Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Climate Change and Water Resources Across the Great Lakes Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P .E. drew.gronewold@noaa.gov Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan October 2016 1 / 34
Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Outline Introduction 1 2 / 34
Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Outline Introduction 1 Climate change and impacts on water resources 2 2 / 34
Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Outline Introduction 1 Climate change and impacts on water resources 2 Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment 3 2 / 34
Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Outline Introduction 1 Climate change and impacts on water resources 2 Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment 3 Concluding remarks 4 2 / 34
Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Outline Introduction 1 Climate change and impacts on water resources 2 Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment 3 Concluding remarks 4 3 / 34
Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Name Country Surface area Volume (km 2 ) (mi 2 ) (km 3 ) (mi 3 ) Michigan–Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2,750 660 Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700 Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2,236 536 Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2,090 500 Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9,930 489 117 Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9,094 283 68 Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1,639 393 Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth’s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters. From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change . 6 / 34
Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Name Country Surface area Volume (km 2 ) (mi 2 ) (km 3 ) (mi 3 ) Michigan–Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2,750 660 Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700 Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2,236 536 Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2,090 500 Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9,930 489 117 Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9,094 283 68 Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1,639 393 Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth’s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters. From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change . 7 / 34
Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions U.S. Great Lakes Coastline Comparison PACIFIC = 1300 Miles of Lake Coastline Lake Superior 1250 Lake Michigan 1640 Lake Huron 840 Lake Erie 470 Lake Ontario 330 ATLANTIC = 2170 TOTAL 4530 GULF OF MEXICO = 1630 N D A T M O S P H E I C A I C R N E A D A C O M I N L S I GLERL N A T R O I A T N A T I O N U E Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory . . S D C R P E A M M E R T M E N O T F O C *All numbers rounded to the nearest 10 miles. Source: The Coastline of the United States. U.S. Dept. ALASKA/HAWAII = 6330 of Commerce, NOAA, NOAA/PA 71046 (Rev. 1975). From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change . 9 / 34
3312 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E V OLUME 14 F IG . 2. Location of the 26 selected river basins. The nine dark-shaded basins form the primary group, and the light-shaded basins form the secondary group.
3312 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E V OLUME 14 F IG . 2. Location of the 26 selected river basins. The nine dark-shaded basins form the primary group, and the light-shaded basins form the secondary group.
3243 15 N OVEMBER 2002 M A U R E R E T A L . F IG . 3. Comparison of routed simulated runoff (dashed lines) with observed (or naturalized) streamflows (solid lines). Ordinate values are runoff in m 3 s � 1 , abcissa is a 10-yr period, the beginning of which varies by basin, depending on observed flow availability. Shaded areas in center panel are the contributing regions to each identified point.
3243 15 N OVEMBER 2002 M A U R E R E T A L . F IG . 3. Comparison of routed simulated runoff (dashed lines) with observed (or naturalized) streamflows (solid lines). Ordinate values are runoff in m 3 s � 1 , abcissa is a 10-yr period, the beginning of which varies by basin, depending on observed flow availability. Shaded areas in center panel are the contributing regions to each identified point.
Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Outline Introduction 1 Climate change and impacts on water resources 2 Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment 3 Concluding remarks 4 11/ 34
Climatic Change (2013) 120:697–711 701 185 Construction of compensating works (approx.) Lake Superior 184 183 Lake Michigan and Huron 178 177 176 Lake Erie 175 174 173 Water surface elevation (meters) Construction of Moses−Saunders Dam (approx.) Lake Ontario 76 75 74 Gauge at The Battery, New York 1 0 −1 Gauge at San Diego, California 1 0 −1 Gauge at Anchorage, Alaska 1 0 −1 Gauge at Dublin, Ireland 1 0 −1 Gauge at mouth of Rangoon River, Myanmar 1 0 −1 1860 1860 1880 1880 1900 1900 1920 1920 1940 1940 1960 1960 1980 1980 2000 2000 2020 Year
From: Gronewold & Stow (2014), Science See also: Sellinger, Stow, Lamon, and Qian (2007), ES&T
VOL. 96 • NO. 6 • 1 APR 2015 Earth & Space Science News GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS SURGE Suite of Software Analyzes Data on the Sphere Dawn Spacecraft Orbits Dwarf Planet Ceres The Social Contract Between Science and Society
HYDROMETEOROLOGY UNPRECEDENTED SEASONAL WATER LEVEL DYNAMICS ON ONE OF THE EARTH’S LARGEST LAKES BY A NDREW D. G RONEWOLD AND C RAIG A. S TOW T he North American Great Lakes (Fig. 1) contain month period. More specifically, the water level rose roughly 20% of the Earth’s unfrozen fresh sur- 0.28 m between February and March of that period. face water and cover a massive area (Lake Supe- Only twice have water levels risen more between rior alone is the largest unfrozen freshwater surface February and March (0.31 m in both 1976 and 1985). on the planet). Water levels on the Great Lakes have Furthermore, the water level between April and May been recorded continuously for more than 150 years, 2011 rose 0.26 m. Only twice have water levels risen representing one of the longest sets of direct hydro- more between April and May (0.27 m in 1943 and climate measurements. This dataset, synthesized by 0.30 m in 1947). In the 2012 water year, however, the Quinn (1981) and Lenters (2001), among many others, seasonal water level cycle on Lake Erie experienced a indicates that water levels on each of the Great Lakes remarkable shift (as opposed to the 2011 water-year follow a strong seasonal pattern closely linked with amplification) in the historical average seasonal the timing and magnitude of the major components pattern. From November to December 2011, for ex- of the regional water budget, with relatively low water ample, the monthly average water level on Lake Erie levels in the winter months, rising water levels in the rose 0.19 m (Fig. 1), the second-highest increase for spring, and decreasing water levels in the late summer that time period in recorded history (the highest was and early fall. Water-level measurements on Lake Erie 0.20 m in 1927). Water levels then decreased continu- during the 2011 and 2012 water years (October 2010 through September 2011, and October 2011 through September 2012, respectively), however, reflect dra- matic and unexpected changes in the seasonal water- level cycle and in the Great Lakes regional water budget. In the 2011 water year, monthly average water levels on Lake Erie rose more than 0.8 m from February to June, an unprecedented amplifica- tion of the historical seasonal pattern (Fig. 1). Never before had water levels on Lake Erie risen as much during a four- AFFILIATIONS: G RONEWOLD AND S TOW —NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan F IG . 1. Satellite image of (left) the North American CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: A. D. Gronewold, NOAA, Laurentian Great Lakes and (right) seasonal patterns Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, in monthly average Lake Erie water levels. Data from MI 48108 1918 to 2012 are based on a network of gauges around E-mail: drew.gronewold@noaa.gov Lake Erie, and data from 1860 to 1917 (before a net- DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00194.1 work was established) are based on a “master gauge.” (Image: NASA and NOAA CoastWatch) | 15 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JANUARY 2014
White Shoal Lighthouse: Lake Michigan Photo courtesy Dick Moehl (Lighthouse Keepers Association)
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