COASTAL VULNERABILITY DUE TO SEA-LEVEL RISE HAZARDS IN THE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Band-Aid Project E S A E S A N A S A N A S A J A X A N A S A / D L R COASTAL VULNERABILITY DUE TO SEA-LEVEL RISE HAZARDS IN THE BANGLADESH DELTA: BAND-AID R. Rietbroek, B. Uebbing, C.K. Shum, V. Ballu, S. Calmant, J. Duan, J. Guo, F. Hossain, C. Jenkins, Z. Haque Khan, J. Kim, M. Kuhn, J. Kusche, F. Papa, K-H Teng, J. Wan, B. Braun, A. Bernzen, R. Ahmed, and M. Hossain LIVELIHOOD RESILIENCE, RESEARCH, AND PRACTICE BONN, 26 JUNE, 2015 Partner: Bonn University, Germany Ohio State Univ., US IRD, France Inst. For Water Modelling, Dhaka, BD University of Cologne, Germany Curtin University, Perth, AUS LEGOS, Toulouse, France Univ. of Rajshai, Rajshahi, BD Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Band-Aid Project BELMONT FORUM PROJECT: BANGLADESH COASTAL VULNERABILITY & SEA-LEVEL RISE HAZARDS, BAND-AID Ganges–Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh) is the largest Delta and one of the most densely population regions in the world 2 Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Band-Aid Project BELMONT FORUM PROJECT: BANGLADESH COASTAL VULNERABILITY & SEA-LEVEL RISE HAZARDS, BAND-AID Ganges–Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh) is the largest Delta and one of the most densely population regions in the world 3 • Bangladesh is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, storm surges, and climate change induced sea-level rise. Land subsidence caused by tectonics, sediment load and ground water extraction have exacerbate the risks for Bangladesh’s coastal vulnerability • Objectives: (1) establish a satellite geodetic observational system to quantify sea-level rise and land motion in the Delta, and to project relative sea-level rise to 2100 and beyond, at fine regional scales , and (2) to quantify the human interaction and social sciences that govern coastal vulnerability in Bangladesh Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

20th century global mean sea level rise 4 Tide gauge trend ~1.6-1.8 mm/year Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Sea level rise is not uniform 5 Mean: 3mm/a Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Sea level rise is not uniform 6 Mean: 3mm/a BoB: 6 mm/a Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

What are the issues adressed in Band-Aid 7 Bangladesh Assessment of SLR (~6 mm/y) and physical/social implications Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

What are the issues adressed in Band-Aid Himalaya and upstream Monsoonal changes 8 Sea level rise Floodings, surges and Vertical cyclones land Salinization motion Tides and coastal morphology Sedimentation Bangladesh Land use (agriculture, shrimp farming, reservoir construction) Tidal river management Assessment of SLR (~6 mm/y) and Coastal embankment strategies physical/social implications Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Satellite-geodetic observational system 9 Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Climate variability and ocean heat uptake 1993-2014 2003-2014 10 mm/a low-lying (<10m) Currently, sea level rise is accelerating along many coast of South Asia. A part of this is natural variability; i.e. it will not continue. But what part? Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Sea level Projections 2050 11 Polders in green. Nonlinear (accelerated) sea-level projection based on climate scenarios [ Parris et al. 2012; Vermeer & Rahmstorf , 2009] & reconstructed sea-level trend, 1950– 2012 [ Meyssignac et al ., 2012] & GPS subsidence [ Steckler et al., 2012; courtesy] Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Sea level Projections 2100 2050 12 Polders in green. Nonlinear (accelerated) sea-level projection based on climate scenarios [ Parris et al. 2012; Vermeer & Rahmstorf , 2009] & reconstructed sea-level trend, 1950– 2012 [ Meyssignac et al ., 2012] & GPS subsidence [ Steckler et al., 2012; courtesy] Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Sea level Projections 2050 13 Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Relative sea level and its measurement 2050 14 Land subsidence is as important as sea level rise. Long-term monitoring (vertical control, tide gauge, geodetic network) very important! Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Relative sea level and its measurement Bangladesh is a polder country, strong tides and morphology changes. 2050 Long-term terrestrial monitoring along the coast is difficult and expensive. 15 Coastal embankment improvement project. Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Relative sea level and its measurement Bangladesh is a polder country, strong tides and morphology changes. 2050 Long-term terrestrial monitoring along the coast is difficult and expensive. Band-Aid: Integrate satellite data into terrestrial monitoring systems! 16 Coastal embankment improvement project. Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Regional sea level rise 1st project meeting, Dhaka 2014 17 Tide gauge station installed by Band-Aid Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Connecting satellite and tide gauge measurements S. Calmant (IRD) 18 Measuring sea level with a GPS float for calibrating satellite measurements Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU

Band-Aid Project – Sustainable Research • Close cooperation with local partners (IWM, others 19 • Capacity building (e.g. training workshop 8/2015) • Seek to engage in long-term collaboration Project Band-Aid, 26 June 2016, UNU