地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau 澳 澳 澳 澳 門 門 門 門 地 地 地 地 球 球 球 球 物 物 物 物 理 理 理 理 暨 暨 暨 暨 氣 氣 氣 氣 象 象 象 象 局 局 局 局 Macao meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Climate change in Macao and Climate change in Macao and Climate change in Macao and Climate change in Macao and projections for the 21st century projections for the 21st century projections for the 21st century projections for the 21st century Tang Tang Iu Tang Iu Tang Iu Man, Chan Cheng Iu Man, Chan Cheng Man, Chan Cheng Hou Man, Chan Cheng Hou Hou, Fong Hou, Fong , Fong Soi , Fong Soi Soi Kun, Soi Kun, Kun, Kun, Leong Ka Cheng, Wang Anyu Leong Ka Cheng, Wang Leong Ka Cheng, Wang Leong Ka Cheng, Wang Anyu Anyu, Wu Anyu, Wu , Wu Chisheng , Wu Chisheng Chisheng, Wang Ting, Liu Chisheng, Wang Ting, Liu , Wang Ting, Liu Ji , Wang Ting, Liu Ji Ji Ji Second International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC2009) Second International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC2009) Second International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC2009) Second International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC2009) 6-9 October 2009 in Hong Kong 6-9 October 2009 in Hong Kong 9 October 2009 in Hong Kong 9 October 2009 in Hong Kong
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Outline Outline � Introduction � Result � Summary
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Outline Outline � Introduction � Result � Summary
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Introduction Introduction Description of the field site Colina da Guia Colina da Penha Macao SAR Fortaleza do Monte do Monte SMG (Taipa Grande)
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Introduction Introduction Description of the data 1901~2007 daily average temperature � � Site transference 1903~1904 Colina da Penha � � � � Colina da Guia 1. May, 1966 Colina da Guia � � Fortaleza do Monte � � 2. Aug., 1996 Fortaleza do Monte � Aug., 1996 Fortaleza do Monte � � Taipa Grande � Taipa Grande � � � � 3. Difference of Monitoring Schedule � 1901~1920s, 5 times per day � � 04 、 � � 、 10 、 、 13 、 、 16 、 、 20 1. 、 、 、 、 、 、 、 、 o’clock 1920s ~ 1950s, 3 times per day � � 09 、 � � 、 15 、 、 21 o’clock 2. 、 、 、 、 1950s ~ hourly data 3.
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Introduction Introduction Description of the data � Regression method is used to establish the relationship between the daily average temperature (1952 to 2000) and other elements ( 3 or 5 times per day record, max. and min . temperature). Using this equation to estimate the daily average temperature (before 1952) from 3 or 5 times per day record, max. and min temperature. times per day record, max. and min temperature. � Use regression equation between H.K. and Macao data to verify the data or missing value. � After analyzing the curve of interannual variability of temperature difference between HK and Macao. The difference from 0.19 drop to 0.15 in first site transference, but no significant change during other site transferences
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Introduction Introduction Wavelet transform � The continuous wavelet transform of a discrete sequence x n is defined as the convolution of x n with a scaled and translated version of � ( � ): version of � 0 ( � ): Source: Torrence, C. and Gilbert P.C., A practical guide to wavelet analysis, 1998
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Introduction Introduction Wavelet transform � Morlet wavelet, consisting of a plane wave modulated by a Gaussian: � where � 0 is the nondimensional frequency, here taken to be 6 , this gives a value of � =1.03s , where � is the Fourier period. Source: Torrence, C. and Gilbert P.C., A practical guide to wavelet analysis, 1998
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Introduction Introduction 20C3M (1850/1870~1999/2000) � � � � 18 models A2 High emission (2001~2100) � � 11 models � � A1B Medium(2001~2100) � � � � 17 models B1 Low(2001~2100) � � � 14 models � Elements (monthly average temperature and precipitation) The spatial resolution and simulated period is difference between those models
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Introduction Introduction 21 st projection
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Introduction Introduction 21 st projection South China region 1 (SC1) � � � � (20~26N, 108~118E) � 20C3M monthly data � � (1901~2000)annual 、 � � 、 seasonal 、 、 � A2, A1B, B1 monthly data � � (2001~2100) annual 、 � � 、 seasonal 、 、
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Introduction Introduction 21 st projection � Methodology =average of 17 Southern China stations (1971 ~2000) =simulated average of 20C3M in Southern China =A2/A1B/B1 21st anomaly projection =A2/A1B/B1 21st anomaly projection (base on 1971 to 2000 average) =anomaly projection in Southern China (base on 1971 to 2000 average) � Y macao =A* � X sc + B A,B, are the parameters of linear regression (1971 to 2000)
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Outline Outline � Introduction � Result: Climate Change in Macao � Summary
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Result Result Annual mean surface temperature trend 1 0.066 ℃ ℃ ℃ ℃ /10a 0 0 -1 Cold period 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Thin line indicates time series of anomaly of annual mean surface temperature (1901~2007). Thick line represents 41 points local weighted average.
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Result Result Wavelet spectrum for annual mean surface temperature 2-5 yr band 60-70 yr band The wavelet spectrum for Macao annual mean surface temperature time series using the Morlet wavelet (left). Cross-hatched regions on either end indicate the “cone of influence”, where edge effects become important. The thick contour encloses regions of greater than 90% confidence for a red-noise process; The thick solid line is the global wavelet spectrum for Macao Temperature (right). The dashed line is the 90% confidence level for the global wavelet spectrum.
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Result Result Wavelet spectrum for annual mean surface temperature 0.13 0.065 0 1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2001 Scale-average wavelet power over the 2-5 yr band for the Macao annual mean surface temperature (solid). The thin dashed line is the 90% confidence level for Macao annual mean surface temperature.
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Result Result Annual total precipitation Trend 47mm/10a 1200 800 400 0 -400 -800 -1200 1907 1927 1947 1967 1987 2007 Thin line indicates time series of anomaly of annual total precipitation. Thick line represents 41 points local weighted average.
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Result Result Wavelet spectrum for annual total precipitation 2-5 yr band 11-15 yr band The wavelet spectrum for Macao annual total precipitation time series using the Morlet wavelet (left). Cross-hatched regions on either end indicate the “cone of influence”, where edge effects become important. The thick contour encloses regions of greater than 90% confidence for a red-noise process; The thick solid line is the global wavelet spectrum for Macao precipitation (right). The dashed line is the 90% confidence level for the global wavelet spectrum.
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Result Result Return Period of Extreme Case using Gumbel method The Return Period of Max. daily min. temperature in 20 th Century 30.5 1901~1930 ℃ ) perature( ℃ ℃ ℃ 30 1941~1970 29.5 29.5 Max. daily min. tempe 1978~2007 1978~2007 29 28.5 The return period(the night over 29 ℃ ℃ ) is ℃ ℃ 28 from 1 per 20 yr drop to 1 per 5 yr 27.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Yr
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Result Result Return Period of Extreme Case using Gumbel method The Return Period of Min. daily min. temperature in 20 th Century 6 ℃ ) rature ( ℃ The Return Period of Extreme ℃ ℃ 1901~1930 low temp. (2 ℃ ℃ ℃ ) from 1 per 12 yr ℃ 5 become to 1 per 30 yr 1941~1970 Min. daily min. tempera 4 4 1978~2007 3 2 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Yr
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Outline Outline � Introduction � Result: Projection for 21 st Century � Summary
地球物理暨氣象局 Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Result Result Macao vs SC1 SC1 annual temperature Macao Vs SC1 Data 1951~2007 The relationship in last 30 yr is better than that in last 50 yr in last 50 yr Macao annual Macao vs SC1 temperature 1971~2007 Y=0.968x+0.024 R 2 =0.768 √ √ √ √
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