Available Water Determinations (AWD) NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment – Water | Deep Singh November 2019
How is an AWD made? Government assumes an extremely dry outlook • Low risk – 99% Requirements codified in Water Sharing Plan • Distributed from NSW’s share of the Murray • Priority of access to water (towns, domestic, stock, …) • Planned Environmental allowances Annual accounting (July - June) Page 2
Step 1: Assess the supply • Water in storage • Inflows near certain to eventuate • Water in transit that can be reregulated • IVT • Snowy
Step 2: Assess existing commitments Essential / Fixed Requirements • Existing allocation • Environmental Water Accounts System Losses • Evaporation • Transmission • Operational 2 nd year reserves
Step 3: Assess for AWD - =
Step 4: Announce AWD General General Security Security Carryover Reserves Towns, S&D Env Water High Security Conveyance Page 6
How is an AWD made? Page 7
AWDs in the NSW Murray • Shared system between NSW, Victoria and SA. • NSW and Victoria share the headwater storages and supply SA. • Sharing arrangement governed by the Murray Darling Basin Agreement. Page 8
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AWDs in the NSW Murray • Shared system between NSW, Victoria and SA. • NSW and Victoria share the headwater storages and supply SA. • Sharing arrangement governed by the Murray Darling Basin Agreement. • Menindee is a shared resource if it is above 480/640 GL trigger level. • Inflows upstream of Albury shared between NSW and Vic. • Inflows downstream of Albury belong to generating state. • Inflows from the Lower Darling are shared when Menindee is a shared resource, otherwise they are NSW inflows. Page 10
River Murray system – shared resource Page 11
Climate Conditions Page 12
Allocation Summary General Average 2019-20 High Security Drought Stage Security Carryover 97% 0% Murray 18% Stage 2 Stage 4 Lower Darling 30% 0% 19% Page 13
Resource Distribution (Nov 2019) e-water Total = 960 GL (36* GL) consumptive use 2020/21 high (264* GL) priority needs 126 GL Total Reserves GS Carryover 61 GL 300 GL Wakool Allowance 70 GL Towns, S&D 58 GL Rules-based Env Water 21 GL High Security Conveyance 184 GL (97%)** 140 GL * indicative breakdown of held environmental water holdings (OEH, TLM, CEWH), refer to note ** includes <1GL (100%) for HS subcategory Page 14
Water Balance November 2019 4000 Supply Distribution - NSW share (1) Water in storage Estimated use since 1 July 3600 IVT Forecast minimum inflows 3200 Commitments Distribution - NSW share (1) Evaporation River losses upstream of SA 2800 SA dilution flow SA non-dilution entitlement MDB Agreement required reserves 2400 Gigalitres (GL) Water available for allocation (refer to pie chart) 2000 214 100 203 1600 960 1200 113 291 800 1,540 203 400 350 139 0 Supply Commitments Distribution Distribution Page 15
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Comparison to Nov 2018 Mid Nov Mid Nov Item Comments 2018 (GL) 2019 (GL) NSW share of total resources 1,035 960 Low resource due to continuation of dry less conditions. Carryover 520 300 Lower carryover. Environmental 72 21 Primarily RMIF. 58 Broken Hill pipeline Towns, Stock, Domestic 54 entitlement added. Conveyance 150 140 Similar. 70 Higher due to June/July Wakool Loss 40 2019 inflows. High Security 185 184 Similar. Higher in anticipation of continued dry conditions, Reserves 14 187 from cumulative resource improvements. 0 Same. Zero due to lack of General Security 0 resource. Page 17
NSW Murray Valley Outlook as at 15 November 2019 1-Dec-19 1-Feb-20 Allocation Probability Gigalitres Probability Allocation 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 50% 0% GS Alloc. 0% GS Alloc. 1000 0% GS Alloc. 99% 99% 0% GS Alloc. as at 15 Nov 2019 Carryover Carryover 500 Conveyance Conveyance Reserves Reserves Environmental Environmental HS HS TW, S&D TW, S&D 0 This figure provides indicative improvements in general security allocations for two forecast snapshots, 1 December 2019 and 1 February 2020. The allocation improvements are indicative only, and do not constitute guaranteed allocations. As of 15 November 2019, General Security allocation is at 0 per cent, and under 99% inflow conditions, will remain the same for the rest of the water year. Page 18
NSW Murray Valley Outlook NSW Murray Valley Outlook as at 15 August 2019 as at 15 November 2019 1-Dec-19 1-Feb-20 1-Oct-19 1-Feb-20 Allocation Probability Gigalitres Probability Allocation Allocation Probability Gigalitres Probability Allocation 3500 3500 3000 3000 2500 2500 2000 2000 50% 30% GS Alloc. 1500 1500 75% 9% GS Alloc. 8% GS Alloc. 50% 0% GS Alloc. 75% 90% 0% GS Alloc. 50% 0% GS Alloc. 0% GS Alloc. 1000 1000 0% GS Alloc. 99% 99% 0% GS Alloc. as at 15 Nov 2019 0% GS Alloc. 90% Carryover Carryover 0% GS Alloc. 99% 99% 0% GS Alloc. as at 15 Aug 2019 Carryover Carryover Conveyance 500 Conveyance 500 Reserves Reserves Environmental Environmental Conveyance Conveyance HS HS Environmental Environmental TW, S&D TW, S&D HS HS TW, S&D TW, S&D 0 0 This figure provides indicative improvements in general security allocations for two forecast snapshots, 1 October 2019 and 1 February This figure provides indicative improvements in general security allocations for two forecast snapshots, 1 December 2019 and 1 February 2020. The allocation improvements are indicative only, and do not constitute guaranteed allocations. As of 15 August 2019, General 2020. The allocation improvements are indicative only, and do not constitute guaranteed allocations. As of 15 November 2019, General Security allocation is at 0 per cent, and under 99% inflow conditions, will remain the same for the rest of the water year. Security allocation is at 0 per cent, and under 99% inflow conditions, will remain the same for the rest of the water year. Page 19
Climate Outlook Page 20
ENSO Page 21
IOD Page 22
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2017/18 and 2018/19 RMS Inflows Page 26
0.12 0.1 General Security AWD 17/18 0.08 GS AWD 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 Date Page 27
Water Availability since 2016 C/O Forward Year Usage (GL) AWD + CO (GL) Trade Out (GL) (GL) 2015/16 860 1330 - 20 450 2016/17 1370 2400 210 730 2017/18 1540 2050 - 80 520 2018/19 695 950 - 85 300 Page 28
Bulk Sharing Water In Storages - end of October 2019 NSW - Hume 570 GL TOTAL = 3592 GL NSW = 1370 GL (38%) Vic = 1880 GL (52%) SA = 342 GL (10%) NSW - Lake Victoria Vic - Dartmouth 230 GL 1140 GL NSW - Dartmouth 570 GL Vic - Lake Victoria 170 GL SA - Hume 0 GL Vic - Hume SA - Dartmouth 570 GL SA - Lake Victoria 342 GL 0 GL Page 29
Entitlement Volumes (Approximate) NSW Murray ~ 2250 GL* Victoria ~ 1600 GL SA ~ 750 GL Approximate values from https://www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-markets-trade/water-markets-product-information *Excluding supplementary entitlement Page 30
Thank you Water Allocation Statements https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/water MDBA Weekly Report https://www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/weekly-reports WaterNSW Weekly Report https://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/regional-nsw/availability Thank you Page 31
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