CA Truck Transition Scenarios Lew Fulton, Marshall Miller, Andrew - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CA Truck Transition Scenarios Lew Fulton, Marshall Miller, Andrew Burke, Qian Wang ITEM 4 Conference, IIASA, Vienna, 30 -31 Oct 20 18

STEPS Transition Scenarios • Go for deep CO2 reductions across LDVs and trucks, by 2050 • LDV scenarios based on TIMES runs, backcast • Truck scenarios developed using a truck choice model • Trucks modeled across 8 truck classes • Track monetary costs and “generalized costs” • Role of ZEVs vs Biofuels • Modeled transition in fuel production, feedstocks

Scenarios Business as Usual (BAU) • LDVs meet CAFE standard and ZEV mandate through • 2030 Trucks assume no advanced technology market • penetration except transit buses ZEV • Significant fuel cell and PEV sales (LDVS ~ 100% 2050, • Trucks ~60% in 2050, Transit buses 90% in 2050) ZEV + Biofuels (only trucks differ from ZEV) • Roughly half the ZEV market penetration as ZEV scenario, • diesel biofuels (HEFA, FT) reach 50% blend by 2050

Transition Scenario Modeling Framework Spreadsheet-based model • – Specify vehicle technologies (sales mix, fuel consumption, cost) – Specify fuel supply (production/ delivery pathways, carbon intensity, cost)

LDV and truck CO2 emissions reductions LDV GHG Emissions - ZEV • Cars achieve about 160 140 an 80% CO2 GHG Emissions (mt CO2e) 120 H2 reduction compared 100 Electricity 80 to 2010 CNG 60 Diesel 40 Gasoline 20 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • Trucks achieve Truck GHG Emissions - ZEV “only” about a 55% 80 70 CO2 reduction GHG Emissions (mt CO2e) 60 compared to 2010 H2 50 Electricity 40 CNG 30 Diesel 20 Gasoline 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

LDV and Truck Sales Shares LDVs ZEV Scenarios Sales Shares 120% Percentage of Vehicles (%) Cars achieve an 80-100% 100% • ZEV market share by 80% 2050 60% 40% 20% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ZEV Cars ZEV LD Trucks ZEV + B Cars ZEV + B LD Trucks Trucks achieve “only” • about a 60% ZEV market Truck ZEV Scenarios Sales Shares share in ZEV scenario by 100% Percentage of Vehicle Sales (%) 2050 (10 years behind 80% cars) 60% Possible ARB ZEV truck • 40% mandate also shown 20% 0% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ZEV+B ZEV CARB

Sales Shares, ZEV scenario Cars achieve nearly 100% market share of FCEV, BEV • and PHEV Trucks achieve only 60% FCEV and BEV • 2050 Sales Shares - ZEV 100% 90% Fuel Cell 80% 70% BEV 60% 50% Plug-in Hybrid 40% Hybrid 30% 20% NG 10% 0% Diesel/Gas

Fuel Consumption LDVs Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type - LDVs 14.0 Fuel Consumption (billion GGE) 12.0 H2 10.0 Electricity CNG 8.0 LNG 6.0 Biodiesel 4.0 Diesel 2.0 Ethanol 0.0 Gasoline 2010 2015 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 - BAU ZEV ZEV + Biofuels

Fuel Consumption Trucks Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type - Trucks 6.0 Fuel Consumption (billion GGE) 5.0 H2 Electricity 4.0 CNG 3.0 LNG 2.0 Biodiesel Diesel 1.0 Ethanol 0.0 Gasoline 2010 2015 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 - BAU ZEV ZEV + Biofuels

Fuel cost Liquid Fuels Price • Future renewable 6 diesel price rises then 5 Fuel Price ($ per gge) falls as advanced RD 4 Gasoline is phased in Diesel 3 Diesel Blend 2 Renewable Diesel 1 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • Future H2 price Gaseous Fuels and Electricity drops then rises as 14 electrolysis is phased 12 Fuel Price ($ per gge) 10 in 8 Hydrogen Electricity 6 CNG 4 2 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Truck cost • All 3 major technologies very close in price by 2040 Short haul heavy duty truck price ($ thousands) $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Diesel BEV 200 Fuel Cell

Effect of Purchase Factors for Fleets • Generalized cost = monetary + non-monetary factors (e.g. capital, fuel, uncertainty, model availability, etc.) • Difference can exceed cost of new technology Short-haul Truck Generalized Cost - BAU 600 Generalized Cost (thousand $) 500 400 300 200 100 0 Diesel Diesel CNG EV H2 Diesel Diesel CNG EV H2 -100 HEV HEV 2030 2050 Capital Cost Fuel Cost Maintenance Cost Uncertainty Refueling Inconvenience Model Availability Green PR Incentive

Truck scenario total vehicle and fuel cost Truck total vehicle and fuel costs 20 18 ZEV+B Fuel 16 BAU Fuel 14 ZEV Fuel $ Billions 12 ZEV Vehicle 10 ZEV+B Vehicle 8 BAU vehicle 6 4 2 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Truck scenario vehicle and fuel costs vs BAU Truck Cost Difference (ZEV - BAU) • ZEV truck costs 1500 Cost Difference (million $) higher but plenty of 1000 energy cost savings 500 0 to offset this 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 -500 -1000 -1500 Vehicle Fuel Total • ZEV+B truck costs Truck Cost Difference (ZEV+B - BAU) slightly lower but fuel 3000 costs higher, net Cost Difference (million $) 2500 effect is a more 2000 1500 expensive scenario 1000 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 -500 Vehicle Fuel Total

LDV and truck cumulative cost and sensitivity cases We raise and lower fuel prices by 20% in the various sensitivity cases • Total effect across cars and trucks is $10 to 60 billion up or down, • 2015-2050 cumulative This is relative to a base cost for all cars and trucks (vehicles + fuels) • of $4 trillion over this period. Thus under 2% change in cost.

Thank You

Sales Shares, ZEV and ZEV+B scenario 2050 Sales Shares - ZEV + B 2050 Sales Shares - ZEV 100% 100% 90% 90% Fuel Cell Fuel Cell 80% 80% 70% 70% BEV BEV 60% 60% 50% 50% Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid 40% 40% 30% 30% Hybrid Hybrid 20% 20% NG 10% 10% NG 0% 0% Diesel/Gas Diesel/Gas

Fleet Stock 2050 Fleet Stock - ZEV 2050 Fleet Stock - ZEV + B 100% 100% Fuel Cell 90% 90% Fuel Cell 80% 80% BEV 70% 70% BEV 60% 60% Plug-in Hybrid 50% 50% Plug-in Hybrid 40% 40% Hybrid 30% 30% Hybrid 20% 20% NG 10% NG 10% 0% 0% Diesel/Gas Diesel/Gas

VMT 2050 VMT - ZEV 2050 VMT - ZEV+B 100% 100% 90% 90% Electricity 80% 80% 70% 70% Hydrogen 60% 60% 50% 50% Electricity NG 40% 40% 30% 30% Hydrogen Diesel/Gas 20% 20% 10% 10% NG 0% 0% Diesel/Gas

Fuel Consumption – All vehicles Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type - All Vehicles 20.0 Fuel Consumption (billion GGE) 18.0 H2 16.0 14.0 Electricity 12.0 CNG 10.0 LNG 8.0 Biodiesel 6.0 Diesel 4.0 2.0 Ethanol 0.0 Gasoline 2010 2015 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 - BAU ZEV ZEV + Biofuels

Fuel Consumption – ZEV + Biofuels (Trucks) RNG content of NG increases to roughly 66% by 2050

Scenario Costs (Reference fuel price case)

Scenario Costs (Reference fuel price case)

Scenario Costs (Low fuel price case) 2050 Cost ($/gal): Diesel = $3.27, Gasoline = $2.94

Scenario Costs (Low fuel and low H2 price case) Hydrogen Cost maximum = $5.50 / kg