Climateproofing the Future of Resources, Ports and Supply Chains. What Africa Could Learn From South Pacific Climate Change Resilience! JACK DYER University of Tasmania Adaptation Futures 2018 Conference, Cape Town Supervisors Dr Oanh Nguyen, Hossein Enshaei
• Risk Identification OVERVIEW • Impact Costs • CONSTRAINTS TO ADAPTATION • CLIMATEPROOFING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES • Psychology • Ecological Capital Theory • Financing • OPPORTUNITIES • LESSONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA
Prioritising Climate Change Risks For A Pacific Supply Chain Cook Islands MSC Stakeholder LR Risk Perceptions None Other: king tides, erosion, algal bloom, sea surge, iceberg melting Coral bleaching/Changes in salinity Species migration/biodiversity Soil sedimentation/composition Wave Energy 1 Changes in Currents Temperature/Humidity Increase Precipitation SLR Wind velocity 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Prioritising Climate Change Risks For A Pacific Supply Chain Cook Islands MSC Stakeholder SR Risk Perceptions None Other -Volcano Tsunami Storm/Superstorm/Storm surge Landslide Heatwave 1 Gale Flood Earthquake Drought Cyclone Bushfire 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1900 1903 1906 Cook Islands Historic Climate Change Risks 1900-2015 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 Frequency 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Figure 6.2: Direct, Indirect and Intangible Climate Change Costs For a Pacific MSC…. DIRECT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT COSTS Physical Damage Preparation Service Costs Evacuation Technology Costs Relocation Information INDIRECT IMPACT COSTS Labour Communication Economy Opportunity cost Health Revenue/Profits Trade Property values Safety Operation Agriculture Competitors Security Production Foreign Direct Investment Other supply chains Clean up Productivity Consumption Depreciation Maintenance Adaptation Savings/Investment Amortisation Reputational INTANGIBLE: • Loss of Life • Ecosystem Damage • Biodiversity Loss • Extinction • Externalities • Supply Chain System Collapse Interest Foreign Exchange Balance of Payments Remittances Trade Diversion Inventory Contingency Rerouting Threshold Exports/Imports Asset relocation Administrative Elevation Marketing/Publicity Mitigation Capital Ecological Rehabilitation Shipping Migration Transport Asset replacement Logistics Current/Future Research Customs Charter Fuel Legal/Liability Consumption Finance Dredging Port throughput Navigation Cargo loading/unloading Storage Transaction
MSC’ Stakeholder Constraints to Climate Change Adaptation 6.1: Geophysical/Environmental 6.2: Information/Research 6.3: Communication 6.4: Labour/Migration 6.5: Land 6.6: Financial/Funding 6.7: Commercial: Fixed/Variable costs 6.8: Legal/Policy 6.9: Psychological 6.10: Political 6.11: Equipment/Resources 6.12: Technical/Technological 6.13: Lack of Coordination 6.14: Lack of Other Stakeholder Cooperation 6.15: Education/Training 6.16: Planning/zoning 6.17: Transport 6.18: Uncertainty of climate change projections 6.19: Other- Leadership 6.20: None 2% 2% 3% 10% 3% 4% 12% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 1% 4% 6% 11% 6% 3% 2% 2%
MSC’ Climateproofing Stakeholder Adaptation Strategies 3% 2% 2% 4% 7% 9% 7% 6% 8% 6% 4% 6% 4% 7% 9% 2% 4% 4% 5% 2% 7.1: Natural Engineering/Ecological Rehabilitation. 7.2: Increasing Environmental Sustainability/Mitigation. 7.3: Physical Engineering – Climateproofing. 7.4: New Equipment and other assets. 7.5: Facility Elevation. 7.6: Retreat-Surrender/Migration 7.7: Information. 7.8: Training. 7.9: Communication. 7.10: Marketing/Income Source Diversification. 7.11: Increasing Flexibility. 7.12: Legislation and reviewed policy/planning. 7.13: Taxes, subsidies, fines/other financial incentives. 7.14: Infrastructure/Technical Standards. 7.15: Risk Monitoring/Management 7.16: Increased Stakeholder Cooperation 7.17: Increased Stakeholder Information Sharing. 7.18: Technology 7.19: Other – Psychology/Indigenous Knowledge/Leadership 7:20: None
CLIMATEPROOFING SOLUTIONS -Psychology • • Factors Clarifying Stakeholder Factors Affecting Stakeholder Successful Reluctance to Prioritise Climate Change. Survival/Recovery • Adaptation. • Access to capital/finance – or awareness • Adapting to opportunity not business as of options. usual recovery. • Asymmetrical information/climate • Competitors versus collaboration – impact change uncertainty. costs of competitors versus own. • Lack of concern. • Ecosystem protection. • Lack of incentive/legal uncertainty. • Extent of aid/reserves/support/flexibility. • No investment/information criteria. • Extent of organisational loss, reputation, • Other priorities – finance, risks, business relocation costs. operations. • Extent to which businesses/stakeholders • Perceived relevance. have experience, overcome past-existing • Risk ambiguity. impacts. • • Scepticism. Event specific impacts/location. • Timing. • • Uncertain short run profitability and PROACTIVE RISK EXPECTATIONS THEORY benefits. • Uncertainty over cost effective, sustainable adaptation responses. • Unknown inaction, maladaptation and opportunity costs.
A Pacific Maritime Ecosystem/Pacific MSC’ Resources Photosynthesis Sun/Climate Greenhouse Gas mitigation sink/Respiration Connection to Maritime Supply Chain SKY Birds LAND Amphibians OCEAN Humans Sharks/Rays Mammals Reptiles Squid Crabs Eels Fish Crustaceans Trochus Oysters/Clams/Molluscs Echinoderms Krill Worms Invertebrates Coral/polyps Zooplankton Phytoplankton seaweed/plants
CLIMATEPROOFING SOLUTIONS -FINANCIAL • Physical Indicators Measuring the Extent • Physical Indicators Measuring the Extent to Which an Investment is to Which an Investment is Climateproofed. Climateproofed. • Development of a Business Continuity • Business Awareness over climateproofing Plan. resilience. • Extent of Mitigation/Adaptation • Change in Asset Performance. Investment. • Change in Conditional Probability of Asset • Extent of Globalisation, Asset Failure/Asset Resilience. Interdependency and Supply Chain • Change in communication, financial, Exposure. information, physical, psychological • Future Earning Power. exposure and leadership. • Liability. • Change in Percentage of Assets Exposed. • Projected Risk/Vulnerability – Long • Change in Risk Perception/People Run/Short Run. trained. • Recovery time Changes. • Competitors. • Resources Allocated/Reserves. • Coordination/Cooperation with other • Resource Sustainability. stakeholders. • Stakeholder Reactions • Demand/Supply/Market Changes. • /Reputation/ Requirements.
CLIMATEPROOFING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA • I: Information and Observation • VI: Increasing Supply – , Integrated Coastal Zone Management -Ecosystem/ Tanks, • II: Education and Training Maximising Storage and Attention • III: Monitoring, Psychology and Community • Increase water retaining vegetation, Support afforestation and tanks to capture rain from any • A: Prompting Stakeholders to Monitor tar/concrete/non penetrating service. Install restrictions – financial and non material tanks on all government and major edifices for rewards/prizes to encourage community storage. Provide price incentives and import monitoring of proposed solutions and tanks/pipes etc from other provinces when discourage wastage. Involve community possible. consultation • IV: Reducing Demand: Metering, prices - • VII: Water Conservation and Recycling financial, psychological disincentives. • Install grey water systems • Consider core users of water • VIII: Desalinisation • V: Countering Leaks – include smart monitors and check core distribution/storage/transfer • IX: Importing/Diverting from Areas of Surplus points • X: (Non South Pacific – Iceberg Transportation)
CLIMATEPROOFING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA
ARE YOU PREPARED? Figure 6.1: Risk Event Disruption, Impact Cost Phases for a Pacific MSC • Ecosystem? • Infrastructure? • Resources/Products? • Assets/Equipment? Temporary • Human/Psychology? • Financial Reserves? Phases - - - - Mitigation- - - - Prediction/Anticipation- - - - - Disruption- - - - - • Information? • Communication? • Other Stakeholders? Opportunity - - - - - - Adaptation- - - - - - Recovery - - - - - - Evacuation/Relocation- - - - Permanent
Climateproofing Supply Chain Opportunities. • Aid/ FDI/Remittances. • Aquaculture, aquaponics. • Climateproofing Infrastructure and equipment investment. • Credits for mitigation and adaptation, venture capital and incentives. • Export/Import power. • Experience, Psychology and Training. • Green Economy – climate bonds, emissions credits. • Localisation rather than globalisation. • Pacific Ecological Capital and real estate. • Reputation and publicity. • Reserves. • Technology. • Trade diversion, continuation and creation into new markets. • Traditional crafts, resources, products and techniques. • The Ecological Capital Theory of Climate Change Risk Management
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