CLIMATE READY BOSTON John Cleveland Boston Green Ribbon Commission 2017
BOSTON FROM 1611 TO 2016: A CITY BUILT ON “MADE LAND” From Krieger, Boston Over Time 2
TODAY: A BOOMING WATERFRONT
WITH SOME SERIOUS CHALLENGES NEAR TERM AND LONG TERM Boston Harbor Sea Level Rise Already Underway Named Hurricanes Passing Within 50 Miles of Boston (1850-2014) 4
B UT - WE ’ VE TACKLED SOME BIG PROBLEMS BEFORE … Boston Harbor Cleanup The Big Dig 5
T HERE ’ S NO SHORTAGE OF GREAT IDEAS … Living With Water Competition 6
A ND WE CAN LEARN FROM OTHER CITIES New York City Post Sandy About 60% of the GNP of the Netherlands is produced below sea level 7
CLIMATE READY BOSTON: PHASE I 1. Climate 2. Vulnerability 3. Resilience 4. Implementation Consensus Assessment Initiatives Roadmap Sc Scien ience-based ed Comprehen Co ensive Set of Set of ac actio tions to to Recommen Rec endati tions for or consensus of lik cons likely ely evalu eva luati tion of futu uture address the addr the key ey ris risks execution of resili execu resilien ence ranges for rang r futu uture risks ass ris associa iate ted with ith identifi iden ified in in the the initiat initiatives es, inc inclu ludin ing climate clim te cond condit itio ions each each of three three clim climate ate Vuln ulnerabil ilit ity respo responsible e parties arties and and acro across multi multiple e ris risk hazards: extre haz extreme heat, heat, Ass sses essment. . miles milestones facto actors for seve several l time time sto stormwate ter flood looding g perio eriods and coas and coastal al and and riv river erine flo looding
BOSTON RESEARCH ADVISORY GROUP: SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS ON CLIMATE PROJECTIONS • 30 member team from area universities • Extreme Temperatures • Extreme Precipitation • Sea Level Rise: Coastal & Riverine Flooding 9
MORE HOT DAYS
AFFECTING VULNERABLE POPULATIONS Older Adults and Heat Exposure Low Income Population and Heat Exposure
MORE INTENSE PRECIPATION By 2060, heavy precipitation events could drop more than 6 inches of water within 24 hours , which is the height of an average city curb, and 20% more than what we get now.
CAUSING MORE STORMWATER FLOODING
MORE EXPOSURE TO COASTAL FLOODING AS SEA LEVEL RISES Why Sea Level Rise? • Thermal expansion • Melting glaciers • Melting ice from Greenland and Antarctica • Not Arctic ice • Boston has minimal freeboard 14
SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS
LIMITED DATA ON TRENDS IN STORM INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY, BUT PHYSICS ARE CLEAR
2030s-2050s FLOOD PROGRESSION COASTAL & RIVERINE FLOODING 15% 25%* In the near term, exposure will be concentrated in South Boston , East Boston , 15% Charlestown , and Downtown , and represents 25% a significant threat to these neighborhoods and the rest of the city. Average Monthly High Tide 10% Annual Chance Flood 1% Annual Chance Flood % of Neighborhood Exposed X% to 1% Annual Chance Flood 17 * Excludes Logan Airport
2050s OR LATER FLOOD PROGRESSION COASTAL & RIVERINE FLOODING 35% 50%* By the middle of the century, exposure will increase across waterfront 30% neighborhoods , and start to be significant in 50% Dorchester. 10% Average Monthly High Tide 10% Annual Chance Flood 1% Annual Chance Flood % of Neighborhood Exposed X% to 1% Annual Chance Flood 18 * Excludes Logan Airport
2070s OR LATER FLOOD PROGRESSION COASTAL & RIVERINE FLOODING 55% 60%* In the late century, exposure will expand to 10% vast areas of the city , 45% 15% including inland 70% neighborhoods like the 60% South End and neighborhoods along the 5% Charles River . 20% Average Monthly High Tide 10% Annual Chance Flood 1% Annual Chance Flood % of Neighborhood Exposed X% to 1% Annual Chance Flood 19 * Excludes Logan Airport
FLOOD PROGRESSION COASTAL & RIVERINE FLOODING 20
PEOPLE AND BUILDINGS EXPOSED TO FLOODING BUILDINGS BUILDING VALUE POPULATION 2030s-2050s 2050s-2100s 2070s or Later 2030s-2050s 2050s-2100s 2070s or Later 2030s-2050s 2050s-2100s 2070s or Later 21
PEOPLE AND BUILDINGS EXPOSED TO 1% FLOOD RISK: 18,000 People 85,000 People 2000 Buildings 12,000 Buildings valued at valued at $20 Billion today $85 Billion today 2030 + 2070 + 22
EXPOSURE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2030s-2050s 2050s-2100s 2070s or Later SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS While the Blue and Silver Lines have the greatest initial exposure, the Red and Orange Lines account for a growing proportion of exposed stations Asset Inventories conducted for each focus area. over time.
DOWNTOWN 24
2030s-2050s FLOOD PROGRESSION DOWNTOWN In the near term, the waterfront from Union Wharf to the Aquarium , as well as inland areas near Faneuil Hall and North Station , will be exposed to coastal flooding, with the most frequent exposure (10% annual chance) concentrated around the Aquarium. 25
2070s OR LATER FLOOD PROGRESSION DOWNTOWN In the late century, exposure to high-probability flooding (10% annual chance) will spread to much of Downtown , with areas from Lewis Wharf to the Aquarium and inland to Faneuil Hall exposed to high-tide flooding at least once a month. 26
FLOODING IMPACTS DOWNTOWN In the late century, with 36 in. of SLR and a 1% 1% annual chance flood event… 47% 1,200 $3.1 billion of Downtown’s of Downtown’s current population existing buildings will in economic losses will will be exposed to be exposed to occur from flooding flooding flooding Downtown 27
EAST BOSTON 28
2030s-2050s FLOOD PROGRESSION EAST BOSTON In the near term, exposure will be concentrated near the East Boston Greenway, Central Square, and the Sumner/Callahan Tunnel entrances. 29
2070s OR LATER FLOOD PROGRESSION EAST BOSTON In the late century, exposure will extend to much of Logan Airport, and large areas around the Greenway and Central Square will flood at least monthly. 30
SOUTH BOSTON - SEAPORT 31
2030s-2050s FLOOD PROGRESSION SOUTH BOSTON 32
2070s OR LATER FLOOD PROGRESSION SOUTH BOSTON 33
EAST BOSTON 34
2030s-2050s FLOOD PROGRESSION EAST BOSTON In the near term, exposure will be concentrated near the East Boston Greenway, Central Square, and the Sumner/Callahan Tunnel entrances. 35
2070s OR LATER FLOOD PROGRESSION EAST BOSTON In the late century, exposure will extend to much of Logan Airport, and large areas around the Greenway and Central Square will flood at least monthly. 36
IMAGINE BOSTON 2030 CONTEXT Boston’s population is growing . 723,500 37
FROM IMAGINE BOSTON 2030: THE CHALLENGE AHEAD “Many of the areas where Boston will gr grow ar are exp exposed to floodin ing ri risk as as se sea lev evels ri rise. . By gr growing in n the hese ar areas, , Boston is s co commit itting to pro protectin ing them. . Although we Al we do do no not kno know al all the mec echanisms for pro protection yet, , Boston is s inv nvestin ing in de developing local cal cl climate pl plans for r vuln ulnerable ar areas. . The hese pl plans wi will identify mul ultilayered inv nvestments ne needed to en enab able cl clim imate-ready gr growth. . Boston wi will app approach this is topic dynamical dy ally, , re regularly gat gather th the most up up-to to-date inf nformation, , and and re respond to 36 inches SLR new information as we have it.” 38
RISING TO THE CHALLENGE
ENGAGE & PREPARE COMMUNITIES PROPOSED STRATEGIES: • Engage Bostonians as partners • Co-create neighborhood plans • Provide training for jobs in resilience
ADAPT BUILDINGS PROPOSED STRATEGIES: • Use future-oriented flood maps • Update zoning & building codes for new buildings & major renovations • Audit existing buildings for retrofits • Develop new financing tools and incentives • Promote access to insurance.
INCREASE RESILIENCE OF INFRASTRUCTURE PROPOSED STRATEGIES: • Establish ICC • Develop climate ready standards for planning and design • Integrate resilience with ongoing capital planning and upgrades • Set up neighborhood energy grids • Use green infrastructure/work with nature to reduce impacts
PROTECT VULNERABLE SHORES PROPOSED STRATEGIES: • Investigate options for flood protection & smart development • Use a layered approach to optimize protection
East Boston: Near Term Shoreline Protection Concepts
EAST BOSTON LONGER TERM SHORELINE PROTECTION CONCEPTS
ASSESS FEASIBILITY OF HARBOR-WIDE COASTAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS Potential Harbor Barrier Alternatives
HARBOR BARRIER EXAMPLE Maeslant Storm Surge Barrier: The world’s largest moveable barrier Part of a system to protect the Port and City of Rotterdam from flooding during coastal storms Constructed between 1991 and 1997 and in operation since Each storm surge door is the length of Maeslant Storm Barrier, Rotterdam the Eiffel Tower: 240 meters each Cost to build: 450 million Euros
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