BC Hydros LTAP and the Long-Term Electricity Transmission Inquiry - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

C14-2 BC Hydro’s LTAP and the Long-Term Electricity Transmission Inquiry Presentation to the BCUC Preliminary Workshop Randy Reimann BC Hydro Manager, Resource Planning April 17, 2009 S ECTION 5 T RANSMISSION I NQUIRY E XHIBIT

Overview • BC Hydro: – Who We Are – What We Do • Energy Planning Today: A 20 year plan • The Long-term Transmission Inquiry: Looking forward 30 years

Who We Are • A Crown Corporation • Established in 1961 • Over 5,000 employees • Receive guidance from the provincial government through several policy instruments, including a Shareholder’s Letter of Expectations and BC Energy Plan. • BC Hydro is regulated by the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC) under the Utilities Commission Act.

What We Do • BC Hydro's primary business activities are the generation and distribution of electricity. • Transmission of that electricity is facilitated by the BC Transmission Corporation on behalf of BC Hydro and other power providers in B.C. • BC Hydro serves customers in an area containing about 94% of British Columbia's population

Our System • BC Hydro operates 30 hydroelectric facilities and three natural gas-fired thermal power plants. • About 90% of the province's electricity is produced by major hydroelectric generating stations on the Columbia and Peace river systems and in the Coastal Region. • BC Hydro's thermal power plants and Independent Power Producers contribute the remaining 10 per cent of generation. • BC Hydro also serves 17 communities – known as non- integrated areas – that are not linked to our transmission network.

Meeting B.C.’s Future Electricity Needs • BC Hydro is planning now to meet future energy needs in B.C. Conserving more Power Smart; energy efficiency standards for buildings; smart metering, rate incentives; public campaigns Buying more IPPs/renewable resources; clean power call; standing offer program; bioenergy call Building more Reinvesting in existing assets, $3.4 billion in next two years; considering new options for firm energy

BC Hydro & BCTC Overview • BCTC plans, operates and manages BC Hydro’s transmission system • BC Hydro requests transmission service from BCTC through the Network Integration Transmission Service (NITS) process • BC Hydro’s transmission service requests are based on a base resource plan and contingency resource plans (CRPs) that result from its Long-Term Acquisition Plan (LTAP)

2008 LTAP Context - Summary • BC Hydro required to file long-term resource plans with BC Utilities Commission (BCUC) under Utilities Commission Act (UCA) • 2008 LTAP Considerations – Update of 2006 Integrated Electricity Plan (IEP)/LTAP – BCUC 2006 IEP/LTAP Decision • Need for new resources accepted (further work on Burrard needed) • More work required on assessing risk – 2007 Energy Plan • Target to acquire 50 per cent of BC Hydro’s incremental resource needs through conservation by 2020 • Thermal generation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be fully offset or sequestered • 90% clean or renewable generation • Province to be electricity self-sufficient by 2016 –Special Direction 10 – UCA Amendments

LTAP Process Key Risks and Load Forecast Uncertainties Step 4 – Step 1 - Step 2 - Load Step 5 – Portfolio Step 6 – Long- Develop & Establish Resource Trade-Off Term Acquisition Evaluate Objectives Balance Analysis Plan Portfolios Step 3 – Attributes Resource Options Inventory

Energy Planning Engagement 2 0 0 5 I E P S t a k e h o ld e r & F i rs t N a t i o n s E n g a g e m e n t R e s o u r c e O p ti o n s P ro v in c ia l I E P B r o a d P u b l ic R e g io n a l F ir s t N a t io n s C o m m it t e e W o rk s h o p s S u rv e y / W e b s i te R e g io n a l O p e n s e s s i o n t o I n p u t a s S e le c t e d p ro v id e b ro a d I n f o r m a t io n r e q u e s t e d C o m m it t e e t o re v ie w o f in p u t s S e s s io n s u n d e rt a k e a n d t o t h e I E P f a c i lit a t e d W o rk s h o p s p ro c e s s d e c is i o n s R e s o u r c e O p t io n s a n a ly s is p ro c e s s R e p o rt P ro v in c ia l I E P B r o a d P u b l ic R e g io n a l F ir s t N a t io n s C o m m it t e e 2 0 0 5 IE P / A c t io n P la n 2005/06 2008 LTAP 2008 LTAP Engagement Engagement Public Intervenors Resource Options Fort Nelson Communications 2008 LTAP 2007/08

2008 LTAP Components • Expenditure Determination Requests – Burrard – Demand-Side Management (DSM) Plan – Clean Power Call Definition – Fort Nelson – Mica Units – Site C • Justification for Expenditures – Load Resource Gap – Risk Framework – 2007 Electricity and Gas Price Forecasts – GHG and Renewable Energy Credit (REC) Price Forecast – Resource Options Update – Portfolio Analysis – Contingency Resource Plans

2008 LTAP Load-Resource Balance 70,000 68,000 66,000 Firm Energy Capability 64,000 62,000 (GWh) 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,000 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 F2024 F2025 F2026 F2027 F2028 Fiscal Year (year ending March 31) 2008 Load Forecast Range after DSM Existing and Committed Supply Planned IPP Purchases 2008 Mid Load Forecast after DSM

2008 LTAP CRP Shortfall Risks Capacity Reduction for CRP Risk Purposes (MW) F2017 F2028 530 930 Load Forecast Uncertainty 270 450 DSM Deliverability Risk 150 150 Burrard Unit Catastrophic Failure 50 n/a Calls Capacity Reduction Total Reduction: 1,000 1,530

Regional Planning: Fort Nelson • BC Hydro supplies Ft. Nelson customers with Ft. Nelson Generating Station (FNG) and AESO Fort • BC Hydro is working with Connected Nelson project proponents to assess to Alberta and update the regional load grid forecast • 2008 LTAP requests BCUC approval of expenditures to implement upgrades to the FNG • Because of the possibility of additional load growth, BC Hydro is advancing investigation of additional supply

LTAP Process: BCH & BCTC Interactions BC Hydro Resource Develop Portfolio LTAP & Options Alternative Analysis CRPs Portfolios System Reinforcement Timing of Transmission BC Hydro/BCTC Supply/DSM Resource Requirements Schedule of Input Additions Transmission Project Information e.g., BCTC BCTC Transmission - Cost System Model - Land Impact

BC Hydro-BCTC Planning Processes BC Hydro NITS LTAP & BC Hydro CRPs � Application RRA � BC Hydro/BCTC NITS Study BC Hydro Inputs: NITS Load & Resource Agreement Plans BCTC: System Studies Transmission BCTC BCTC BCTC Revenue Capital Capital Requirement Planning Plan � Application � Process � BCUC Review

2008 LTAP Process • 2008 LTAP submitted to BCUC on June 12, 2008 • Evidentiary Update with revised load, DSM and call attrition information submitted December 22, 2008 • Oral hearing phases completed March 2009 • BC Hydro Written Argument submitted April 9, 2009 • Decision expected summer 2009

2008 LTAP & Transmission Inquiry Linkages Transmission 2008 LTAP Inquiry Load Forecast •Domestic need •Provincial focus •20 years •30 years •High, Mid, Low •Scenarios forecasts Load-Resource •20 years •30 years Balance Electricity Resource •Update of 2006 •Grouped by Potential IEP/LTAP geographic location •Resource blocks •Cost-effective and ranked on unit energy probable sequence of cost (UEC) development Market Assessment •Self-sufficiency •Access to market •Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)