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2016 Outlook: Headwinds or Tailwinds? Boulder Economic Forecast Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division Leeds School of Business January 13, 2016 Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Percent Change, SAAR 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Long Term Real GDP Growth Trend Percent Change 20-Year Quarterly Moving Average 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Q2 1967 Q2 1973 Q2 1979 Q2 1985 Q2 1991 Q2 1997 Q2 2003 Q2 2009 Q2 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real GDP. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National Employment Thousands, Month-over- Month 500 300 100 -100 -300 Recession 18 Months Recession 8 Months -500 -700 -900 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
State Employment Growth Pre-Recession Peak to November 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 U-6 6.0 U-5 U-4 U-3 4.0 U-2 2.0 U-1 0.0 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National, by Age Cohort, November 2015 Labor Force Participation Rate Unemployment Rate 12% 90% 82.2% 80.7% 79.7% 80% 10% 9.6% 70.5% 70% 64.3% 8% 60% 50% 6% 5.5% 40% 3.9% 3.6% 4% 30% 3.3% 20% 2% 10% 0% 0% 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, all data seasonally adjusted except for ages 55-64. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Percent Real Disposable Income Real Personal Consumption Change Change 5.0 4.0 4.0 2.9% 3.0 2.9% 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Household Wealth Q2 2000-Q2 2015 $ Trillions 100 Other 80 Assets 60 Mutual Funds 40 Corporate Equities 20 Real Estate 0 Total Liabilities -20 Q1 2000 Q1 2003 Q1 2006 Q1 2009 Q1 2012 Q1 2015 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR FOR 15.0 20.0 14.0 19.0 Debt Service Ratio Financial Obligations Ratio 13.0 18.0 12.0 17.0 11.0 16.0 10.0 15.0 9.0 14.0 8.0 13.0 1980Q1 1983Q3 1987Q1 1990Q3 1994Q1 1997Q3 2001Q1 2004Q3 2008Q1 2011Q3 2015Q1 Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Index of Consumer Confidence Recession Recession 1985=100 8 months 18 months 160 Mountain Region 140 120 100 80 United States 60 40 20 0 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007 2010 2012 2015 Source: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Vehicle Sales Retail and Food Services Sales Thousands, SAAR YOY, Percentage Change 25,000 15.0 10.0 20,000 5.0 15,000 0.0 10,000 -5.0 5,000 -10.0 0 -15.0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Autodata Corp., Motor Intelligence, U.S. Census Bureau. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Nominal Corporate Profits and U.S. Business Fixed Investment Percent Percent Nominal Pre-Tax Business Fixed Change Change Corporate Profits Investment 10.0 30.0 25.0 4.3% 5.0 20.0 15.0 0.0 10.0 3.3% 5.0 -5.0 0.0 -10.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -15.0 -20.0 -20.0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
ISM Indices ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q3 2015 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National Housing Starts Millions 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Money, Interest Rates, and Prices Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Interest Rates Percent Interest Rates, 2000-2017 (Forecast) 7.0 10-Year Treasury 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 3-Month Treasury 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Moody’s Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
The FED Balance Sheet, 2007-2015 $ Millions 5,000,000 • QE 1, QE 2, QE 3 Other Assets 4,500,000 • Fed promises near zero Mortgage Backed interest rates until mid-2013, 4,000,000 Securities 2014, 2015, 2016 Federal Agency Debt 3,500,000 Securities • Operation Twist 3,000,000 Treasury Securities 2,500,000 • Swaps 2,000,000 • Tapering 1,500,000 • Tapering Complete 1,000,000 • Federal Funds Rate 500,000 Increase? 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
National Inflation Percent 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 -0.01 All Items All Items Less Food and Energy -0.02 Shelter -0.03 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Moody’s Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
International and National Summary Global output and trade growth Value of the dollar strengthening GDP growth nearing potential Balance sheets getting stronger Rising (but low) interest rates Subdued inflation Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Colorado Economy Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Change in Population Change in Colorado Population 2004-2040 Thousands 4th-fastest state for percentage growth 120 8th-fastest state for absolute growth 100 Net Migration 22nd-most populated state in nation 80 Continued net migration into the state 60 83% of population along Front Range Natural Increase 40 20 0 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 Source: Colorado Demography Office. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added, 1991-2016 Thousands 100 65,100 50 0 Best years since 2000 -50 -100 -150 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts. Business Research Division | Leeds School of Business | University of Colorado Boulder
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