Applying System Dynamics to Children’s Social Care in England UK Chapter er System Dynamics cs Societ ety An Annual Confer ference nce 2018
Systems / Science Complexity Evidence THE LAB Services / User-Centred Interventions Design UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
BA BACK CKGRO ROUND UND Funding for children’s services in England has been and continues to be drastically cut. Most local authorities will have experienced a 40% cut between 2010 and 2020. Early intervention and prevention has been integrated into children services, but at times of deep budget cuts they are the natural place to start making savings. Many local authorities believe that the number of children in care is a function of need in the community, and that they have little control over numbers. UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
HYPOTHESIS OTHESIS 1 200 The numbers of Blackpool CMD = 63% children in care are LAC rate = 184 St. Helens 150 CMD = 47% not explained solely Stockon-on-Tees LAC rate = 117 by need; other factors CMD = 47% LAC rate (per 10,000) LAC rate = 101 that are within the City of London CMD = 2% Darlington control of the local LAC rate = 103 100 CMD = 51% LAC rate = 96 authority explain Lancashire much of the variation. CMD = 48% LAC rate = 75 50 Bradford CMD = 65% LAC rate = 66 System behaviours Waltham Forest contribute to the CMD = 48% number of children in R ² = 0.34778 LAC rate = 42 0 care. 0 20 40 60 80 Child Material Deprivation (%) UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
HYPOTHESIS OTHESIS 2 Reducing the number of children in care is within the control of the Local Authority. UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
HYPOTHESIS OTHESIS 3 There is no conclusive evidence to show that care improves outcomes for children. Reducing the number of children in care will not cause harm. UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
HYPOTHESIS OTHESIS 4 1. Need greatly exceeds the services available 23% 2. Not all children with high need are accessing services 3. There are children receiving 12% services that aren’t high need All children (9-16) Children with high levels of need There is always Children receiving high end services more need than service. UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
PROPO POSITI SITION ON In order to meet savings targets, local authorities could make cuts to the deep end rather than early intervention. This can be done by safely reducing the number of children in care. Due to the complex nature of the social care system, we are using System Dynamics to understand how this can be done best. UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
Stockton-on-Tees Council UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
THE ROLE E OF SY SYSTE STEM M DYNAMICS AMICS Simulating Focus staff Identifying Mapping the Understanding potential around a intervention system behaviours interventions problem points WORKS KSHO HOPS PS & FOCUS S GROUP UPS SIMUL ULATIO TION N MODELLING LLING UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
THE ROLE E OF SY SYSTE STEM M DYNAMICS AMICS Simulating Focus staff Identifying Mapping the Understanding potential around a intervention system behaviours interventions problem points WORKS KSHO HOPS PS & FOCUS S GROUP UPS SIMUL ULATIO TION N MODELLING LLING UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
FOCU CUS S ST STAF AFF F AR AROUND ND A SP A SPECIFIC CIFIC PROBL BLEM UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
THE ROLE E OF SY SYSTE STEM M DYNAMICS AMICS Simulating Focus staff Identifying Mapping the Understanding potential around a intervention system behaviours interventions problem points WORKS KSHO HOPS PS & FOCUS S GROUP UPS SIMUL ULATIO TION N MODELLING LLING UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
UNDER ERSTA STANDING NDING THE LOCAL AL DYNAMICS AMICS R3b R1b Continuity�of�social�worker + - Number�of�children R2b returning�home - + + - Intervention� quality Number�of�children�in�care + Agency�workers + Tolerance� for� risk - Number�of�social�workers B1 Available�capacity Continuity� of� social� worker - + - - Workload R2a R4 + Number�of�children Illness�and�burnout becoming�LAC + - - + + R1a Stress R3a - Supervision - Intervention�quality - + Culture�to�take + children�into�care - Workforce Experience�level development of�social�works + Tolerance�for�risk + - Leadership UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
UNDER ERSTA STANDING NDING THE LOCAL AL DYNAMICS AMICS UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
THE ROLE E OF SY SYSTE STEM M DYNAMICS AMICS Simulating Focus staff Identifying Mapping the Understanding potential around a intervention system behaviours interventions problem points WORKS KSHO HOPS PS & FOCUS S GROUP UPS SIMUL ULATIO TION N MODELLING LLING UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
SI SIMULATION LATION MODEL DELLING ING UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
IDENTIFYING NTIFYING INTERVENTION ERVENTION POINTS NTS Total�LAC 800 650 500 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Years No�intervention Reduce�CIN�inflow Increase�CIN�outflow Reduce�CP�inflow Increase�CP�outflow Reduce�CIN�to�LAC Reduce�CP�to�LAC Increase�LAC�exits UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
TESTING STING ST STRATE ATEGIES GIES UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
PROCESS CESS INSIG SIGHTS TS The e pr process cess of group up model del bu buildi ding g has s be been n va valuable able in its tsel elf 1. Connecting people from across the system 2. Providing an understanding of the system as a whole 3. Staff understanding the interdependence of behaviour 4. Providing alignment between staff at all levels 5. Generating clarity around how complex decisions are made 6. Refining strategies for intervention in the system UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
LEARNING ARNING 1. Once you have a model it tends to be treated as an oracle Clarity rity and d do document mentati ation on around und qu questi tions ons th the e mode del l can a and d canno not t answ swer er UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
LEARNING ARNING 2. Agreeing on a reference mode to focus the model is difficult Questi tioning oning initi tial al re reference rence mode des s and d sp spending nding ti time se seek eking ing alignm nmen ent t on th the e ke key focus UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
LEARNING ARNING 3. Transitioning from the exploration phase to a model brings expectations that everything is modelled Use se a sm small all, , highly hly enga gaged ged model delling ing group p with thin n th the e local al auth thority ority UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
LEARNING ARNING 4. Explaining flow and accumulation Acti tivi viti ties es sp specif ifical cally ly around und accumul mulation ation ri right ht at t th the start UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
LEARNING ARNING 5. Difficult to model intangibles (e.g. case complexity) Small all group p of engaged gaged so social ial worker ers s for r de deeper eper insi sights ghts and d focuse sed d re review views s of literatu ature re UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
LEARNING ARNING 6. Identifying an intervention point doesn’t tell you how to intervene Expl plori oring ng th the be best t pr practice tice literatu ature re and d filling g gaps ps in evide idence ce with th se service ice de desig sign UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
LEARNING ARNING 7. Administrative data is often not enough to understand complex system behaviours (e.g. intake reasons) Case se file analy alysis sis to su supp pplement ment gaps ps UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
OPPO PORTU RTUNITIES NITIES • Preliminary model insights to work with Using best practice literature and service design to make • changes around intervention points • Modelling out additional structural changes Identifying potential indicators of change • • Lasting tool for strategic thinking UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
QUESTIO STIONS NS UK Chapter System Dynamics Society Annual Conference 2018
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