CARS AND REAL ESTATE UCLA Ziman Center June 27, 2017 Taylor - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DRIVERLESS CARS AND REAL ESTATE UCLA Ziman Center June 27, 2017 Taylor Mammen, Managing Director

THE IDEA OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES HAS BEEN AROUND FOR DECADES Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 2

SEVERAL TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS ARE FACILITATING AV DEVELOPMENT TODAY Internet of Things (V2V, V2I Connectivity) E-commerce (Amazon Drones) • • Ubiquitous Internet Electric Cars • • Virtual Reality Processing Capacity • • Signals from GPS satellites are combined with readings from tachometers, altimeters and gyroscopes to provide more accurate positioning Lidar (light detection and ranging) sensors bounce pulses of light off than is possible with GPS alone the surroundings. These are analyzed to identify lane markings and the edges of roads. Radar sensor Video cameras detect traffic lights, read road signs, keep track of the position of other vehicles and look out for pedestrians and obstacles on the road Information from all of the sensors is analyzed by a Ultrasonic sensors may be central computer that used to measure the position manipulates the steering of objects very close to the accelerator and brakes. Its vehicle, such as curbs and Radar sensors monitor the position of other software must understand the other vehicles vehicles nearby. Such sensors are already rules of the road, both formal used in adaptive cruise-control systems and informal. Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 3

AUTOMATION OCCURS ALONG A SPECTRUM Full Self-Driving Automation Vehicle designed to perform all safety-critical functions and monitor road conditions for entire trip. Fully Driver may provide navigation input but is not Autonomous expected to be available for control at any point in the trip. LEVEL 4 Combined Function Automation This level involves automation of at least two primary control functions. For example LEVEL adaptive cruise control in combination with 3 lane centering. Limited Self-Driving Automation LEVEL Vehicle allows driver to cede full control of all 2 safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions. The driver is expected to be available for occasional control. No-Automation Driver is in complete and sole LEVEL control of the primary vehicle 1 controls at all times Function-specific Automation LEVEL Automation involves one or more specific 0 control functions. Examples include Fully Manual electronic stability control or pre-charged brakes. Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 4

MANY FACTORS, FROM DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, DRIVE AV DEVELOPMENT AND ADOPTION Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 5

NO CONSENSUS ON TIMING, BUT AVS COULD IMPACT 10- YEAR UNDERWRITING PRO FORMA… Industry Experts Anticipated "Release Date" of Autonomous Vehicles 12 10 8 Number of Experts 6 4 2 0 2020 2025 2030 Year Released to Public PRIVATE FIRM/RESEARCH INSTITUTION TECH COMPANY AUTOMAKER Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 6

WE MAY ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING ANALOG IMPACTS Already, up to 11 vehicles removed per carsharing vehicle. Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 7

SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS DEPEND ON THE MODEL THAT RESULTS Computer Operated 1) Shared 2) Owned Autonomy Autonomy Asset Owned Asset Shared 3) Owned 4) Shared Dependence Dependence Human Operated Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 8

NUMEROUS POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS: • Parking needs/preferences/requirements, and impacts on land residual values • Consumer spending, household income available for housing • Building and urban design and form • Existing building conversion (or obsolescence?) • Additional urban land availability, and impacts on land values • Winners and losers: urban/suburban, neighborhoods, product types, etc. • What happens to TOD? • e-Commerce and distribution • Major job dislocation • Changes in how people spend their time • Changes in capital markets • Changes in infrastructure financing • Changes in insurance liability Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 9

WHENEVER IT SEEMS FAR- FETCHED… Ziman Center | 6/27/2017 | 10

AUSTIN LA ORLANDO DC 221 W 6th St 11601 Wilshire Blvd 964 Lake Baldwin Ln 7200 Wisconsin Ave Suite 2030 Suite 1650 Suite 100 Suite 1110 Austin, TX 78701 Los Angeles, CA 90025 Orlando, FL 32814 Bethesda, MD 20814 Taylor Mammen Managing Director / Director of Institutional Advisory P: (310) 282-0437 E: TMAMMEN@RCLCO.COM W: RCLCO.COM