Change of car-dependent lifestyles and its implications on policies - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Change of car-dependent lifestyles and its implications on policies - Focus on young adults - Toshiyuki Yamamoto Nagoya University 1

Outline • Introduction • Comparison among six countries • Three potential factors in Japan • Policy implications 2

Young people’s mobility development in industrialized countries • For decades: in line with the growth of per capita travel – Increasing motorization and car use • More recently: changes in travel behavior – Decreasing car orientation and reduced overall travel – ‘Peak Travel’ 3

Objectives • Identify important common denominators of the development across industrialized countries as well as highlights differences • Identify factors for downward trend in Japan Focus on young adults: • More mobile than any other age group • Shapes future travel demand • More likely to change travel behavior in response to changing conditions 4

Comparison among six countries Kuhnimhof, T., Armoogum, J., Buehler, R., Dargay, J., Denstadli, J.M. and Yamamoto, T. (2012). Men shape a downward trend in car use among young adults – Evidence from six industrialized countries, Transport Reviews, Vol. 32, 761-779. 5

Data • Germany, Great Britain, France, Japan, Norway and USA • 1970s to date • National travel survey data – Nationwide Person Trip Survey for Japan: 41 cities • Young adults: 20 to 29 years old 6

Driving license 100% female 90% male 80% total 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 95/97 95/97 94 08 02 08 09 09 98 09 98 09 95 10 95 10 95 10 95 10 20-29 18-29 17-20 21-29 18-24 25-34 < 20 20-29 16-19 20-29 FR GE GB NO US JP • Decline especially for men 7

Car availability • License holding & vehicle ownership in household 100% female male total 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 81 93 07 76 95-99 05-09 75 95-97 04-06 85 98 05 83 01 08 92 99 05 FR GE GB NO US JP (41 cities) • Decline for men • Increase for women in Japan 8

Modal split 100% public transport 90% 80% on foot 70% bicycle 60% motorcycle 50% 40% car 30% 20% 10% 0% 81 93 07 76 95-99 05-09 75 95-97 04-06 85 98 05 83 01 08 87 99 05 FR GE GB NO US JP (41 cities) • Car dominant in USA • Car share has declined recently except Japan 9

Multimodality • Share of mileage by those with car availability 100% other 90% 80% public 70% transport 60% car 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 81 93 07 76 95-99 05-09 75 95-97 04-06 85 98 05 83 01 08 92 99 05 FR GE GB NO US JP (41 cities) • No multimodality in USA • High multimodality in Japan (partly by survey area) 10

Car mileage 80 Car kilometres per trip maker and day 70 60 US GE 50 FR 40 NO 30 GB 20 JP (41 cities) 10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 • Low in Japan (partly by survey area) • Germany & Great Britain peaked in late 1990s • Decline in 2008 for USA (high fuel price & economic crisis) 11

Car mileage & total mileage by gender 80 non car modes car Kilometres per trip maker and day 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total 81 93 07 76 95-99 05-09 75 95-97 04-06 FR GE GB • Men reduced car mileage more strongly than women • Only German shifted to alternative modes significantly 12

Car mileage & total mileage by gender 80 Kilometers per trip maker and day non car modes car 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total female male total 85 98 05 83 01 08 87 92 05 NO US JP (41 cities) • Gender gap has narrowed significantly except Norway • Car mileage of women continued to grow in France & Japan 13

Possible explanations • Socio-economic changes – Increasing share of receiving tertiary education – Decreasing workforce participation – Increasing age for starting a family – Increasing share of urban population • Factors with possible impacts – Fuel price increases except Japan – Policy measures discouraging driving – Developments in long-distance travel (LCC air & high speed rail) – Psychological factors: environmental awareness and pragmatism in mobility choice – Impact of ICT 14

Conclusions • Access to cars has decreased, particularly for men • Car mileage has also decreased, particularly for men • In France, Japan and USA, decrease in car travel has led to lower overall mileages • In Great Britain and Germany, decrease in car travel was compensated by increased use of alternative modes 15

Three potential factors in Japan Miwa, Y. (2011). Study on change in car ownership behavior of young people, Master thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Nagoya University (in Japanese) 16

Three potential factors and Data Three potential factors (M1F1 Research Institute, 2007) • Convenience of transit at metropolitan areas • Financial constraint • Diversification of hobby Data • Nationwide Person Trip Survey • Family Income and Expenditure Survey • Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activity 17

Household car ownership rates • Household with household head of twenties • Slight variation among surveys, but decreases in this century 18

Rate of household head in twenties 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1987 1992 1999 2005 1989 1994 1999 2004 1991 1996 2001 2006 Nationwide Person Trip Family Income and Survey on Time Use Survey Expenditure Survey and Leisure Survey • Increasing age for starting a family 19

Share of unmarried people living with their parents (20 to 34 years old) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Male 25% Female 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 • Access to cars of parents? 20

Car ownership by region • Lower and decreasing at three major met. areas – Public transit & cost for parking space? 21

Car ownership of multi-person household by disposable income Three major metropolitan areas Sample share Car ownership rate by disposable income 100 1989 90 80 1994 70 -15 60 -15 15-20 50 15-20 1999 20- 40 20- 30 20 2004 10 0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1989 1994 1999 2004 • Not significant decrease 100 Regional urban areas 1989 95 1994 90 -15 -15 15-20 15-20 85 1999 20- 20- 80 2004 75 1989 1994 1999 2004 22 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Car ownership of one-person household by disposable income Three major metropolitan areas Sample share Car ownership rate by disposable income • Decrease even in high income household Regional urban areas 23

Car ownership by rate of out-of-home discretionary activity time on holiday Three major metropolitan areas Sample share Car ownership rate by rate of discretionary activity time 60 1991 50 40 1996 0-10(%) 0-10(%) 30 10-20(%) 10-20(%) 2001 20(%)- 20(%)- 20 10 2006 0 0% 50% 100% • Positive correlation has disappeared 1991 1996 2001 2006 100 Regional urban areas 1991 80 1996 60 0-10(%) 0-10(%) 10-20(%) 10-20(%) 40 2001 20(%)- 20(%)- 20 2006 0 24 1989 1994 1999 2004 0% 50% 100%

Product & service interests ranking for young adults (JAMA, 2009) 20 yrs ago (40s to 50s) 10 yrs ago (20s to 30s) Current college students 1 Fashion 35.7% PC 50.7% PC 62.1% 2 Domestic trip 34.0% Fashion 47.7% Fashion 53.9% 3 Eat out 32.0% Telecom device 39.7% Potable music 50.6% player 4 Book 31.7% Domestic trip 37.3% Telecom device 49.9% 5 Music 31.3% Music 37.0% Domestic trip 44.0% 6 Movie 27.2% Eat out 33.7% Music 43.7% 7 Car 27.0% Overseas trip 32.7% Book 42.9% 8 PC 25.7% Potable music 31.0% Animation/Manga 42.0% player 9 Overseas trip 23.7% Book 31.0% Game 38.4% 10 Audio 20.3% Car 25.3% Eat out 37.6% 17 Car 22.8% 25

Conclusions On three potential factors • Convenience of transit at metropolitan areas – Consistent with data for one-person household • Financial constraint – Not significant • Diversification of hobby – Supported by data 26

Policy implications • We do not know whether – this new generation of travelers maintains their novel travel patterns as they age, or – they simply return to the more auto-oriented mobility styles of their predecessors later in life • Policy measures to encourage them to keep their travel patterns – At starting a family – Car availability without owning: carsharing 27