Ariane 501 Incident December 1, 1994 Ariane 4 at Three Levels of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Launch Failures � Ariane 501 Incident � December 1, 1994 � Ariane 4 � at Three Levels of Description � 70th flight � February 19, 1996 � Long March 3B � 501 Launch Events 1st flight � 501 Report Dates � � June 4, 1996 � 0 seconds � June 4-6, 1996 � Ariane 501 � H0 - main cryogenic � Initial reports of the � engine ignition � 1st flight � incident � 7 seconds � Liftoff � August 12, 1998 � Titan 4A � 36.7 seconds � Backup inertial reference � 20th flight � June 6 - July 19, 1996 � system inoperative due to � numerical overflow in � Intermediate reports � horizontal velocity � August 26, 1998 � Delta 3 � 37.2 seconds � Primary inertial reference � 1st flight � July 19, 1996 � system inoperative due to � Inquiry Board Report � numerical overflow in � horizontal velocity � Time � 37-38 seconds � (months) � July 20-26, 1996 � Booster and main engine � Reports based on � nozzles swivel, rocket veers � off course and breaks up � inquiry findings � from aerodynamic loads � 39 seconds � July 27 - September, 1996 � Automatic self-destruct � Comprehensive reports � 45 seconds � Range safety officer destruct � Time � Time � (days) � (secs.) �

“High Profit” Documents � Ariane 5 Flight 501 Failure: Report by the Inquiry Board (July 19, 1996) � Inertial Reference Software Error Blamed for Ariane 5 Failure; Defense � Daily (July 24, 1996) � � �� Software Design Flaw Destroyed Ariane 5; next flight in 1997; � � Aerospace Daily (July 24, 1996) � �� Ariane 5 Rocket Faces More Delay; The Financial Times Limited � � (July 24, 1996) � Flying Blind: Inadequate Testing led to the Software Breakdown that � Doomed Ariane 5; The Financial Times Limited (July 25, 1996) � Board Faults Ariane 5 Software; Aviation Week and Space Technology � (July 29, 1996) �� Ariane 5 Explosion Caused by Faulty Software; Satellite News � � (August 5, 1996) � Ariane 5 Report Details Software Design Errors ; Aviation Week and � Space Technology (September 9, 1996) �� Ariane 5 Loss Avoidable with Complete Testing; Aviation Week and � Space Technology (September 16, 1996) � ��

Titles/Dates are Weak Cues to Content �

Inaccurate Statements Resulting � From Inaccurate Information � • S3: the rocket blew up after 44 seconds � • S6: they reused the inertial guidance system from the Ariane 4 � • S5: the number overflowed because it was too large � • S6: inaccurate description of why the rocket unexpectedly swiveled � • S3: monetary loss could be recovered by insurance �

Participant 6’s Process Trace on Unexpected Swiveling �

Participant 7’s Process Trace on Unexpected Swiveling �

Inaccurate Statements Resulting � From Stale Information � • S9: the cause of the failure was mechanical � • S6, S7: the Cluster satellite program was discontinued � • S8: the 502 launch was originally scheduled for the first half of 97 � • S4: the original date for the 502 launch was May 1997 � • S6: the delay to the 502 launch was about 6 months �

Participant 6’s Process Trace on Cluster Satellite Program � “The immediate impact were that the solar wind experiment was destroyed. They couldn’t afford to build any more satellites so they couldn’t pursue that anymore.” �

Predicted 502 Launch Delays � Launch � Report � Announcement Date � Projected Launch Date � Date � Date � June 96 June 96 July September ‘96 � Prior to 501 Launch � July Aug Aug Sept Sept Right after 501 incident � Oct Oct December ‘96 � (June 4, ‘96) � Nov Nov Dec Dec After Inquiry Board Report � Jan 97 Jan 97 March - June ‘97 � (July 19, ‘96) � Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr December ‘96 � July ‘97 � May May June June July July March ‘97 � September ‘97 � Aug Aug Sept Sept Actual 502 � Oct Oct October 30, ‘97 � Launch Date � Nov Nov

Process Traces on 502 Launch Delays � Main Updates � Participant 4 � Participant 5 � Participant 6 � Report � Launch � Report � Launch � Report � Launch � Report � Launch � � � Date Date Date � Date � Date � Date � Date � Date � June 96 June 96 July July Aug Aug Sept Sept Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan 97 Jan 97 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May June June July July Aug Aug Sept Sept Oct Oct Nov Nov

Participant 6 Briefing: “It delayed the next launch about six months” � Report � Launch � Article Date/Content � Participant’s Response � Date � Date � June 96 June 96 July July June 4, 1996: � nothing � Aug Aug A few months from now � Sept Sept Oct Oct June 6, 1996: � nothing � Nov Nov Delayed for at least six months � Dec Dec Jan 97 Jan 97 June 5, 1996: � Feb Feb “…it delayed the Within next few months � Mar Mar second test launch” � Apr Apr May July 25, 1996 � May June June Postponed to mid- � nothing � July July semester 1997 � Aug Aug Sept Sept July 5, 1996: � Oct Oct nothing � In or around June 1997 � Nov Nov

Participant 4 Briefing: “Impacts…delay of second flight of Ariane 5.” � � � �� Report � Launch � Article Date/Content � Participant’s Response � Date � Date � June 96 June 96 June 4, 1996: � “Second launch scheduled July July for June 16, 97” (can’t tell if Launch preparation will � Aug Aug that is a delay from original begin June 16 � Sept Sept schedule) � Oct Oct “Second launch scheduled Nov Nov October 13, 1997: � for October 28” (would like Dec Dec Rescheduled to Oct. 28, 1997. to find out when second Jan 97 Initially scheduled for June 1997, Jan 97 launch was originally Feb reset to Sept. 15, then Sept. 30 � Feb scheduled) � Mar Mar Apr Apr March 27, 1997: � “Originally set for May May Put back to mid Sept…initially � 1997.” (thinks should get the May set for May, put back to June, � actual date the flight June June then July � occurred) � July July Aug Aug “So it was originally October 30, 1997: � Sept Sept scheduled to be launched in Today Ariane 5 rocket was Oct Oct May and it was launched in successfully launched � Nov Nov October.” �

Participant 5 briefing: � “The next flight of the vehicle was scheduled already. Apparently one article said the first six months of 97. I looked at another article that said March or April and I saw another that said it was going to happen in July, so it was getting backed off and the final launch, I believe, was in October. The second launch, the 502 vehicle, which is Ariane 502.” � Report Date � Launch Date � Article Date/Content � Participant’s Response � June 96 June 96 July July 25, 1996: mid-semester 1997 � nothing � July Aug (wants to see actual Aug March 25, 1997: until at least September � 502 launch date) � Sept Sept June 5, 1996: within the next few months � nothing � Oct Oct Nov Nov (notes the launch October 30, 1997: today...launched � Dec Dec anomaly on 502) � Jan 97 Jan 97 June 4, 1996: a few months from now � nothing � Feb Feb Mar July 28, 1996: first half of 1997 � “predicts delay for 502” � Mar Apr Apr June 5, 1996: early 1997 � nothing � May May June June June 6, 1996: later this year � nothing � July July “delay qualification � June 10, 1996: early 1997 � Aug Aug of Ariane 5” � Sept Sept July 24, 1996: March at the earliest � nothing � Oct Oct Nov Nov July 24, 1996: mid-1997 � “next flight in 1997” �

Cues to “Data Quality” � Source � Document � Description � Reputation for credibility � Temporal relationship � Temporal relationship � to events (do not have all � to updates (can be � the information right away) � “stale”) � Reputation of bias � Amount quoted directly � Level of sensationalism � from official document � Reputation for expertise � Technical language � in a particular area � Distance from the original � data: secondhand, translated � If given official � Length � responsibility to do � an analysis � Depth and breadth of � theme coverage �

Types of Documents � On topic: � contains information that is relevant to the task at hand � High-profit: � detailed, accurate description of important events from a credible, low bias source � Comprehensive: � long, on-topic, article from a credible, low-bias source that is not immediately after the event and not overly distanced from the original data � Peripheral mentions: � documents that reference the event briefly but whose focus is on items of low relevance to the user’s tasks and goals � Unrelated collections: � documents that contain many unrelated themes that are not ordered in a meaningful way � Themed: � documents that address a single particular theme �

Circumscribed roles for active “intelligence” � � Mixed initiative cooperation Analyst � Machine � • Directly manipulate � • Structure � • Select � • Seed � • Expand/ Contract � • Followup � • Add � • Learn � • Define � • Remind � • Critique �