c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b university of copenhagen Causal inference in neuroimaging Sebastian Weichwald � sweichwald.de @sweichwald Global Excellence Seminar, DRCMR, Hvidovre 2020-01-24
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b La b Ca usality Co penhagen Drawing by Anna-Julia Plichta. Keyword cloud created on scimeter.org. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 2
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Messerli (2012). Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates. New England Journal of Medicine . Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 3
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Messerli (2012). Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates. New England Journal of Medicine . Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 3
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Bobby goes on a cruise to another country.. Messerli (2012). Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates. New England Journal of Medicine . Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 3
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Bobby goes on a cruise to another country.. seeing: ..and reports back that year’s chocolate consumption. Messerli (2012). Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates. New England Journal of Medicine . Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 3
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Bobby goes on a cruise to another country.. seeing: ..and reports back that year’s chocolate consumption. doing: ..and brings enormous amounts of chocolate for a year. Messerli (2012). Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates. New England Journal of Medicine . Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 3
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Bobby goes on a cruise to another country.. seeing: ..and reports back that year’s chocolate consumption. doing: ..and brings enormous amounts of chocolate for a year. � Can we predict # country’s Nobel Laureates? Messerli (2012). Chocolate Consumption, Cognitive Function, and Nobel Laureates. New England Journal of Medicine . Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 3
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b � “Correlation does not imply causation.” Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 4
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b � “Correlation does not imply causation.” seeing vs doing Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 4
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Hippocampal activity in this study was correlated with amygdala activity, supporting the view that the amygdala enhances explicit memory by modulating activity in the hippocampus. amygdala hippocampus explicit memory Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 5
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Hippocampal activity in this study was correlated with amygdala activity, supporting the view that the amygdala enhances explicit memory by modulating activity in the hippocampus. amygdala hippocampus explicit memory Can we enhance explicit memory by amygdala stimulation? Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 5
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Hippocampal activity in this study was correlated with amygdala activity, supporting the view that the amygdala enhances explicit memory by modulating activity in the hippocampus. amygdala hippocampus explicit memory Can we enhance explicit memory by amygdala stimulation? Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 5
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Hippocampal activity in this study was correlated with amygdala activity, supporting the view that the amygdala enhances explicit memory by modulating activity in the hippocampus. h amygdala hippocampus explicit memory Can we enhance explicit memory by amygdala stimulation? Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 5
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b � “Correlation does not imply causation.” seeing vs doing � Causal questions require causal answers. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 6
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b What’s the cause and what’s the effect? Mooij, Janzing, Zscheischler, and Schölkopf (2014). CauseEffectPairs repository at webdav.tuebingen.mpg.de/cause-effect/. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 7
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b What’s the cause and what’s the effect? X (Altitude) → Y (Temperature) Mooij, Janzing, Zscheischler, and Schölkopf (2014). CauseEffectPairs repository at webdav.tuebingen.mpg.de/cause-effect/. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 7
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b What’s the cause and what’s the effect? Mooij, Janzing, Zscheischler, and Schölkopf (2014). CauseEffectPairs repository at webdav.tuebingen.mpg.de/cause-effect/. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 8
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b What’s the cause and what’s the effect? Y (Solar Radiation) → X (Temperature) Mooij, Janzing, Zscheischler, and Schölkopf (2014). CauseEffectPairs repository at webdav.tuebingen.mpg.de/cause-effect/. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 8
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b What’s the cause and what’s the effect? Mooij, Janzing, Zscheischler, and Schölkopf (2014). CauseEffectPairs repository at webdav.tuebingen.mpg.de/cause-effect/. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 9
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b What’s the cause and what’s the effect? X (Age) → Y (Income) Mooij, Janzing, Zscheischler, and Schölkopf (2014). CauseEffectPairs repository at webdav.tuebingen.mpg.de/cause-effect/. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 9
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b � “Correlation does not imply causation.” seeing vs doing � Causal questions require causal answers. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 10
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b � “Correlation does not imply causation.” seeing vs doing � Causal questions require causal answers. � Correlation(s) may tell us something about causation. Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 10
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b � “Correlation does not imply causation.” seeing vs doing � Causal questions require causal answers. � Correlation(s) may tell us something about causation. Causal inference: assumptions & data � causal hypotheses Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 10
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Reichenbach’s principle of common cause (1956) If two variables X and Y are statistically dependent then either Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 11
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Reichenbach’s principle of common cause (1956) If two variables X and Y are statistically dependent then either X Y I Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 11
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Reichenbach’s principle of common cause (1956) If two variables X and Y are statistically dependent then either Z X Y X Y I II Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 11
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Reichenbach’s principle of common cause (1956) If two variables X and Y are statistically dependent then either Z X Y X Y X Y I II III Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 11
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Reichenbach’s principle of common cause (1956) If two variables X and Y are statistically dependent then either Z X Y X Y X Y I II III • every statistical dependence is due to a causal relation Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 11
u n i v e r s i t y o f c o p e n h a g e n c o p e n h a g e n c a u s a l i t y l a b Reichenbach’s principle of common cause (1956) If two variables X and Y are statistically dependent then either Z X Y X Y X Y I II III • every statistical dependence is due to a causal relation • cases I, II, and III can also occur simultaneously Sebastian Weichwald — CI in NI — Slide 11
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