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Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions Climate Change and Water Resources Across the Great Lakes Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P .E. drew.gronewold@noaa.gov Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory National Oceanic and

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SLIDE 1 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Climate Change and Water Resources Across the Great Lakes Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P .E.

drew.gronewold@noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan

October 2016

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SLIDE 2 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Outline

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Introduction

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SLIDE 3 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Outline

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Introduction

2

Climate change and impacts on water resources

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SLIDE 4 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Outline

1

Introduction

2

Climate change and impacts on water resources

3

Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment

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SLIDE 5 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Outline

1

Introduction

2

Climate change and impacts on water resources

3

Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment

4

Concluding remarks

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SLIDE 6 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Outline

1

Introduction

2

Climate change and impacts on water resources

3

Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment

4

Concluding remarks

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SLIDE 9 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Name Country Surface area Volume (km2) (mi2) (km3) (mi3) Michigan–Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2,750 660 Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700 Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2,236 536 Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2,090 500 Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9,930 489 117 Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9,094 283 68 Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1,639 393

Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth’s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters.

From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change. 6 / 34
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SLIDE 10 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Name Country Surface area Volume (km2) (mi2) (km3) (mi3) Michigan–Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2,750 660 Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700 Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2,236 536 Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2,090 500 Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9,930 489 117 Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9,094 283 68 Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1,639 393

Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth’s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters.

From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change. 7 / 34
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SLIDE 12 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions U.S. Great Lakes Coastline Comparison Miles of Lake Coastline Lake Superior 1250 Lake Michigan 1640 Lake Huron 840 Lake Erie 470 Lake Ontario 330 TOTAL 4530 Source: The Coastline of the United States. U.S. Dept.
  • f Commerce, NOAA, NOAA/PA 71046 (Rev. 1975).
*All numbers rounded to the nearest 10 miles. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N U . S . D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory GLERL ATLANTIC = 2170 GULF OF MEXICO = 1630 PACIFIC = 1300 ALASKA/HAWAII = 6330 From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change. 9 / 34
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SLIDE 13

3312

VOLUME 14 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E

  • FIG. 2. Location of the 26 selected river basins. The nine dark-shaded basins form the primary group, and the light-shaded basins form

the secondary group.

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SLIDE 14

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VOLUME 14 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E

  • FIG. 2. Location of the 26 selected river basins. The nine dark-shaded basins form the primary group, and the light-shaded basins form

the secondary group.

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SLIDE 15

15 NOVEMBER 2002

3243

M A U R E R E T A L .

  • FIG. 3. Comparison of routed simulated runoff (dashed lines) with observed (or naturalized) streamflows (solid

lines). Ordinate values are runoff in m3 s1, abcissa is a 10-yr period, the beginning of which varies by basin, depending on observed flow availability. Shaded areas in center panel are the contributing regions to each identified point.

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SLIDE 16

15 NOVEMBER 2002

3243

M A U R E R E T A L .

  • FIG. 3. Comparison of routed simulated runoff (dashed lines) with observed (or naturalized) streamflows (solid

lines). Ordinate values are runoff in m3 s1, abcissa is a 10-yr period, the beginning of which varies by basin, depending on observed flow availability. Shaded areas in center panel are the contributing regions to each identified point.

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SLIDE 17 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Outline

1

Introduction

2

Climate change and impacts on water resources

3

Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment

4

Concluding remarks

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SLIDE 20

Climatic Change (2013) 120:697–711 701

Construction of compensating works (approx.)

Lake Superior

183 184 185 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year Water surface elevation (meters) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie

173 174 175 176 177 178 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Construction of Moses−Saunders Dam (approx.) 74 75 76

Lake Ontario Gauge at The Battery, New York

−1 1

Gauge at San Diego, California

−1 1

Gauge at Anchorage, Alaska

−1 1

Gauge at Dublin, Ireland

−1 1

Gauge at mouth of Rangoon River, Myanmar

−1 1
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SLIDE 23 From: Gronewold & Stow (2014), Science See also: Sellinger, Stow, Lamon, and Qian (2007), ES&T
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SLIDE 24

Suite of Software Analyzes Data on the Sphere Dawn Spacecraft Orbits Dwarf Planet Ceres The Social Contract Between Science and Society

  • VOL. 96 • NO. 6 • 1 APR 2015

Earth & Space Science News

GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS SURGE

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SLIDE 27

JANUARY 2014 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

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HYDROMETEOROLOGY UNPRECEDENTED SEASONAL WATER LEVEL DYNAMICS ON ONE OF THE EARTH’S LARGEST LAKES

BY ANDREW D. GRONEWOLD AND CRAIG A. STOW

T

he North American Great Lakes (Fig. 1) contain roughly 20% of the Earth’s unfrozen fresh sur- face water and cover a massive area (Lake Supe- rior alone is the largest unfrozen freshwater surface

  • n the planet). Water levels on the Great Lakes have

been recorded continuously for more than 150 years, representing one of the longest sets of direct hydro- climate measurements. This dataset, synthesized by Quinn (1981) and Lenters (2001), among many others, indicates that water levels on each of the Great Lakes follow a strong seasonal pattern closely linked with the timing and magnitude of the major components

  • f the regional water budget, with relatively low water

levels in the winter months, rising water levels in the spring, and decreasing water levels in the late summer and early fall. Water-level measurements on Lake Erie during the 2011 and 2012 water years (October 2010 through September 2011, and October 2011 through September 2012, respectively), however, reflect dra- matic and unexpected changes in the seasonal water- level cycle and in the Great Lakes regional water budget. In the 2011 water year, monthly average water levels

  • n Lake Erie rose more than

0.8 m from February to June, an unprecedented amplifica- tion of the historical seasonal pattern (Fig. 1). Never before had water levels on Lake Erie risen as much during a four- month period. More specifically, the water level rose 0.28 m between February and March of that period. Only twice have water levels risen more between February and March (0.31 m in both 1976 and 1985). Furthermore, the water level between April and May 2011 rose 0.26 m. Only twice have water levels risen more between April and May (0.27 m in 1943 and 0.30 m in 1947). In the 2012 water year, however, the seasonal water level cycle on Lake Erie experienced a remarkable shift (as opposed to the 2011 water-year amplification) in the historical average seasonal

  • pattern. From November to December 2011, for ex-

ample, the monthly average water level on Lake Erie rose 0.19 m (Fig. 1), the second-highest increase for that time period in recorded history (the highest was 0.20 m in 1927). Water levels then decreased continu-

AFFILIATIONS: GRONEWOLD AND STOW—NOAA, Great Lakes

Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: A. D. Gronewold, NOAA,

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI 48108 E-mail: drew.gronewold@noaa.gov DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00194.1

  • FIG. 1. Satellite image of (left) the North American

Laurentian Great Lakes and (right) seasonal patterns in monthly average Lake Erie water levels. Data from 1918 to 2012 are based on a network of gauges around Lake Erie, and data from 1860 to 1917 (before a net- work was established) are based on a “master gauge.” (Image: NASA and NOAA CoastWatch)

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SLIDE 33 White Shoal Lighthouse: Lake Michigan Photo courtesy Dick Moehl (Lighthouse Keepers Association)
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SLIDE 34 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Outline

1

Introduction

2

Climate change and impacts on water resources

3

Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment

4

Concluding remarks

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SLIDE 35
  • Fig. 10. Average Great Lakes levels depend on the balance between precipitation and
corresponding runoff in the Great Lakes Basin and evaporation and outflow. The SRES B1 lower emissions scenario with less warming (not shown) projects little change in lake levels over the coming century. Under the SRES A1fi higher emissions scenario (shown here), decreases on the order of 0.5 up to nearly 2.0 ft are projected towards the end of the century.
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SLIDE 39 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Outline

1

Introduction

2

Climate change and impacts on water resources

3

Models, forecasting, uncertainty, and skill assessment

4

Concluding remarks

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SLIDE 40 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions 28/ 34
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SLIDE 41 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Understanding regional-scale processes and impacts

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SLIDE 42 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Understanding regional-scale processes and impacts Projections and simulations: “predict” or offer insight?

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SLIDE 43 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Understanding regional-scale processes and impacts Projections and simulations: “predict” or offer insight? Can models replace observations?

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SLIDE 44 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Understanding regional-scale processes and impacts Projections and simulations: “predict” or offer insight? Can models replace observations? Does data change management decisions?

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SLIDE 45 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Acknowledgements Northwestern Center for Water Research Institute for Sustainability and Energy at Northeastern Kaye LaFond, Joe Smith, Anne Clites, Tim Hunter NOAA, USACE, USGS, Environment Canada, and IJC

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SLIDE 46

References Clites, A. H., Smith, J. P., Hunter, T. S., Gronewold, A. D., 2014a. Visualizing relationships between hydrology, climate, and water level fluctuations on Earth’s largest system of lakes. Journal of Great Lakes Research 40 (3), 807–811. Clites, A. H., Wang, J., Campbell, K. B., Gronewold, A. D., Assel, R. A., Bai, X., Leshkevich, G. A., 2014b. Cold water and high ice cover on Great Lakes in spring 2014. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 95 (34), 305–306. Gronewold, A. D., Anderson, E. J., Lofgren, B. M., Blanken, P. D., Wang, J., Smith, J. P., Hunter, T. S., Lang, G. A., Stow, C. A., Beletsky, D., Bratton, J. F., 2015a. Impact of extreme 2013-2014 winter conditions on Lake Michigan’s fall heat content, surface temperature, and evaporation. Geophysical Research Letters 42 (9), 3364–3370. Gronewold, A. D., Clites, A. H., Bruxer, J., Kompoltowicz, K., Smith, J. P., Hunter, T. S., Wong, C., 2015b. Water levels surge on Great Lakes. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 96 (6), 14–17. Gronewold, A. D., Clites, A. H., Smith, J. P., Hunter, T. S., 2013. A dynamic graphical interface for visualizing projected, measured, and reconstructed surface water elevations on the earth’s largest lakes. Environmental Mod- elling & Software 49, 34–39. Gronewold, A. D., Stow, C. A., 2014a. Unprecedented seasonal water level dynamics on one of the Earth’s largest lakes. Bulletin of the American Me- teorological Society 95 (1), 15–17. Gronewold, A. D., Stow, C. A., 2014b. Water loss from the Great Lakes. Science 343 (6175), 1084–1085. Holman, K. D., Gronewold, A. D., Notaro, M., Zarrin, A., 2012. Improving historical precipitation estimates over the Lake Superior basin. Geophysical Research Letters 39 (3), L03405. Hunter, T. S., Clites, A. H., Campbell, K. B., Gronewold, A. D., 2015. Devel-

  • pment and application of a monthly hydrometeorological database for the

North American Great Lakes - Part I: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and air temperature. Journal of Great Lakes Research 41 (1), 65–77. Lofgren, B. M., Gronewold, A. D., 2013. Reconciling alternative approaches to projecting hydrologic impacts of climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94 (10), ES133—-ES135. Lofgren, B. M., Gronewold, A. D., 2014. Water Resources. In: Winkler, J. A., Andresen, J. A., Hatfield, J. L., Bidwell, D., Brown, D. (Eds.), Climate Change in the Midwest: A Synthesis Report for the National Climate As-

  • sessment. Island Press, Washington, DC, Ch. Water Reso, pp. 224–237.

Smith, J. P., Hunter, T. S., Clites, A. H., Stow, C. A., Slawecki, T., Muhr,

  • G. C., Gronewold, A. D., 2016. An expandable web-based platform for vi-

sually analyzing basin-scale hydro-climate time series data. Environmental Modelling & Software 78, 97–105.

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SLIDE 47 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Climate Change and Water Resources Across the Great Lakes Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P .E.

drew.gronewold@noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan

October 2016

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SLIDE 48 Introduction Challenges Forecasting systems Statute Miles 100 200 150 50 50 Kilometers 100 200 100 300 INDIANA WISCONSIN MICHIGAN ILLINOIS OHIO PENNSYLVANIA NEW YORK MINNESOTA MICHIGAN O N T A R I O LAKE ERIE GEORGIAN BAY L A K E S U P E R I O R L A K E O N T A R I O QUEBEC L A K E M I C H I G A N L A K E H U R O N Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal Nipigon River Detroit Chicago Cleveland Green Bay Milwaukee Sault Ste. Marie Duluth Toronto Welland Canal
  • St. Clair River
Detroit River Buffalo Niagara River O t t a w a R i v e r
  • St. Marys River
Straits of Mackinac Ogoki Diversion Long Lac Diversion Massena Cornwall
  • St. Lawrence
River 6 / 42
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SLIDE 49

Climatic Change (2013) 120:697–711 703

Lake Superior 183 184 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Water surface elevation (meters) 600 1100 600 1100 600 1100 600 1100 Total annual basin−wide precipitation (mm) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie 173 174 175 176 177 178 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 74 75 76 Lake Ontario
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704 Climatic Change (2013) 120:697–711

Lake Superior 183 184 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Water surface elevation (meters) 500 900 500 900 800 1100 500 900 Total annual over−lake evaporation (mm) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie 173 174 175 176 177 178 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 74 75 76 Lake Ontario
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SLIDE 51 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Historical ice cover: seasonal and interannual

Days after Nov. 1 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 SWT (° C) 3 6 9 1980 1990 2000 2010 From: Clites et al. (2014), Eos, transactions of AGU. See also: Van Cleave et al. (2014), L&O. 31/ 34
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SLIDE 52 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Historical water levels: short-term

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SLIDE 53 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Historical water levels: short-term

172 174 176 178 Hurricane Sandy Fort Gratiot (Lake Huron) Buffalo (Lake Erie) Surface water elev. (m, IGLD85) 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 −2 −1 1 2 3 4 The Battery (New York) Surface water elev. (m, MSL) October 2012 November 2012 From: Gronewold et al (2013), Climatic Change 33/ 34
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SLIDE 54 Introduction Climate and water Models Conclusions

Glacial isostatic rebound

From: Mainville and Craymer (2005), GSA Bulletin. 34/ 34