007
California Independent System Operator Corporation Candidate Path Se Candidate Path Selection lection Set of candidate paths determined by the historical frequency of Set of candidate paths determined by the historical frequency of real-time mitigation of congestion on a constraint. real-time mitigation of congestion on a constraint. If real-time congestion is mitigated in more that 500 hours in the If real-time congestion is mitigated in more that 500 hours in the prior 12 months, constraint is a “candidate” prior 12 months, constraint is a “candidate” path. path. Hours of congestion mitigation counted using real time out-of- Hours of congestion mitigation counted using real time out-of- sequence dispatches and real time RMR dispatches. sequence dispatches and real time RMR dispatches. Data used in calculation were updated to reflect more recent Data used in calculation were updated to reflect more recent system conditions: July 1, 2006, through June 30, 2007. system conditions: July 1, 2006, through June 30, 2007. These data, and the list of candidate paths, will be updated prior These data, and the list of candidate paths, will be updated prior to the final release of results. to the final release of results. Two groups of candidate paths were identified Two groups of candidate paths were identified – 24 “ aggregated ” candidate paths that are composed of multiple transmission segments based on nomograms. – 84 “single” candidate paths that are composed of single transmission segments. – See white paper at http://www.caiso.com/docs/2005/07/01/200507011120583480.html for full list. 6 CAISO DMM/RW-JDMc 10/24/2007
California Independent System Operator Corporation Aggregated Can Aggregated Candidate Paths didate Paths Operating Operating Maximim Mitigation aximim Mitigation Procedure Procedure Zone Zone Constraint Constraint Hours for Qualification Hours for Qualification T-126 NP26 Monta Vista - Jefferson 1,631 T-126 NP26 Ravenswood to San Mateo 1,631 T-133 NP26 Contra Costa 230kV Import 570 T-133 NP26 Moss Landing to Metcalf 570 T-133 NP26 Pittsburg (XFMR) 562 T-133 NP26 Pittsburg to San Mateo E. Shore 562 T-133 NP26 Ravenswood Cutplane 570 T-133 NP26 Tesla Banks 4 & 6 570 T-133 NP26 Tesla to Delta Switchyard 588 T-133 NP26 Tesla to Pittsburg 563 T-133 NP26 Vaca Bank & Tesla Bank 6 570 T-138 NP26 Humboldt Constraint and Banks 7,611 T-132 SP26 ElCentro 230/161 kV Bank 2,599 T-132 SP26 Imperial Valley Bank 2,599 T-132 SP26 Miguel 500/230 kV Banks 2,599 T-132 SP26 Miguel Max Import Constraint 2,599 T-132 SP26 San Diego Import (LNXFMR) 2,599 T-132 SP26 SDG&E CFE Import 2,599 T-132 SP26 Victorville-Lugo (HA-NG) 2,599 T-137 SP26 Serrano Bank 807 T-144 SP26 South of Lugo 1,253 T-159 SP26 Vincent Bank 1,077 See white paper for lis See white paper for list of lines t of lines associated w associated with associated aggre ith associated aggregated gated candidate paths and candidate paths and list of list of individual l individual lines that ines that are candidates are candidates and are not and are not associated with aggregated candida associated w ith aggregated candidate paths. te paths. 7 CAISO DMM/RW-JDMc 10/24/2007
California Independent System Operator Corporation Load and Hydro Sce Load and Hydro Scenario Selection nario Selection Three Scenarios: high / medium / Three Scenarios: high / medium / low low – Load Scenarios: using 2006 as the base year, choose representative load days on cumulative load duration curve – Hydro Scenarios: choose the 95 th percentile day from seasonal hydro production duration curves from 2002- 2006 – Dates identified for Load and Hydro scenarios in Release 2 are identical to those identified for Release 1. – Data will be updated prior to final release of CPA prior to MRTU go-live to reflect 2007 data. 8 CAISO DMM/RW-JDMc 10/24/2007
California Independent System Operator Corporation Withheld Supplier Combinations Withheld Supplier Combinations Single Pivotal Single Pivotal Suppler Withheld Suppler Withheld – Identify SCs who are net sellers w/ more than 1000 MW of installed capacity in CAISO control area: 8 identified. Two and Three Piv Two and Three Pivotal Suppliers Wi otal Suppliers Withheld thheld – Identify top 3 SCs in NP26 and top 3 SC’s in SP26 in terms of installed capacity. – All combinations of any two or three of these 6 SC’s were used in simulation. Number of Simulat Number of Simulations Run ions Run – Supplier combinations – 44 (incl. no suppliers withheld). – Load scenarios – 3. – Hydro scenarios – 3. – Seasons – 4. – Total number of simulations: 44 x 3 x 3 x 4 = 1,584 – Total number of hours simulated: 1,584 x 24 = 38,016 9 CAISO DMM/RW-JDMc 10/24/2007
California Independent System Operator Corporation Supplier Portfolios by Zone Supplier Portfolios by Zone Top 3 Suppliers have 11,505 MW of capacity Top 3 Suppliers have 11,505 MW of capacity Top 3 Suppliers in NP26 have 7,714 MW of capacity Top 3 Suppliers in NP26 have 7,714 MW of capacity Top 3 Suppliers in SP Top 3 Suppliers in SP26 have 8,397 MW of capacity 26 have 8,397 MW of capacity Installed Percent of Zonal Supplier CAISO Zone Capacity (MW) Capacity S1 NP26 4,182 15% SP26 751 3% S2 NP26 114 0% SP26 3,876 15% S3 SP26 2,582 10% S4 NP26 600 2% SP26 1,939 8% S5 NP26 2,347 9% S6 NP26 1,185 4% SP26 708 3% S7 SP26 1,148 5% S8 NP26 1,036 4% 10 CAISO DMM/RW-JDMc 10/24/2007
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