BATON ROUGE AREA ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ADAM KNAPP, JULY 28, 2020
JOB LOSSES IN THE CAPITAL REGION ARE STILL NEARLY TWICE AS HIGH AS THOSE FROM THE GREAT RECESSION 430.0 MAJOR BR MSA JOB LOSSES Great Recession* 420.0 (12/07 – 1/10): -6.2% Great 410.0 2016 Flood (8/16): -1.0% Recession* 400.0 Led to lower job count in • 2016 high-employment times 390.0 Flood like holidays 380.0 2020 Covid-19 Pandemic 370.0 (3/20 – Present): -10.5% COVID 360.0 -13.2% in April • Pandemic -11.1% in May • 350.0 340.0 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Jan-07 May-07 Jan-08 May-08 Jan-09 May-09 Jan-10 May-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jan-13 May-13 Jan-14 May-14 Jan-15 May-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jan-18 May-18 Jan-19 May-19 Jan-20 May-20 Nonfarm Jobs Source: BLS, LWC, BRAC Analysis. *Technical dates of the recession are 12/2007 to 6/2009, but greatest negative job effects felt in Baton Rouge metro area in 1/2010
RETAIL FUEL SALES IN THE REGION AND STATE ARE TRENDING TOWARD PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS Retail fuel sales hit their Retail Fuel Sales highest over-the-year number Louisiana 17% 20% since the start of the Greater Baton Rouge 15% pandemic, despite static 10% Linear (Greater Baton Rouge) mobility numbers overall. 0% The trendline illustrates that -10% despite several down weeks in the last month, Capital Region -20% fuel sales have a strong growth -30% trend toward 2019 sales numbers. -40% -50%
WHILE HOTEL OCCUPANCY HAS BEGUN TO APPROACH 2019 RATES, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS HAVE PLATEAUED AT A RELATIVELY HIGH LEVEL Hotel Occupancy Weekly Combined UI Claims 80% 70,000 64,218 58,007 70% 64% 60,000 60% 53% 50,000 50% 40,000 40% 30,000 30% 20,000 20% 10,000 10% 2,192 0% 0 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 11-Jul 18-Jul 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun 13-Jun 20-Jun 27-Jun 11-Jul 18-Jul 6-Jun 4-Jul 4-Jul 2019 2020 Number of Claims Source: STR; LWC; BRAC Analysis.
CONSUMER SPENDING HAS REBOUNDED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LATE MARCH Consumer spending has hovered around pre- pandemic levels in Livingston Ascension and Ascension Livingston, and is approaching it in EBR. East Baton Rouge Consumer spending has Regional low point been buoyed by federal unemployment enhancement. If the benefits completely stop, there is concern spending will drop. Source: Opportunity Insights (data through 7/12/20); BRAC Analysis.
REGIONAL PARISHES THAT HAVE SEEN SMALL BUSINESS CLOSURES HAVE ALSO SEEN A DECREASE IN SMALL BUSINESS REVENUES Small business opening numbers improved in the Ascension first two weeks of July, but that does not include East Baton Rouge the mandated bar Livingston closures. Small business revenue seems to be correlated to small businesses open – revenue in Ascension is up over pre-pandemic numbers, while EBR and Livingston are down. Source: Opportunity Insights (data through 7/13/20); BRAC Analysis.
BATON ROUGE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY WHEN COMPARED TO PEER CITIES While East Baton Rouge is Baton Rouge, LA Birmingham, AL Columbia, SC Greenville, SC Little Rock, AR Louisville, KY slightly down in all three 15.0% metrics, the metrics are much more varied in other 10.0% urban centers. 5.0% This outcome indicates how closely tied small 0.0% business is to the overall economic health of the -5.0% City-Parish. -10.0% With enhanced unemployment set to -15.0% expire if there is no federal intervention, consumer -20.0% spending and small business revenues may dip. Consumer Spending Small Business Rev. Small Businesses Open Source: Opportunity Insights, county level data (consumer spending data through week ending 7/12/20, all other data through 7/14/20); BRAC Analysis.
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