Briefing on Enrollment Projections & Class Size Report Cintia Johnson Assistant Superintendent, Administrative Services John Chadwick Assistant Superintendent, Facilities and Operations Lionel White Director, Facilities Planning January 19, 2017 1
Presenting Data • Cite the data source(s) • Describe the methodology • Quality Assurance measures • Transparency of data/information • Respond to questions 2
Class Size 3
Class Size Policy 20 ‐ 1.300 Ensures the provision of class sizes that support the effective delivery of the instructional program to all students. 4
Operational Definition Planning Factors: • Building blocks for the APS budget, specifying the level of most resources needed to run the schools. Planning factors often, but not always, are expressed as ratios of resources to students (for example, student/teacher ratio, textbook funds per student, student/counselor ratio). 5
Data Sources • Class Size Report from Student Information System • Planning Factors 6
Terms / Calculations Used Kindergarten • One teacher ‐ maximum class size 24 • One assistant for 16 + students First – Fifth Grade • Number of students divided by planning factor while taking into account recommended maximum class Middle School • Per 23.4 general education students with an adjustment to extrapolate 5 teacher periods to7 student periods, and an added factor for mainstreaming special education students High School • Per 25.4 general education students with an adjustment to extrapolate 5 teacher periods to 7 student periods, and an added factor for mainstreaming special education students. (Enrollment is adjusted to accommodate students taking courses at the Career Center. 7
Quality Assurance Process Data reviewed by: • Class report is provided by Information Services • Confirmation by Administrative Service 8
Class Size Report Source: Student Information System 9 Report Generated Using January 12, 2017 Enrollment
Class Size at 27 or More: 2016 ‐ 17 Source: APS Statistics 10 Report Generated Using January 18, 2017 Enrollment
Class Size at 27 or More: 2016 ‐ 17 Source: APS Statistics 11 Report Generated Using January 18, 2017 Enrollment
Class Size Range: 2016 ‐ 17 Source: APS Statistics 12 Report Generated Using January 18, 2017 Enrollment
Annual Website Postings • Class Size Report November 13 Source: APS Statistics
How Data is Used Short ‐ Term Planning • Assess student variance across the schools • Identify student distribution in classes • Addresses scheduling needs and student selection of courses Long ‐ Term Planning • Analysis of student course selection 14
Enrollment Projections 15
Enrollment Projections • Policy 40 ‐ 1.06 Budget Direction • Policy 40 ‐ 1.07 Operating Budget Development • Policy 40 ‐ 1.08 Capital Improvement Plan • PIP 50 ‐ 1.1 Capital Program Implementation 16
Operational Definition Enrollment Projections: • Measure future growth by extrapolating current trends and applying statistical techniques. Source: Arlington Community Facilities Study 17
Internal Data Sources: Information Services • September 30 th Membership Report • Used to develop 3 ‐ year average cohort transition rate Finance and Management Services • Pre ‐ K Enrollment Data Student Services & Special Education • Pre ‐ K Special Education Data 18
External Data Sources Community Planning, Housing & Development • Residential housing development data • County population data • Housing stock / Home Sales Virginia Department of Health • Arlington County “resident” birth data • Use birth five years prior, to project kindergarten cohort Affordable Housing Developers • Future affordable residential units planned or under construction 19
Terms / Calculations Used Birth to Kindergarten Ratio (BK Ratio) • Historic “resident” birth rates in Arlington County, five years prior, are used to project future incoming cohorts • Example: Resident births in SY 2011 divided by current KG cohort on September 30, 2016 equals Birth to Kindergarten Ratio Cohort Transition Ratio • The likelihood of a student advancing from one grade to the next based on historical three ‐ year cohort transition averaging of cohorts using historic “official count” information. • Example: Grade 12 cohort in SY 2016 divided by Grade 11 cohort in SY 2015 equals Cohort Transition Ratio Student Generation Factor (SGF) • Attempts to predict the number of students a residential housing development would generate after constructed and occupied. • Example: Students divided by Housing Units equals Student Generation Factor Student Yield from Future Housing • Students from recently completed residential housing units are added equally in year 1 and year 2 of the projections. • Students from residential development projects currently under construction are added equally in years 3 through year 5 of the projections. • Students from residential development projects “approved by the county but not yet under construction” are added equally in Years 6 through Year 10 of the projections. • Projected housing unit by type times SGF by type equals potential student enrollment from new residential development. 20
Kindergarten (KG) Projections • Most difficult to project because preceding grade information not available • Rely on birth data, historical kindergarten class size, student yield from new housing units, also consider other sources of information including BK ratio • KG projections involve examining historical KG enrollment trends and selecting appropriate methods based on individual school circumstances • Collaborating with County Staff to refine longer term kindergarten projections 21
Example KG Projection Methods • Three ‐ year rolling average • Five ‐ year rolling average • Three ‐ year weighted average • Five ‐ year weighted average Note: School principals are always consulted and given the opportunity to provide input during process for all grades. 22
Projections for 1 st through 12 th Grade • Easier to project because previous enrollment history information available by grade available • Rely heavily on cohort transition rates, also consider other sources of information such as student yield from new housing units 23
Quality Assurance Process Projections reviewed by: • Facilities planning staff • School principals • Independent third party statistical specialist 24
Percent Enrollment Change Since 2001 6 5.2 5.0 5 4.5 4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.8 3 High Growth Rate 2 1.3 1.1 1 0.2 0.2 0 ‐ 0.1 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ‐ 0.1 ‐ 1 ‐ 2 ‐ 1.8 ‐ 2.0 ‐ 3 Source: Annual Enrollment Projection Report – December 2016 25
Alternative Projection Scenarios Fall 2016 ‐ 2026 26
Enrollment 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 5000 0 Projected to reach 32,493 Students in September 2026 Total Enrollment from Fall 2000 to 2026 2000 18,882 Source: Annual Enrollment Projection Report ‐‐ December 2016 2001 19,097 2002 19,140 2003 19,120 2004 18,744 2005 18,411 2006 18,451 2007 18,684 2008 19,534 2009 20,233 2010 21,241 2011 21,845 2012 22,613 Actuals 2013 23,316 2014 24,529 2015 25,238 2016 26,152 2017 27,197 Projected 2018 27,879 2019 28,708 2020 29,435 2021 30,139 2022 30,799 2023 31,274 2024 31,848 2025 32,184 2026 32,493 27
Projected Enrollment Fall 2016 to 2026 Expected to grow 6,300+ students by Fall 2026 35,000 32,493 31,848 32,184 30,799 31,274 30,139 29,435 30,000 28,708 27,197 27,879 26,152 25,000 20,000 High Middle Elementary 15,000 PreK 10,000 5,000 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: Annual Enrollment Projection Report ‐‐ December 2016 28
Annual Website Postings • Fall Ten ‐ year Enrollment Projections November/December • APS Annual Enrollment Projections Report December • Ten ‐ year Capacity Utilization Chart December • Spring Enrollment Projection Updates for Following Fall March/April Source: APS Statistics 29
How Data is Used Short ‐ Term Planning • Budgeting • Staffing • ASAP / Annual Student Accommodation Plan Long ‐ Term Planning • AFSAP / Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan • CIP / Capital Improvement Plan 30
Clarification High School Boundary Change Data Analysis Source Data November 2015 Projections January 11, 2017 HS Boundary Change Data Analysis Website Link: Link Link Students Projected Students RESIDING in HS Boundary (before Boundary Changes) Projected enrollment for SY2020 ‐ 21 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th grade students (9/30/16) Annual APS Enrollment September 30, 2016 Data Source: Projections Report Membership Summary Wakefield 2,320 2,418 Washington ‐ Lee 2,912 2,123 Yorktown 2,255 2,796 Other Programs 676 Not applicable for analysis Total 8,163 7,337 Differences: 1. Projections versus Actuals 2. Students Attending versus Students Residing 3. Student data from different School Years 31
Briefing on Enrollment Projections & Class Size Report Cintia Johnson Assistant Superintendent, Administrative Services John Chadwick Assistant Superintendent, Facilities and Operations Lionel White Director, Facilities Planning January 19, 2017 32
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