Bay Area Economic & Residential Update YEAR - OVER - YEAR SALES, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Bay Area Economic & Residential Update

YEAR - OVER - YEAR SALES, PRICE AND RENT GROWTH* CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE SAN FRANCISCO MEDIAN CONDOMINIUM RESALE PRICE $950,000 +14.8% CONDOMINIUM RESALE CLOSINGS 838 -13.8% AVERAGE RENT $3,229 +9.4% CURRENT PERFORMANCE ANNUAL CHANGE OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE MEDIAN RESALE PRICE $417,500 +23.5% 273 +17.7% RESALE CLOSINGS AVERAGE RENT $2,421 +10.3% *For three months ending in July 31, 2014 compared to same period in 2013 Source: SFARMLS, EBRDI, Real Facts MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

YEAR - OVER - YEAR JOB GROWTH CURRENT CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 477,600 480k HEIGHT OF DOT - COM PEAK 470k CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 456,700 460k 450k 440k 430k 420k 410k 400k 390k 380k 370k 360k 350k 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Year Source: EDD MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

HISTORICAL 30 - YEAR MORTGAGE RATES 19% RATE IN 1981 18% 18.5% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% Mortgage (30 � Year Fixed) 12% 11% CURRENT RATE 10% 4.1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Year Source: FRED MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

SAN FRANCISCO ACTIVE CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY 2,000 Number of Units Available New Construction Resales 1,500 Total Units 1,000 500 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Source: SFARMLS, Polaris Pacific MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM MARKET - MONTHS OF REMAINING INVENTORY 14 12 10 10 Number of Months MRI 8 2.1 MONTHS 6 4 2 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Source: SFARMLS MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

SAN FRANCISCO HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND SHORTFALL OF 15,175 Number of Units UNITS 15,000 New Housing Units Shortfall 10,000 Total Units 5,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Source: CBRE, EDD, Polaris Pacific MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

SAN FRANCISCO RENTS AVERAGE RENT $3,400 $3,229 $3,200 $3,000 Rents $2,800 $2,600 $2,400 2011 Q4 2012 Q2 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 Quarter Source: Real Facts MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES AND SALES Resales PRICE, 24.6% OVER PEAK PREVIOUS PEAK 400 $1000k Median Price PRICE $762,500 $900k $800k 300 $700k $600k 200 $500k $400k $300k 100 $200k $100k 0 $0k 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Year Source: SFARMLS MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

SAN FRANCISCO ANNUAL MULTI - FAMILY COMPLETIONS Forecast 2,500 Apartments PEAK CONDOS PEAK APARTMENTS Condos 2,069 2,502 2,000 1,500 Units 1,000 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Source: Polaris Pacific MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE ACTIVE CONDOMINIUM INVENTORY 1,000 Number of Units Available New Construction 750 Resales Total Units 500 250 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Source: EBRDI, Polaris Pacific MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE MARKET - MONTHS OF REMAINING INVENTORY 20 20 15 Number of Months MRI 1.3 MONTHS 10 10 5 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Source: EBRDI MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

OAKLAND RENTS $2,600 AVERAGE RENT $2,421 $2,400 $2,200 Rents $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 2011 Q4 2012 Q2 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 Quarter Source: Real Facts MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE CONDOMINIUM PRICES AND SALES Resales PRICE PEAK $417,500 IS Median Price $445,000 IN 6.2% BELOW JULY, 2006 PEAK 100 $400k 80 $300k 60 $200k 40 $100k 20 0 $0k 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Year Source: EBRDI MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE CONDOMINIUM PRICES FOLLOW SAN FRANCISCO $1000k San Francisco Oakland $900k $800k $700k $600k $500k $400k $300k $200k $100k $0k 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Year Source: EBRDI, SFARMLS MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE ANNUAL MULTI - FAMILY COMPLETIONS Forecast 2,000 Apartments Condos PEAK CONDOS 1,597 1,500 PEAK APARTMENTS Units 774 1,000 ≈ 450 APARTMENTS 500 CONVERTED TO CONDOS 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Source: Polaris Pacific MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE UNDER CONSTRUCTION HOUSING SUPPLY APARTMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION CONDOMINIUMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION TOTAL NUMBER: 369 TOTAL NUMBER: 0 Emeryville Emeryville 369 0 Oakland Oakland 0 0 Map of the Market Map of the Market Number of Units: 369 Number of Units: 0 (Source: Polaris Paci fj c) (Source: Polaris Paci fj c) 0 1,000 0 300 1,000 300 MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE

OAKLAND / EMERYVILLE APPROVED HOUSING SUPPLY APARTMENTS APPROVED CONDOMINIUMS APPROVED TOTAL NUMBER: 4,194 TOTAL NUMBER: 3,834 Emeryville Emeryville 84 89 Oakland Oakland 4,110 3,745 Map of the Market Map of the Market Number of Units: 4,194 Number of Units: 3,834 (Source: Polaris Paci fj c) (Source: Polaris Paci fj c) 0 1,000 0 300 1,000 300 MACRO TRENDS SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND/EMERYVILLE