ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT Training Workshop and Inception Seminar, Bangkok, 3-8 th Feb 2019 Pilot River Basin Methodology and Action Plan Sedon, Lao PDR RBP team Sombath – Disaster Management Malabu – Climate Change Management Vanseng – Water Resource Management
2 RBP Introduction Table. Characteristics of Xedon River Basin Item Value Main river length About 260 km Catchment area About 7,300 km 2 Main river structures Dams, Dikes (under construction) Salavan Vapy Xedon river basin is a part of the Mekong river basin. Khongxedon The population within the basin was Xeset Dam about 591,436 in 2005 and increased to 620,790 in 2007. Bolaven Plateau People suffer from floods every year especially in the districts, Salavan, Vapy Selabam Dam and Khongxedon. ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
3 Flood Impacts in Lao PDR Floo Fl ood d imp mpac acts ts FY FY 20 2018 18 18 provinces • 17 province and capital 124 districts 2.382 villages city 126.736 households, 616.145 people, • 125 districts 58 dead, 32 missing, around 7.615 people were evacuated and living in • 2,433 villages the temporary shelters, and will • 649,493 peoples continue 2-3 years until their new houses were constructed. • 64 dead • 28 missing ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
4 FY 2018 ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
5 Disaster risk management system and challenges Challenges • Information sharing with line ministries • Limitation of the data in inventory • Disaster Risk and Hazard Map in detail are not available • Human resource/expert limited of the capacity on assessment ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
6 ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
7 Flood Situation in Xedon River Basin Flood Inundation situation Floods happen every year in Xedon river basin, and especially 2013, 2018 and 2011/2017 were severe flood years during the last decade. Floods hit village several times in a rainy season. For example, local people suffered from floods 7 times in 2018. Flood Damage Severe damage was caused by 2013 flood in agricultural area (especially rice fields), residential area, irrigation system, roads, schools, hospitals, etc. In case of Khongsedon district, 39,101 people were affected by the 2013 flood which equals to about 70% of the total population . Irrigation system and roads were damaged which were worth about 12.9 billion kip ( 1,548 thousand USD ) and 12.8 billion kip ( 1,536 thousand USD ), respectively. ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
8 The objectives of RBP To set up methodology of flood hazard and risk assessment for the target river basin To demonstrate the methodology for better understanding and to create a guideline incorporating examples and opinions from AMS To disseminate the demonstrated methodology to apply the other river basins ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
9 Agencies to be involved National project management committee Support team** River basin pilot project DOI (RBP) team** DOF Luang Champasak NDMO Prabang coordinator coordinator DOR DMH DWR DCCM meteorologist hydrologist hydrologist DOR hydrologist NDMO, MoLSW: National Disaster Management Office, Social Welfare Department, Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare DWR, MONRE : Department of Water Resources, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment DCCM, MONRE: Department of Climate Change Management, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment DMH, MONRE : Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment DOI, MAF : Department of Irrigation, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry DOF, MAF : Department of Forestry, Ministry o Agriculture and Forestry DOR, MPWT : Department of Roads, Ministry of Public Works and Transport (officer in charge of landslide risk assessment)* DOR, MPWT : Department of Rivers, Ministry of Public Works and Transport ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
10 Methodology for disaster risk assessment and mapping Runoff Model (with HEC-HMS) Flood hazards and risks will Input Output • Precipitation • River discharge hydrograph be analyzed with series of • Catchment area • Land use Data Storage System (with HEC-DSS) etc. • Soil type HEC software combining Impact of Climate Change runoff model, inundation Inundation Analysis Model (with HEC-RAS) model and damage model. Input Output • River cross section • Inundation depth • Manning’s N value • Inundation duration Outputs will be succeeded • Land use Flood Hazard Mapping • Discharge hydrograph etc. • Stage hydrograph as input of the next model. Flood Damage Analysis Model (with HEC-FDA) The impact of climate Input Output • Population • Affected people change will be incorporated • Property • Damage • Inundation depth Flood Risk Mapping etc. • Inundation duration to the increase of rainfall Figure. Flow chart of the methodology for and to the sea level rise. disaster risk assessment and mapping ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
11 Activity plan • Data collection for flood inundation modeling by the end of April, 2019 • Case visits in the Philippines, Malaysia and Japan to learn best practices in the countries (in March, July and November, 2019 respectively) • Technical transfer on runoff modeling and flood hazard modeling through collaborative work in the field study in May, 2019 • Develop a risk assessment guideline which is applicable for AMS incorporating knowledge and experiences of each country ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
12 Expected outputs/outcomes from RBP study • Flood hazard map and risk map of the target river basin • Capacity building through collaborative work with the RBP team and the project team • Recommendation • Preliminary planning for flood prevention and mitigation • Future developments by sharing the methodology and experiences in the country ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
13 Expectations for Capacity Building • Set up pool of experts for flood risk assessment by disseminating the experiences and knowledge in the project • Improve risk and capacity assessment to better target DRR interventions and support rapid analysis and end-to-end early warning ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
14 Expectations for the Guideline • Clarification of the target hazards and risks • Which information should be included in flood hazard maps and risk maps including examples from AMS • How to evaluate the vulnerability including examples from AMS • Guideline should be visualized to give better understandings (video lecture for online learning) ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
Thank you for your kind attention ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
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