Beyond Robotization, Automation & Digitalization Lawrence Jeff - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Beyond Robotization, Automation & Digitalization Lawrence Jeff Johnson Deputy Director Research Department

Trends in the World of Work: What kind of growth? World GDP growth rates by component 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Private consumption Government consumption Gross Investment External balance growth in real GDP Source: Economic Intelligence Unit

Trends in the World of Work: Trends in the World of Work: Enough jobs? The effect of the Crisis? Current and estimated jobs gap in the World 59 mn 3.5 59 mn 3.0 Global employment (billion) 1.6 bn 1.5 bn (46%) 2.5 (46%) 1.5 bn (49%) 1.4 bn 2.0 (53%) 1.5 1.8 bn 1.6 bn (52%) 1.4 bn (51%) 1.2 bn (44%) (49%) 1.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Estimated/Forecast Own- account workers and contributing family workers Wage and salaried workers Employment Pre-crisis trend Source: ILO data from October 2015

Trends in the World of Work: What jobs? Trends in the World of Work: the decent work deficit Own-account workers and contributing family members and Unemployment levels (million) and rates (%) in the World 2.0 90% 1.8 80% 1.6 70% 1.4 60% 1.2 (billion) 50% 1.0 40% 0.8 30% 0.6 20% 0.4 10% 0.2 0.0 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unemployment Own-account workers and contributing family members Unemployment rate Own-account workers and contributing family members (%) Source: ILO data from October 2015

Trends in the World of Work: Unemployment, only the tip of the iceberg Own-account workers and contributing family members and Unemployment as share of labour force (%) 80% 3.4 million 4.1 unemployed 70% 7.4 60% 4.4 50% 5.8 4.5 40% 12.1 70.6 9.2 6.5 64.7 30% 51.7 43.5 1.4 BILLION 10.1 20% 40.2 10.1 29.0 29.6 29.8 6.9 vulnerable workers 10% 5.5 16.2 10.4 10.3 6.1 0% Unemployment Own-account workers and contributing family members Source: ILO data from October 2015

Trends in the World of Work: Trends in the World of Work for the Caribbean What jobs? Vulnerable employment and unemployment rates (%) 60 50 40 Percent 30 20 10 0 2005 2015 2020 Unemployment Vulnerable employment Source: ILO Trends Econometric Models, April 2017

What jobs in the World of Work? Employment by status and contract type (%, latest available year) Low income 5.7 7.5 4.5 1.2 60.5 20.7 Middle 13.7 14.4 16.5 2.3 40.1 13.1 income High income 76.7 9.3 0.6 3.4 9.0 1.0 Total (90 26.4 12.9 12.3 2.4 34.9 11.1 countries) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 % total employment Employee: permanent Employee: temporary Employee: no contract Employer Own-account Unpaid family workers Source: Elaboration of data from ILO World Employment and Social Outlook 2015: The changing nature of jobs Note: Most common year 2012 (43 countries); between 2012-14 for 56% of the countries, 2010-11 for 26% and 2006-09 for 18%.

Trends in the World of Work: Trends in the World of Work: What jobs? What jobs? Change in the occupational employment share by type of occupation between 2000 and 2015 (% points) 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.1 Changes in employment shares 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 (pourcentage point) 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 Trends in the World of Work: 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 What jobs? -2.4 -2.4 -2.9 -3.1 -3.1 -4.0 -5.0 -5.6 -5.7 -5.9 -6.0 -8.5 Routine Occupations Manual non-routine occupations Cognitive non-routine occupations Source: ILO data from November 2015, definition from Autor et al. (2003) and Jaimovich and Siu (2012)

Trends in the World of Work: Trends in the World of Work: What jobs? Job polarization Job polarization across the world Dark Dark 8.0 colours: colours: 2000-2013 2000-2013 Light Light 6.0 colours: colours: Changes in employment shares 2013-2020 2013-2020 4.0 (in percentage points) 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 High skilled Medium Low skilled High skilled Medium Low skilled High skilled Medium Low skilled High skilled Medium Low skilled skilled skilled skilled skilled Low income Low-Middle income Upper-Middle income High income Level of economic development Note: Change in employment shares, in percentage points; *: forecasts after 2016 Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, Nov 2016

Trends in the World of Work: Trends in the World of Work: What jobs? shift of skill requirement Shift of skill requirement of occupations, 2000-2017 (percentage points) 10 Change in employment share by skill level 8 6 4 (percentage points) 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 World Northern Sub-Saharan Latin America Northern Arab States Eastern Asia South-Eastern Southern Asia Northern, Eastern Europe Central and Africa Africa and Caribbean America Asia and the Southern and Western Asia Pacific Western Europe Low skill Medium skill High skill Source: ILO Trends Econometric Models, November 2016

Major structural changes : Gender Scarce natural composition Transition to Globalisation Demographic Rising income resources & Innovation of greener & fragmented change inequalities climate occupations & economies production change inequalities

The Three Stages of Changing World of Work 1 2 3 Four conversations Four conversations High Level Global High Level Global International Labour International Labour around the initiative around the initiative Commission Commission Conference Conference 2016 2017 2018 2019 Future of Work Decent jobs Work and for all society Organization of Governance work and of work production

Research Department: Proposed Areas of Work Monitoring and analysis of major global trends (with focus on women and youth) Technological Global supply chains changes, innovation, Inclusive growth and and trade and employment policy coherence relationships Structural Green jobs and the transformation for impact of climate more and better jobs change

Worldwide Research Network UN system University of • Witwatersrand, South Africa Regional and Universities & IPEA, Brazil • country Research Harvard & MIT, USA Changing • offices Institutes CASS, China World of • IHD, India Work • IAB, Germany • Oxford, UK • Policy makers Think Tanks

Changing World of Work & SDGs

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