Applying SE to Securing the Energy Future Level 4 - Public 2017 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2017 Applying SE to Securing the Energy Future Level 4 - Public

2017 Our Energy Future is at Risk • Our Critical Infrastructure is at high risk from High-Impact threats • EMP • Space Weather • Cyber (Industrial Controls) • Wanted: systemic approaches for critical infrastructure protection and recovery • complex systems & modeling approaches • resilience and agility • decision & prioritization tools 2 Level 4 - Public

2017 Critical Infrastructures 1) Chemical and other industrial 8) Healthcare and Public Health bases 9) Information Technology 2) Communications 10) Nuclear Reactors, Materials, 3) Electrical & Energy production and Waste & distribution 11) Transportation 4) Emergency Services 12) Water storage, treatment and 5) Financial Services distribution 6) Food and Agriculture 13) Waste handling and disposal (water, refuse, hazardous) 7) Government Services & Facilities 14) Society at large page 3 Level 4 - Public

2017 EMP in Brief • High-Altitude Nuclear Blast causes significant EM pulse • E1, E2, E3 • Demonstrated by US and Russian atmospheric nuclear blast tests • Even small weapons have a wide effect • Included in war strategies • US, NATO, China, Russia, Iran, Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea page 4 Level 4 - Public

2017 Space Weather in Brief • Caused by interaction of high-energy particles from coronal mass ejection with the Earth’s magnetic field • Geomagnetically Induced Currents • Results in waveforms similar to EMP E3 • Small to moderate storms are common & impactful • equipment failures • communications and air traffic disruptions • Large Storms could have wide-spread impact • Carrington Event • 2012 Near-miss page 5 Level 4 - Public

2017 Cyber Attack in Brief 295 critical infrastructure incidents were reported by U.S. companies in 2015 - Security • Industrial Control Systems at Risk Intelligence: ICS-CERT Reports 2015 Infrastructure Attacks • Possible to destroy equipment and cause death 70% of the world’s power, • Multiple attack paths water, and critical infrastructure providers • Internal and external vulnerabilities reported a breach in the past • Loss of visibility of your true system status year, which led to a loss of confidential information or a • Loss of control disruption in operations . - • Active warfare Security Week: Unisys & Ponemon Institute 2014 Survey • Ukraine, Turkey, Iran examples • Recent US warning regarding the targeting of US- based utilities and industrial facilities page 6 Level 4 - Public

2017 Simple Infrastructure Model (Example) Energy Agriculture Transport Resource & Food Industries Industries Electric General Banking/ All Sectors Grid Population Finance Commun- ications Potable Waste Medical Water Water 7 Level 4 - Public

2017 Challenges • Understanding threats • Understanding critical infrastructure domains • Understanding cross-domain interactions • Gaining cooperation within and across domains • Sensitivity of information • Verifiability of concepts and solutions • Rapid evolution of threats and domains • Scale of the problem • Capturing Information in SE products, architecture, requirements, life cycle, etc. to support decision makers Challenge: Bring systems perspectives and solutions to this hyper-complex problem Level 4 - Public

2017 Contributing to the Solution • International Council On Systems Engineering (INCOSE) created the Critical Infrastructure Protection and Recovery (CIPR) working group • Provide a forum to address CIPR issues • manmade and natural threats • disruptions for periods of a month or more. • systems engineering principles, practices, applications and solutions • Exchange knowledge, systems engineering information and solutions regarding CIPR • Develop systems engineering products (e.g. architectures, models, requirements, IV&V, etc. Level 4 - Public

2017 CIPR Goal Areas System Protection System Community Recovery Resilience Cross-Domain • • Resilience Secure Systems • • Agile System of Systems • • Resilient Complex Systems Level 4 - Public

2017 Systems Thinking & Practices • Systems engineers approach problems in a somewhat unique manner • Big Picture & integration of the whole • Lifecycle view considering all aspects of the problem (operations, evolving threats, failure modes, logistics, etc) • Ability to transition from operating concepts, requirements, science and technology to real world solutions • Requirements elicitation • Functional and performance requirements • Architectural alternatives development and selection • Verification and Validation methods Level 4 - Public

2017 CIPR Products • CIPR Edition of INCOSE INSIGHT (Dec 2016) • 16 articles on a wide range of topics • Contributions to InfraGard Publications and Events • EnergyTech Conferences (2015-2017) • Lean Startup of Infrastructure Projects • Microgrid Modeling Project • Community Resilience Models Level 4 - Public

2017 Microgrid Modeling Project System Context Interconnections 13 Functional Behaviors Level 4 - Public Model extracts generated by Sandy Friedenthal

2017 Community System IMPORT Distribution & Production Consumption EXPORT • Energy (electric, fuel, gas) • Water • Production Capacities • Energy (electric, fuel, gas) • Food • Storage • Water • People (skilled, general) • Consumption Rates • Food • Supplies (medical, • People (skilled, general) chemical, etc.) • Supplies (medical, • Finances chemical, etc.) • Finances What factors are critical to community resilience? 14 Level 4 - Public

2017 Agile Principles for Recovery • Independent Encapsulated • Distributed Control and Modules Information • Internal cohesion, loosely coupled • Decisions at the point of maximum knowledge • Facilitated Interfacing • Deferred Commitment • Standards, protocols • Resource commitments just in time • Peer to Peer interactions • Self-Organization • Self-determined, self-regulating page 15 Level 4 - Public Your Future at Risk – Are you Prepared? (deLamare, Walker, Juhasz, July 2016)

2017 Call to Interested Parties • Bring Systems Thinking and Practices to the Problem Space • Modeling of threats, infrastructure and alternatives • Development of Recovery Concepts and Planning Aids • Application of Resilience and Agility • Application of Security Approaches • Application of System of Systems Approaches • Application of Complex System Approaches Level 4 - Public

2017 External Outreach • InfraGard EMP SIG • White House Office of Science and Technology Policy • NASA • Science and Technology Policy Institute • IEEE • Project Management Institute • US Dept of Homeland Security • Center For Understanding Change • US Dept of Energy • Ohio Cuyahoga County Emergency • Ohio Dept of Homeland Security Management • US FBI • City of Cleveland Dept of Energy and • Foundation for Resilient Societies Policy • Energy Infrastructure Security Council • Various Universities • International Society for Automation Level 4 - Public

2017 CIPR Contacts • Mike de Lamare • madelama@bechtel.com • Mark Walker • lmw107@bct-llc.com • John Juhasz • Telepath.juhasz@yahoo.com Level 4 - Public