Caribbean EVDO & CDMA Roaming Market: Potential Revenue: 2005 – 2010 Jose F. Otero S ignals Telecom Consulting CDMA Roaming Forum Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – April 18, 2005 Prepared for:
About Signals Founded in August 2004 � Headquarters in Miami � Regional Offices � – Buenos Aires, Argentina (December 2004) – Brazil (May 2005) More than 23 associate consultants � Partnerships with consultancies in five countries including � – Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, UK and US A S ervices � – Market Intelligence – Competitive Analysis – Business S trategy IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005 ummit | S IBC’ s Billing S Signals in the Press
Agenda Proj ect S cope � The Caribbean Region � Liberalization Present � Liberalization Positive Developments � CDMA Roaming Potential � – Aruba – Bahamas – Cayman Islands Conclusions � IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Project Scope • Caribbean EVDO Revenues • Caribbean CDMA Roaming Revenues • Target Operators for CDMA Network Deployment • Country Profiles Anguilla Antigua & Barbuda Aruba Bahamas Barbados British Virgin Islands Cayman Islands French Antilles French Guiana Grenada Honduras Netherlands Antilles St. Kitts & Nevis Saint Lucia St. Vincent & the Grenadine Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
The Caribbean Region IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Liberalization Present Asymmetric development � throughout the region – Delayed entrance of competition in the English speaking Caribbean – Young regulatory entities: education is needed! Liberalization is j ust beginning… � – Guyana, Trinidad & Tobago, S uriname, Bahamas, etc. Liberalized Markets � – Regulation impacting Opex/ Capex � Number portability, E911, etc. IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
OECS Commercial Mobile Operations 1Q05 IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Liberalization : Positive Developments Rapid increase of the mobile telephony � subscriber base with most markets surpassing 70% penetration levels; Benefits to consumers � – Improvement in coverage – Improvement in QoS – Introduction of new services – Introduction of new technologies – Diversity of subscription plans Telecom operators’ new paradigm � IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
CDMA Roaming Revenues Caribbean Total CDMA Revenues by Service $140,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $2,575,262 $5,509,650 $8,755,040 $12,541,699 $16,063,392 $19,512,424 EVDO Revenues Canada CDMA Roaming $15,925,092 $15,992,046 $16,127,713 $15,891,334 $15,664,289 $15,364,455 US CDMA Roaming $73,328,832 $78,911,508 $82,994,819 $83,979,680 $90,430,416 $90,490,151 IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Target Operators Main target for deployment of CDMA network � for roaming should be incumbent mobile operators: – Most challenged by the arrival of competition at the hands of pan- Caribbean operators such as Cingular Wireless & Digicel – Lack of large quantities of GS M 850 MHz- enabled handsets limits the ability of these networks of capturing roaming revenues New entrants to mobile arena � – Could use CDMA roaming as a additional “ captive” revenue to speed-up the operator’ s ROI – Could leverage CDMA network t o provide WLL services – ILECs, IS Ps, CATVs IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Aruba Population: 71.218 (July 2004) Area: 193 Km 2 Political Status: Dutch Overseas Dept. Language: Dutch & Papiamento Two operators offering mobile services: SETAR GSM (GSM 900/1800/1900 MHz) and Digicel (GSM 900/1800 MHz). Although Cingular Wireless has not mentioned Aruba on its expansion plans for 2005 the island fits into the pan- Caribbean operator regional strategy. IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Aruba Canada & US provide 68% of all Aruba - Tourism by Region of Origin incoming visitors; 58% of these visitors stay overnight. 99% of all overnight visitors arrive Canada 3% by air with 4,36% being business Caribbean 4% travelers. USA Other Regions 65% 1% Other Europe 1% 13% of visitors originate in countries with GSM at 900/1800 MHz. The South Am erica Netherlands holds the largest share 14% of this group as it provides 8,6% of the total visitors to Aruba. Western Europe 10% Curacao provides 1,63% of the total Northern Europe 2% visitors to Aruba. IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Aruba Aruba Total CDMA Revenues $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $86,418 $195,051 $350,836 $557,575 $743,002 $905,621 EVDO Revenues $793,886 $794,425 $798,404 $784,116 $770,331 $753,028 Canada CDMA Roaming $9,281,850 $9,994,496 $10,516,205 $10,642,751 $11,462,251 $11,471,767 US CDMA Roaming IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Bahamas Population: 299.697 (July 2004) Area: 13.940 Km 2 Political Status: Commonwealth Nation Language: English Telecommunications market still is a monopoly in most services. Privatization and liberalization efforts have failed. Mobile incumbent Batelco launched GSM 1900 MHz in February 2004, but coverage needs to improve to reach the same level of service of the old TDMA network Digicel & Cingular Wireless interested in entering the market IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Bahamas Baham as - Tourism by Region of Origin One of the most attractive roaming markets in the Caribbean with more than 4.5 million annual visitors. 87% of all the travelers visiting the Canada Bahamas arrive from the US and 4% 4% from Canada. Meanwhile, only 6% of Caribbean 1% USA visitors originate in countries with 87% Ot her Regions 1% GSM at 900/1800 MHz. West ern Europe 2% 69% of all visitors arrive by cruise Sout hern Europe 1% ships for a 8 – 12 hours stay. Nort hern Europe Asia 3% 1% Business travelers represent 2,76% of all visitors; and 33% of visitors stay overnight. IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Bahamas Bahamas Total CDMA Revenues $45,000,000 $40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $189,315 $427,295 $768,571 $1,221,470 $1,627,682 $1,983,929 EVDO Revenues Canada CDMA Roaming $3,103,012 $3,099,299 $3,110,616 $3,053,371 $2,998,051 $2,929,151 US CDMA Roaming $28,297,074 $30,444,472 $32,014,600 $32,392,478 $34,878,340 $34,899,138 IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Cayman Islands Population: 43.103 (July 2004) Area: 262 Km 2 Political Status: UK Overseas Territory Language: English Considered one of the most important and competitive markets in the Eastern Caribbean Cayman Islands has three mobile operators offering service: Cable & Wireless (GSM 850/1900 MHz), Digicel (GSM 900/1800 MHz) and Cingular Wireless (GSM 850/1900 MHz). 4 th mobile licensee TWTC is not expected to launch services in the foreseeable future as the investors are betting to their success in their Guyana operation, Cel*Star. IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Cayman Islands Cayman I slands - Tourism by Region of Origin 79% of all the travelers visiting the Cayman Islands arrive from the US and 5% from Canada. 85,98% of all Caribbean visitors Canada arrive from Jamaica; 70,38% of all USA 5% European visitors arrive from the 79% Caribbean UK. Asia 7% 1% Central America Only 7% of visitors originate in 1% Western Europe countries with GSM at 900/1800 1% Southern Europe MHz. 1% Northern Europe 5% Business travelers represent 4,5% of all visitors; 86% of all visitors arrive on cruise ships. IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
Cayman Islands Cayman Total CDMA Revenues $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $39,086 $88,220 $158,680 $252,186 $336,052 $409,603 EVDO Revenues $761,881 $777,749 $779,005 $783,432 $769,610 $756,284 Canada CDMA Roaming $8,086,416 $8,703,256 $9,154,521 $9,263,505 $9,975,464 $9,982,444 US CDMA Roaming IBC’ s Billing S ummit | S an Juan, Puerto Rico 2005
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