Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia in Asia Asia Regional Seminar for Sustainable g Resource Management: Session 3 Biomass Use and Biofuels Mark Elder Principal Researcher p Manager, PMO-Policy & Governance and Biofuel Project, IGES Mita Conference Hall, Tokyo, Japan, 10 March 2009 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Introduction to the IGES Biofuel Project Objectives: � Assess the benefits and costs of biofuel use in Asia in order to formulate policy options that optimise its application in an formulate policy options that optimise its application in an environmentally sustainable manner. � Special focus will be given to the transport sector. � The research aims at formulating policy options at the national � The research aims at formulating policy options at the national level with regional perspectives taken into consideration. Funding: Funding: � This research is being conducted in collaboration with other universities and research institutes and is funded by two research grants. g – The (BforSD) project (‘Biofuel utilization Strategies for Sustainable Development) is funded by the Ministry of Environment of Japan until FY2010. It is led by the University of Tokyo and focuses on case studies of Indonesia India China and Japan case studies of Indonesia, India, China, and Japan. – One is led by Keio University and funded by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST). It focuses on economic modelling. IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 2
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Research Partners and Funding • This research will be conducted in collaboration with other universities and research institutes and is funded by two research grants. g – The ‘Biofuel utilization Strategies for Sustainable Development’ (BforSD) project is funded by the Ministry of Environment of Japan until FY2010 and led by the University of Tokyo. – The one led by Keio University and funded by Japan Science and Th l d b K i U i it d f d d b J S i d Technology Agency (JST) is implemented by the IGES Economic Analysis Team Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp 3 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Focus of this Presentation: Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia y � This presentation will present material from our chapter in the IGES White Paper, “Prospects and Challenges of Biofuels in Asia: Policy Implications ” Challenges of Biofuels in Asia: Policy Implications, as well as some of our recent research results. � http://enviroscope.iges.or.jp/modules/envirolib/upload/1565/ attach/07 chapter5 pdf attach/07_chapter5.pdf � Dimensions of sustainability: y – GHG emissions – Food fuel conflict – Economic – Poverty reduction – Rural development Rural development IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 4
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Biofuels and Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Life cycle analysis studies show that biofuels have some theoretical potential to reduce GHG emissions. • In practice, it is difficult to be sure due to several potentially offsetting factors – Variation in production methods Variation in production methods – Land use change (direct and indirect) – Especially deforestation • Not much LCA analysis has been conducted in Asian contexts – May be variation in feedstock production methods and agro climactic conditions – So GHG reduction potential could be more or less • More research is needed Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp 5 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Food-fuel Conflict • Global trends – Worries about the food-fuel conflict peaked during the recent period of high oil prices and corresponding rush to biofuels. – Now, worries are reduced due to the recent economic crisis and sharp fall in oil prices. Pressure on food prices at least has lessened. – However, the situation could reverse itself in the future. • In Asia, one major response to this potential problem was a search for non-edible agricultural feedstocks or crops that can grow on non-edible agricultural feedstocks, or crops that can grow on wastelands. • There are some difficulties with this logic – Non-edible crops will stlll require land, so food crops could still be displaced. – Farmers may prefer to grow crops with dual uses, because market is better. – Crops that could grow on wastelands sound good in principle, but if a large Crops that could grow on wastelands sound good in principle, but if a large market is developed, it may be difficult to limit to wastelands due to high pressure to reduce costs and increase profits.. IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 6
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Economic Sustainability & Resource Availability • No evidence yet that biofuels are price competitive with fossil fuels, especially with recent drastic decline , p y in oil prices. – India and Indonesia are still considering price support measures. • Water availability concerns: this has not been well- researched as far as we are aware researched, as far as we are aware. • Potential need for increased fertilizer. – This could reduce any GHG emissions benefits and increase – This could reduce any GHG emissions benefits and increase costs. • Land availability (next page) y ( g ) Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp 7 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Land Availability � Biofuel production (1 st generation) requires � New land or � Land converted from other uses, or “wastelands” � Key concerns – Potential deforestation, a major source of “new” land. In some cases, forests are reclassified as “unproductive.” • Biofuels are not the only source of pressure for deforestation • Biofuels are not the only source of pressure for deforestation – Ownership issues. Sometimes “unused” or “wastelands” are actually common lands used by low income people. – Potential displacement of indigenous peoples IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 8
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Poverty Reduction Potential • Biofuels could increase employment under the following conditions – Use of more labor intensive production methods – Biofuel refining structure is local – Local production and consumption – If previously unused land is used If previously unused land is used • Limiting factors – Production may be capital intensive – Potential displacement of poor farmers – Potential poor labor market conditions • Need to consider potential displacement effects (for example reduced Need to consider potential displacement effects (for example, reduced employment relating to fossil fuels) • Could be a tradeoff between employment and cost – M More labor intensive production methods could be smaller scale and higher cost l b i i d i h d ld b ll l d hi h Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp 9 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Jatropha -- Hope or Hype? • Jatropha was believed by many to be a miracle plant – Oil has high GHG reduction potential according to LCA It g p g needs little water so could grow on wastelands. – No food fuel conflict because • it grows on wastelands it t l d • It is inedible (actually poisonous – traditionally used as fences) – Oil has high GHG reduction potential according to LCA g p g IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 10
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Jatropha – Problems � Key issue: jatropha yield is low, so it is high cost. • It will grow on wastelands, but its yield is meager g , y g • Improved yield requires better land, fertilizer, and water o This offsets GHG reduction benefits. � Results from IGES field research in India • Farmers are not interested because profit is too low • High transport costs – remote fields (wastelands) difficult for Hi h t t t t fi ld ( t l d ) diffi lt f villagers to access, difficult to transport to market. • Inputs are needed to increase yield p y • Overall, productivity is too low. Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp 11 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Second Generation Biofuels • Generally considered more promising than 1 st generation ones (better theoretical GHG reduction). g ( ) • Waiting for technological breakthroughs to increase productivity and reduce costs. • But 2 nd generation ones still face potential difficulties. – Use of agricultural feedstocks will still raise issues of food fuel conflict and land use change. – Use of agriculture waste & crop residues– in many cases this is typically returned to the soil. Their use for biofuels this is typically returned to the soil. Their use for biofuels could lead to soil degradation and erosion. Increased fertilizer use could become necessary. – Forest litter collection could expose forests to soil Forest litter collection could expose forests to soil degradation & erosion. IGES | http://www.iges.or.jp Biofuels and Sustainability in Asia, 10 March 2009 12
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