Climate Outlook for Summer 2020 over KOREA SEO Taegun, KIM - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Outlook for Summer 2020 over KOREA SEO Taegun, KIM Samyoung, KIM Hyeonjeong, and LEE Hyunsoo Climate Prediction Division FOCRAII, 7 May 2020

ENSO condition and prediction Model Predictions of ENSO from Apr. 2020 Weekly(4.19.~25.) SST anomaly over Niño3.4 ▶ Recently, the weekly SST anomaly over Nino3.4 region shows +0.7 ℃ ▶ F orecast model predict ENSO-neutral is likely to continue this summer.

500hPa GPH (GloSea5. 4.20) Aug June July ▶ June. The Subtropical high will be stronger than normal, and it’s western edge is expected to extend westward than normal. Positive anomaly is predicted over the northwest of Lake Baikal. ▶ July & Aug. The Subtropical high will expands northwest than normal

850hPa Wind Anomaly (GloSea5, 4.20.) JJA ▶ JJA(summer) - Anti-cyclonic anomaly over the sea east of Philippines. - Cyclonic anomaly over the East of Korea. C AC June July Aug C C AC C C AC AC AC

Ensemble prediction (GloSea5, 4.20.) JJA Ensemble mean for 2m temperature June July Aug. JJA Ensemble mean for precipitation ratio June July Aug.

Western North Pacific-East Asian Summer Monsoon(GloSea5) WNPSM Index U850 JJA 850hpa wind Anomaly [5-15N, 100-130E] - [20-30N, 110-140E] WNPSM_2 WNPSM_1 ( Wang and Fan, 1999) ▶ East Asian Summer Monsoon in WNP is weaker than normal in summer

WNP Subtropical High Index(850hPa) WNPSH Index H850 [15-25N, 115-150E] (Wang et al., 2013) ▶ Western North Pacific Subtropical High(WNPSH) is stronger than normal but expands westward in early summer

MME Prediction (WMO LC) Probability of 2m-temperature(JJA) Ensemble mean for 2m temperature June July Aug. Ensemble mean for precipitation ratio Probability of precipitation (JJA) July June Aug.

Summary ▣ ENSO is expected to be neutral during the coming this summer ▣ Summer Monsoon - Westward expansion of WNPSH will be stronger than normal in early summer. - The influence of Summer Monsoon is expected to be weaker than normal over Korea ▣ 2020 Summer outlook - Temperatures will be higher than normal , and precipitation will be near or below normal over Korea Temperature Precipitation Below Normal Near normal Above normal Below Normal Near normal Above normal Summer 20 30 50 40 40 20

Thank you !!

500hPa GPH (WMO LC MME) JJA June Aug. July Positive anomaly is located near of Korea. More than 60% positive anomaly expected during this summer(Jun 74%, Jul 62%, Aug 60%)

Trend of Observed Temperature Trend of Mean Temperature over R. of Korea June 1.3 ℃ / 47yr July 1.0 ℃ / 47yr Aug. 1.0 ℃ / 46yr ▶ The temperature of Korea has increasing trend for each month of summer ▶ Recently, the temperature rise in June is large

Snow cover 2017/18 년 2020. 3. 2018/19 년 Snow cover anomaly Snow depth anomaly ○ The snow cover in Tibetan has been more than 2019/20 년 normal since late fall last year ( Similar to 2009 ) ⇒ delayed development of Tibetan anticyclone Snow cover anomaly in Tibetan