Board of Education F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 9 Collective Expertise - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pupil Enrollment Projection Study Report P r e s e n t e d t o : Utica Community Schools Board of Education F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 9

❑ Collective Expertise Planners, architects, engineers, construction experts, financial advisors and real estate professionals – dedicated to our clients ❑ Full Service Ability to service K-12 clients from concept to completion ▪ Enrollment Projections – recognized by Dept. of Treasury ▪ Bond Planning / Feasibility Studies ▪ Program Management during design, construction, and close-out ▪ Real Estate Asset Positioning ❑ Independent Advice Advisory services are provided without conflicts — our objective is your success 2

❑ Ann Arbor Public Schools ❑ Novi Community Schools ❑ Birmingham Public Schools ❑ Rochester Community Schools ❑ Bloomfield Hills Schools ❑ South Lyon Community Schools ❑ Farmington Public Schools ❑ Traverse City Area Public Schools ❑ Fenton Area Schools ❑ Utica Community Schools ❑ Grandville Public Schools ❑ Walled Lake Consolidated Schools ❑ Holly Area Schools ❑ Warren Consolidated Schools ❑ Huron School District ❑ Yale Public Schools ❑ Lake Orion Community Schools ❑ Zeeland Public Schools ❑ Northville Public Schools 3

Demographic Trends in Southeast Michigan Southeast Michigan Council of Government (SEMCOG) recently released a Quick Facts report detailing its 2045 forecast of school-age population in Southeast Michigan that forecasts a continued drop in school-age population. Some highlights: School- age population has been declining since the early 2000’s. The region has seen • a 15% decline in 15 years (2000-2015). The number is forecast to drop another 10% by 2025. • The impact has been seen in elementary and middle schools over the past 15 years. • Going forward, the impact will be more prevalent in high schools and post-secondary education. At the individual school-district level, all but 12 of the 112 school districts in the region • are forecast to experience declines in school-age children between now and 2025. By 2026, the senior population (65+) will outnumber children in Southeast Michigan. • 4

SEMCOG Analysis of Population in Southeast Michigan 5

6

❑ PMC’s Process ▪ Demographic Growth ▪ GIS ▪ US Census Bureau ▪ Core Base Statistical Area ▪ Primary Area (District) ▪ Comparison #1 (County) ▪ Comparison #2 (State) ▪ Cohort Survival – DS 4061 7

8

9

District Demographic Summary Difference 2010 2018 2023 (10-years) Population 184,264 191,743 196,702 + 12,438 Total Households (Occupied) 70,186 73,092 75,347 + 5,161 Median Household Owner Age 52.2 53.8 54.4 +2.2 years Median Household Income $68,038 $86,189 $97,672 +$29,634 # of Households Earning ($125K - $200K+) 13,592 22,065 27,262 +13,670 Median Household Income (by municipality) 2018 Macomb Township $95,516 Sterling Heights $62,344 Shelby Township $69,574 Ray Township $63,944 Utica, City of $55,221 Washington Township $87,264 10

Utica Community Schools Macomb County Michigan 11

❑ Population Trend by Age Groups within Utica Community Schools Boundary 12

Current K-12 Cohort Age 0-5 Cohort 13

Historical Projected 14

Historical Projected 15

District Demographic and Enrollment Summary Difference 2010 2018 2023 (10-years) Population 184,264 191,743 196,702 + 12,438 Total Households (Occupied) 70,186 73,092 75,347 + 5,161 Median Household Owner Age 52.2 53.8 54.4 +2.2 years 31,295 30,771 30,933 Enrolled PK-12 Population -362 Total K-12 Enrolled Students in Utica Community Schools (2014-15 vs. 2018-19 School Year) • Full Time Equivalent K-12 Students (2018-19 Fall Count): 26,873 • K-12 Students Projected (PMC projections from 2014-15): 26,921 -48 Pupils (99.9% Accuracy) 16

Questions / Answers