Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji 1
Growth in the region remains strong... Growth Projections: World and Selected Asia (Percent change from a year earlier) Pacific Emerging Euro and Island New Developing World U.S. Area Japan China India* States Australia Zealand ASEAN-5* Asia 2016 3.2 1.5 1.8 0.9 6.4 6.7 7.1 4.9 2.6 3.6 2.6 2017 3.7 2.3 2.4 1.8 6.5 6.8 6.7 5.3 2.2 3.5 3.3 2018 3.9 2.7 2.2 1.2 6.5 6.6 7.4 5.3 2.9 3.0 3.4 Revision 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A from Oct. 2017 2019 3.9 2.5 1.9 0.9 6.6 6.4 7.8 5.3 3.1 2.5 3.1 Revision 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A from Oct. 2017 Source: World Economic Outlook, Fall 2017, and World Economic Outlook Update, January 2018. Note: Figures for India are on a fiscal year basis. ASEAN-5 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. 2
…and it contributes most to global growth. Contribution to Growth and Growth Rate (percent, PPP-adjusted) IMF Projection 100% 7.0 90% 6.0 80% 5.0 70% 60% 4.0 50% 3.0 40% 30% 2.0 20% 1.0 10% 0% 0.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Asia Western hemisphere Europe Middle East & Central Asia Africa Growth rate - Global (RHS) Growth rate - Asia (RHS) Source: IMF Staff estimates. 3
Asia’s exports expand on the back of the upswing in other regions. Exports to Major Destinations (in percent; year-over-year growth) 30 40 25 30 20 15 20 10 5 10 0 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 0 -5 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 -10 -10 -15 -20 -20 to U.S. to Euro area to Japan to China Source: Haver Analytics 4
…and the region’s domestic demand is also strong, boosting imports... Contributions to Projected Growth (Year-over-year; percentage points) 9 Net exports Investment Consumption Growth 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 1 Asia Australia, Japan, China East Asia India ASEAN New Zealand (excluding China) Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. 1 ASEAN includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5
…and contributing to the reduction in current account balances. Asia: Current Account Balances (Percent of GDP) 2015 2016 2017 (Estimate) 2018 (Projection) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1 Australia, Japan, East Asia ASEAN China India Indonesia New Zealand (excluding China) Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. 1 ASEAN includes Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. 6
China’s growth is rebalancing, however, the country still faces a large credit gap Source: IMF Staff estimates. 7
Medium-term risks and vulnerabilities are tilted to the downside Major risks and vulnerabilities on the horizon: (1) Tightening of financial conditions; (2) Retreat from global integration, and geo-political uncertainties; (3) Population aging; 8
(1) Market participants expect US monetary policy to sustain cyclical growth… US FOMC participants expect a faster US: Contribution to Growth tightening than market participants (percent, q/q seasonally adjusted, annualized) (percent, FF rate projections) 6 5.0 5 4 4.0 3 3.0 2 1 2.0 0 -1 1.0 -2 Private Consumption Private Investment 0.0 -3 Residential Investment Government Expenditures 2018 2019 2020 Inventories -4 Source: CME, as of March 21 Source: Haver Analytics Note: Blue dots indicate the median projection. Red dots indicate the effective rate implied by the year-end Fed Fund future price. 9
…and capital inflows to emerging countries have remained positive... Total Portfolio Flows (Billions of U.S. dollars) 60 Africa & Middle East Emerging Europe Latin America Emerging Asia 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 Sources: National Sources; Bloomberg Finance L.P.; and Institute of International Finance. 10
…but financial conditions have also increased vulnerabilities. Fast Credit Growth and Wide Credit Gap (Percent of GDP) 350 300 Hong Kong SAR 250 200 Thailand China 150 Korea Singapore Malaysia 100 Indonesia Vietnam 50 Mongolia Cambodia 0 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Notes: Total credit to the private nonfinancial sector. Sources: Bank for International Settlements; and IMF staff estimates. 11
(2) Threats to global economic integration have become more acute. Impact of Tariffs on China’s GDP Impact of Tariffs on US GDP (Percent deviation from baseline on account of unilateral or (Percent deviation from baseline on account of unilateral or bilateral 10 percent tariff) bilateral 10 percent tariff) 0.00 0.0 Unilateral Tariffs -0.02 Bilateral Tariffs -0.04 -0.3 -0.06 -0.08 -0.10 -0.6 -0.12 Unilateral Tariffs -0.14 Bilateral Tariffs -0.9 -0.16 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Years Years Source: IMF staff estimates. Source: IMF staff estimates. 12
(3) Many parts of Asia are at risk of growing old before becoming rich. 13
The favorable position provides an opportunity to implement ambitious structural reforms. Main Challenge Key structural policy recommendations China Growth targets should be de-emphasized and the focus Credit growth should be more on the quality and sustainability of growth. Addressing corporate and banking sector balance sheet Corporate and banking sector India weaknesses is key to safeguard financial stability and strains support credit growth and private investment. A comprehensive policy package of structural reforms Japan Reflation and fiscal sustainability combined with income and demand policies should help to reflate the economy and lift potential growth. Declining productivity growth Korea Enhance the role of women in the economy, and emphasize and demographic headwinds innovation, especially in SMEs. AUS and Promote housing affordability and supply through planning- Housing affordability and re- zoning reforms and infrastructure push. Recalibrate tax NZL calibrating investment incentives incentives. ASEAN Tackle structural constraints to growth such as the low Infrastructure gaps and quality quality of infrastructure. Small Natural disasters/climate change Restore fiscal discipline to build buffers. States 14
Conclusion: Key messages • The region is in a favorable position: growth remains strong. • Medium-term risks and vulnerabilities are tilted to the downside. • The “window for reforms” is now. 15
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