ARC 2010: 01 Enrolment Presentation October 7 , 2 0 1 0 SCDSB - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ARC 2010: 01 Enrolment Presentation October 7 , 2 0 1 0 SCDSB Property and Planning Dept. 1

Geographic Information System (GIS) Central database Computer Mapping Application of Data Compiling And Analysis by School Student and School Development Unit School Attendance Infrastructure Data Location/Data Data Areas (ie: road/density) (address/program etc) 9 2

3 Base Drawing

Secondary Plan Area 4

5 Student Density

School Enrolment Capacity Ministry Rated On The Ground (OTG) Primary Class Audit each room by Apply Ministry Rating Apply Ministry Rating Each School Apply Ministry Loading Revise Ministry Rated Update SFIS Web Capacity Effective OTG Capacity 26 6

Enrolment Projections Existing Community New Community Historic 5 Year Historic 5 Year Current Enrolment Retention by Grade Retention by Grade By School by School Calculate New Pupil Yield Total Enrolment Calculate New Pupil Core Enrolment By School Identify Development Interim Enrolment By School Special Program Incorporate New Pupils Enrolment Phased in by School Existing Community New Community Projection By School Projection by School Base 20 Year Projection By School 7 18

Enrolment Methodology JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SE Total FTE 2005 35 27 36 35 38 40 41 47 39 41 16 391.5 360.5 2006 26 1.357 48 1.241 34 1.169 42 1.043 36 0.907 34 0.813 33 0.852 35 1.032 48 0.974 38 14 385.5 348.8 2007 33 1.250 33 1.147 55 1.075 36 1.120 47 1.153 42 1.000 34 1.031 34 1.232 43 1.042 50 24 428.0 395.3 2008 30 1.030 34 0.908 30 0.991 54 0.931 34 0.935 44 0.807 34 0.985 34 1.075 36 1.000 43 26 395.5 363.5 2009 32 33 35 35 54 30 43 36 37 41 17 390.5 358.0 1.100 1.029 1.169 0.991 0.896 0.977 1.060 1.104 1.139 2010 31 1.000 32 1.000 33 0.914 32 1.014 35 0.953 51 0.767 23 1.059 45 0.986 35 1.027 38 21 376.0 344.5 1.043 1.015 0.993 0.995 0.923 0.989 1.035 1.049 1.036 2011 31 1.043 32 1.015 32 0.993 33 0.983 31 0.927 32 0.989 50 1.051 24 1.054 47 1.049 37 21 372.2 340.5 2012 31 32 33 32 32 29 32 53 25 50 21 370.2 338.5 1.043 1.015 0.973 0.983 0.927 0.985 1.048 1.054 1.050 2013 31 1.046 32 1.015 33 0.973 32 0.993 31 0.925 30 0.985 29 1.045 33 1.049 55 1.060 27 21 354.9 323.1 2014 31 32 33 32 32 29 29 30 35 58 21 361.7 330.1 1.035 1.012 0.969 0.994 0.931 0.987 1.048 1.038 1.045 2015 31 1.042 32 1.014 33 0.980 32 0.989 31 0.926 29 0.987 29 1.047 31 1.049 32 1.048 36 21 337.3 305.7 2016 31 1.042 32 1.014 33 0.978 32 0.988 32 0.927 29 0.986 29 1.046 30 1.049 32 1.050 33 21 334.4 302.7 2017 31 32 33 32 31 29 29 30 32 34 21 334.6 302.9 1.042 1.014 0.975 0.989 0.927 0.986 1.047 1.048 1.051 2018 31 1.042 32 1.014 33 0.975 32 0.991 32 0.927 29 0.986 29 1.047 30 1.047 32 1.051 33 21 333.9 302.3 2019 31 32 33 32 32 29 29 30 32 33 21 333.9 302.3 1.041 1.013 0.975 0.990 0.928 0.986 1.047 1.046 1.049 2020 31 1.042 32 1.014 33 0.977 32 0.990 32 0.927 29 0.986 29 1.047 30 1.048 32 1.050 33 21 333.9 302.3 Flat line JK enrolm ent Retention rate for m ovem ent of Flat line SE students from grade to grade Enrolment Discounted retention rate due to Retention rate average Total bodies and abnomoly of 5 previous years Full Time Equilivant Existing grade enrolm ent tim es 5 year retention average results in projected 8 grade enrolment for next year

Enrolment � Historic, Current and 15 year projections � Relationship of enrolment to school capacity � Areas of growth, areas of decline � Illustrates areas that may need consideration to balance between schools on a local basis 9

Byng PS: 2010 Enrolment by Grade 45 40 35 30 Students 25 20 15 10 5 0 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade 10

Byng PS Enrolment: History, Actual, Projected 350 300 Ministry Capacity: 291 250 200 Students 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Year Note: Enrolment based on Full Day Kindergarten 11

Accommodation Impact Byng PS OTG: 291 Status Quo 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 100% Utilization 100% Utilization 83% Utilization 80% Utilization 104% Utilization 2011 2015 2020 Option 100% Utilization 83% Utilization 80% Utilization 12

Clearview Meadows ES: 2010 Enrolment by Grade 45 40 35 30 Students 25 20 15 10 5 0 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade 13

C learv iew M eadow s ES: H istory, Actual, Projected 350 300 250 Students 200 Ministry Capacity: 201 Status Quo Option 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Year 14

Accommodation Impact Clearview Meadows ES Accommodation OTG: 201 Status Quo 2005 2010 2020 95% Utilization 119% Utilization 123% Utilization 132% Utilization 132% Utilization 2011 2015 2020 Option Transfer of 7 students from Duntroon Central PS to Clearview Meadows ES in September 2011 126% Utilization 135% Utilization 135% Utilization 15

Duntroon Central PS: 2010 Enrolment by Grade 35 30 25 20 tudents S 15 10 5 0 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade 16

Duntroon Central PS Enrolment: History, Actual, Projected 350 300 250 200 Students 150 Ministry Capacity: 121 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Year 17

Accommodation Impact Duntroon Central PS Accommodation OTG: 121 Status Quo 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 93% Utilization 80% Utilization 80% Utilization 64% Utilization 64% Utilization 2011 Transfer of 7 students from Duntroon Central PS to Clearview Meadows ES Option in September 2011 Transfer of 40 students from Duntroon Central PS to Nottawasag Creemore ES in September 2011 Transfer of 36 students from Duntroon Central PS to Nottawa ES in September 2011 18

Nottawa ES: 2010 Enrolment by Grade 35 30 25 20 Students 15 10 5 0 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade 19

Nottawa ES: History, Actual, Projeced 350 300 250 Ministry Capacity: 210 200 Year Status Quo Option 150 100 50 0 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Students 20

Accommodation Impact Nottawa PS Accommodation OTG: 210 Status Quo 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 94% Utilization 79% Utilization 114% Utilization 119% Utilization 129% Utilization 2011 2015 2020 Option Transfer of 36 students from Duntroon Central PS to Nottawa ES in September 2011 96% Utilization 110% Utilization 130% Utilization 21

Nottawasaga Creemore ES: 2010 Enrolment by Grade 35 30 25 20 tudents S 15 10 5 0 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade 22

Nottawasaga Creemore ES: History, Actual, Projected 350 300 Ministry Capacity: 279 250 nts 200 tude Status Quo Option S 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Year 23

Accommodation Impact Nottawasaga Creemore ES Accommodation OTG: 279 Status Quo 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 99% Utilization 88% Utilization 82% Utilization 69% Utilization 65% Utilization 2011 2015 2020 Option Transfer of 42 students from Duntroon Central PS to Nottawasaga Creemore ES in September 2011 97% Utilization 84% Utilization 80% Utilization 24

ARC 2010 Enrolment by Grade 150 100 ts n e d tu S 50 0 JK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Grade 25

Total ARC Enrolment: History, Actual, Projected 1400 1200 1000 Ministry Capacity: 1102 Ministry Capacity: 981 800 ts n e d tu S 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Year 26

Accommodation Impact ARC 2010:01 Accommodation OTG: 1102 Status Quo 2005 2010 2011 2015 2020 100% Utilization 97% Utilization 88% Utilization 83% Utilization 110% Utilization 2011 2015 2020 OTG reduced from 1102 to 981 Option ( Less Duntroon Central PS) in September 2011 100% Utilization 93% Utilization 110% Utilization 27